you're right ...you have to go back to the price you paid for th ebonds to calculate your cost basis.
What we're talking about is how much a GUC Trust UNIT is worth....if one wanted to buy or sell one....based on the remaing assets to be distributed. BAsed on my calculations the market has these units price lower than their fair value.
A couple comments on your analysis.
1. I think there will be very little "Cash" distributed since the main assets are the stocks and warrants
2. You seem to have left off the B warrants. there are an equal number of A & B warrants
so, if there are 30 million gm stocks and 27 million A warrants....then there are 27 million B warrants as well. Then just take the price of all those and divide them by the GUC trust units distributed (30 million guc trusts units).
back of the nevelope calculation is
a little less than one gm share one A warrant one B warrant so $20 plus $12 plus $8
I figure mtlqu worth ~$30 near todays gm stock and warrant prices.
anyone else have any calculations?
back of the envelope calculation I'm Not sure of the exact numbers so please share your calculations.
one GUC unit for each $1,000 in bond claims......but some percentage of the total distributions were already received
total payout for each $1,000 which was approx
3.9 GM stocks
3.5 a warratns
3.5 B warrants
anyone know how much is left to payout 10%? say it is 10%
.39 gm stock X $21~ (current price) = 8.19
.35 A warrants X $12~ = 4.2
.35 B Warants? X $8~ = 2.8
so is the value approx $15?
any big brains with more details of the percentage of GM stocks and warrants to still distribute? with that data you can value the GUC Trust units if you want to sell them or hold them
back of the envelope calculation I'm Not sure of the exact numbers so please share your calculations.
one GUC unit for each 1,000 in bond claims......but some percentage of the total distributions were already received
total payout for each 1,000 which was approx
3.9 GM stocks
3.5 a warratns
3.5 B warrants
anyone know how much is left to payout 10%? say it is 10%
.39 gm stock X $21~ (current price) = 8.19
.35 A warrants X $12~ = 4.2
.35 B Warants? X $8~ = 2.8
so is the value approx $15?
any big brains with more details of the percentage of GM stocks and warrants to still distribute? with that data you can value the GUC Trust units if you want to sell them or hold them
back of the envelope calculation I'm Not sure of the exact numbers so please share your calculations.
one GUC unit for each 1,000 in bond claims......but some percentage of the total distributions were already received
total payout for each 1,000 which was approx
3.9 GM stocks
3.5 a warratns
3.5 B warrants
anyone know how much is left to payout 10%? say it is 10%
.39 gm stock X $21~ (current price) = 8.19
.35 A warrants X $12~ = 4.2
.35 B Warants? X $8~ = 2.8
so is the value approx $15?
any big brains with more details of the percentage of GM stocks and warrants to still distribute? with that data you can value the GUC Trust units if you want to sell them or hold them
I own both....the warrants of both.....as well as AIG warrants.
check it out...aig-wt, lnc-wt, hig-wt
its a good way to lever up your long position
Kind of crazy....will be loading up on MS, BAC, C and aig
source of this info is GUC trust FAQ page
The next distribution from the Trust is scheduled to occur as soon as promptly as practicable following January 1, 2012.
I'll start selling at $45
2013 call options
strike price
13.00 GM130119C00013000 11.50 total 24.50
2016 warrant exiration
strike
10.00 GM-WTA 14.50 total 24.50
this is as close as you can get with options and its not as good a deal because of the long expiration
Yes good caution.....that is why this suggestion is for LONG Term investors......not for traders.......However if you are LONG.....the expiration is years away (2016),,,,the B warrants are 2019,,,,,,,serious investors know this will be over $50 by then.......EASY...that is $26 PPS appreciation from here ...but your money today will get many more shares......each is going to get the same PPS appreciation.
good lick....expect a bump after the 9th of November
Can't believe the good fortune....opportunities like this where share price and company perfromance are misaligned and there exists a way to lever up with super long expiration. This deep "in the money" these LONG term warrants provide a way to lever up your long position at no real cost.
GM-WTA is currently 14.61 with a $10 strike price (GM $23.31) and 5 year expiration.
check out the bank warrants also....
Kind of small......hopefully we get the rest in January
SO big first distribution puny second and third and the rest in late Jan?
about 65% or GM sales are overseas.....not north america.......so that is where the growth is......labor cheaper....and taxes lower.....as well far fewer car owners per capita
thoughts?
you could have bought almost 2000 "A" warrants.....a better play for those that are long GM. $10 strike price.....this deep in teh money they are like a proxy for the stock and and will get all the appreciation the stock gets.
yup that's what i'm talkin bout
common at 21.75
"a" warrant give option to buy GM stock for $10 (price now $13.2) so $23.20 total cost of exercising warrant ....but this deep "in the money" it's a great way lever up you Long position,,,,,again one warrant is 13.20 vice on common 21.75...both will move up about the same.