I don't think AGCO is as good as DE. For a couple of reasons historically AGCO organic growth has been below DE. Even at the current time DE has grown earnings faster.
Also AGCO has reinvested 1.68 times its capex while Deere has done 1.2 X despite this huge influx of capital they have managed further growth.
On top of this, AGCO pays a 5% payout while Deere does 65-70%. So Deere is growing and spinning off excess cash. AKA Deere is far more attractive.
Obviously going forward I assume AGCO and DE will grow around their historical averages. If that is way off than that would change the analysis. But on almost all metrics DE is way better
Even in an off year i beat the market. Better than Buffett who has probably returned like 6 % on his stock picks this year
well I guess your glad then you're not beating the market by more than 2 times since i started my partnership.
lol this is just an off year for me and its mostly related to the ridiculous surge in the S&P of awful companies like Netflix. I can barely keep up. I don't expect stocks like Netflix to go up 400% next year so I should easily destroy the S&P going forward again
lol ya I mean we should all be happy. We all have overvalued positions because the market has gone up so much. And to find such an easy stock and such a great company trading at absurd prices is a wet dream
lol ya I said 30% sucks. Read u moron. I said I have done really poorly this year. I am barely beating the market
lol I am a godly investor. Though I will admit I have been pretty average in 2013. Up 30% and the market is up 28% (including dividends) Compared to last year I was up 42% compared to 16%. This is for the fund I manage.
I enjoyed reading the transcript. Management didn't shed a lot of good color on why the sales dropped there. I really hate acquisitions like that. They raised equity which is expensive to buy a company which had its sales decline 50%. That is quite concerning
don't email management chump. Every miss MNTX makes is your fault.
If you have a factual question to ask them, then email them. Like how did you calculate this but why be an annoyance to the company?
As mentioned you have to be careful with 100M companies.
A few concerning things
1) Earnings guidance hints at only 41 cents a share in Q4 2013 indicating as like last year that the company's results are lumpy and that its harder to tell if they have turned a corner.
2) MHPS is weird. They marked down a lot of inventory in Q1 and Q2 and that helps profitability in MHPS for future quarters. Have they been able to reduce MHPS's inventory costs overall?
3) Was it just a lucky quarter in MHPS. Since they perhaps pushed sales to this quarter
4) guidance wasnt really raised the tax rate changed.
Anyways even with the "good resuts" the company has yet to show it can grow revenue. Margins are improves yes,. But its hard to say 2015 is so realistic when they lose revenue every quarter.
Ya it was a good report but at these levels its not much to get excited about. However its nice to see them sort of turn around mhps .
I'm not putting new money since I know of stocks 50% undervalued still such as Deere .
Also mntx up 10% on research reports is bogus . that shouldn't move a stock
Ya a good report . it didn't change my valuation I pegged them earning that ! Its still cheap not as cheap when I recommended it at 58. It's no longer my favorite .
Anyways I think what happened is the stock is still 30% undervalued the earnings report only affirmed that so people are taking a breather. Though I wouldn't be putting new money into Cof at the moment . however I am holding all my shares from 58 still
Yes I would like it to be spun off to us .
Here is the thing black Rock is a great company but it substantially lowers pnc,'s equity value. You have a business with a market value of 10b earning 500m for PNC or an roe of like 5%. It also hurts pncs leverage . it really adds no strategic value also .
PNC + 20% of black Rock black Rock inside PNC . anyways hopefully its spun off since blk has gone up so much in value it would be nice to get out at the top
ya I mean people like me won't ever get a stock like KKD. But you made money on it so thats good!
why anyone would pay $1.5 B for a company with 10% growth making $20 M annually is beyond me.
Why would someone trust a company that reports NON GAAP and adds back the income taxes they pay?
Anyways ya you made money but I would argue you should not have. You just got lucky. But at the end of the day it doesn't matter. But going forward future positions like KDD will surely lose you money.
I like COF a little more than DE. I would own both so I do!
Yes Terex $4 in 2015 seem appropriate. But there are risks to that for sure. $60 would be overvalued for Terex for $4 in 2015 unless they proved they could pay a nice 60-70% payout ratio (I include repurchases in the payout) and have 10% growth.
My next big bet is on John Deere after doing quite a bit of research. I modeled in some earnings declines the next couple of year at 5% followed by pretty conservative growth after that. I also bought 2015 calls.
However this valuation really doesn't consider the huge upside going forward in Agriculture. It just doesn't make any sense that a company with a payout of 70% or so averaging 20% growth over the last 20 years sells at a PE of 9.
Anyways I think this company will outperform going forward.
My last big bet was COF in May up 19% to the markets 4% but I sold Terex to buy it. So I am only outperforming Terex since I sold it by about 2.5%. Terex stock has done a lot better than I expected given the information. Anyways I am much happier in COF over Terex.
I am also much happier owning Deere at the moment than Terex.