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Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. Message Board

jamessmarson3 86 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 16, 2015 11:12 AM Member since: Sep 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Operating Cash flow, James

    by masonpennysmith Jun 10, 2015 7:41 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 16, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    yeah the amortization is in the line in their 10-k.

    I think you should build your model by the segments and not from the top down since there is huge variability in each segment.

  • Reply to

    Operating Cash flow, James

    by masonpennysmith Jun 10, 2015 7:41 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 16, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Are you in the ballpark in terms of valuation? or in terms of Terex's normalized earnings?

    In terms of valuation I think this year 330-380 would be a fair estimate for 2014 free cash flow pre-tax but if I were you I would think about it after-tax since tax is a real expense. Also you may have done this but ensure you also add back amortization since MHPS has about 40M of that.

    Not sure your comment on dividends and buybacks since that doesn't effect free cash flow. Dividends and buybacks are what you do with FCF it doesn't affect it.

    Also I think Terex is a business that should have rapid growth over the next few years so I would think the growth rate you choose is more important than the base earnings. However I think the base earnings for this year is in the ballpark.

  • Reply to

    Why I Still Think Someone Will Blink

    by combined_ratio Jun 15, 2015 9:17 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 15, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    lol blocked

  • Reply to

    Who Will Prevail in Shareholder Vote?

    by combined_ratio May 22, 2015 10:04 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 11, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Its hard to know really. I think $130 is a fair discount to $137.5 given the risk and closing time of that transaction. The 5% discount isn't out of the realm of possibility. However I do agree that the transactions looking more likely with AXS

  • Reply to

    Manitowoc...

    by hrosenldgt56a Jun 6, 2015 4:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 10, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    lol I think MTW is pretty mismanaged

    1) It has 2 completely different companies it owns that it now has to split off.
    2) MTW made a terrible overbid for Enodis in 2008 where the whole company is now worth 66% of the purchase price
    3) MTW has a terrible financial position with over negative $1 B of tangible equity
    4) MTW has huge debt relative to their earnings.

    Somehow MTW is a darling of the stock market. I don't really get it.

    Anyways I will be curious to see how they breakup cranes and food. I am hoping their crane division is cheap and I'd consider looking at them.

    I take Terex every day of the week at 25.25 over MTW at 20

  • Reply to

    Asset backed securitization...

    by hrosenldgt56a Jun 1, 2015 10:18 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 6, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Yeah but stuff like this doesn't affect long term value. I really don't care if Terex moves up .5% on a given day.

  • Reply to

    Asset backed securitization...

    by hrosenldgt56a Jun 1, 2015 10:18 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 5, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    no one disagrees with you but doing it is kind of built into any model going forward. Terex has outlined the efficiencies themselves they hope to achieve.

  • Reply to

    Asset backed securitization...

    by hrosenldgt56a Jun 1, 2015 10:18 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 4, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    lol are you serious? It's a positive but very minor and don't read anything into it. Terex making smart financial decisions and optimizing interest cost and working capital is built into everyones model already.

  • Reply to

    Ten Percent in two Days

    by gecco007 May 29, 2015 10:03 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 29, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    yeah maybe, I am not concerned though.

  • Reply to

    James is On Mark...

    by gecco007 May 28, 2015 4:55 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 28, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    yeah people always try to point to a reason for things. It didn't drop because of their investor presentation.

    I only look for the news because sometimes Terex will actually issue a release on something and the stock could have gone down on that. I searched for 20 minutes this morning and found no credible reason for the move.

    When a stock spikes lower or higher there is typically some news element accompanying the move. However Terex is a weird stock and I have seen it spike both ways over the years with little news.

    The news people are pointing too is wrong. Terex used the word challenging just as many times in their may 15 annual meeting presentation.

    CMCO reported their Q today. That maybe was it where one investor went mental unloading Terex based on that??? Not sure. Either way there was no credible reason why it sold off today. But why today and not other days? I think it sold off based on CMCO. Which is incredibly dumb as CMCO is a tiny company. Just TEX's chart this morning kind of mirrors that company.

    As a real investor though this is unimportant since its 1 random day swing. And finding the reason is a waste of time because there was no credible reason for the drop at the end of the day. You won't find one no matter how hard you search

  • Reply to

    why down today 6%?

    by drglrd1101 May 28, 2015 12:03 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 28, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    No I wouldn't pay attention. I own Deere and last week some analyst said their would be a liquidity crunch for Deere farmers because farmers balance sheet from their talks are weak. However Farm balance sheets according to the USDA are the best ever. So this opinion made no sense. Anyways Deere was down 5% that day and is now up since then.

    The day meant nothing.

    Having said that, that opinion was more significant than today. Today there was literally no reason for the drop. Terex doesn't update guidance mid quarter so there couldn't be anything that they said.

    On volume no I don't pay attention to that.

    I would only pay attention to really news that Terex publishes. I would analyse it and see if it was positive or negative. Today nothing was said either way.

    As a long term investor today you can't really care about.

  • Reply to

    why down today 6%?

    by drglrd1101 May 28, 2015 12:03 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 28, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    I don't think todays a relevant day in Terex history. Just ignore it nothing happened.

  • Reply to

    why down today 6%?

    by drglrd1101 May 28, 2015 12:03 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 28, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    The slidedeck for the 27th presentation is the same as the 20th.

    Maybe DeFeo went off script in the 27th one but since I've followed TEX for a long time I know this isn't the case.

    When u hold Terex for a while you learn to appreciate the random spikes down and up that comes with holding this company.

    Also on the poster who can't even find the presentation himself. Are you seriously questioning me? Do you know who I am?

    A guy who can't even find the presentation himself is going to argue with me on whats what. That's not right.

  • Reply to

    why down today 6%?

    by drglrd1101 May 28, 2015 12:03 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 28, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    nah, don't buy that, that presenation says nothing new to what they have highlighted in like 3-4 presentations since Q1.

    One big owner is clearly randomly liquidating today. TEX stock has seen big spikes up 8% for no reason. No big surprise to see a random spike down for no reason.

  • Reply to

    Who Will Prevail in Shareholder Vote?

    by combined_ratio May 22, 2015 10:04 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 22, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    I'm the DB? I am the one making real opinions and facts and CR's posts are:

    1) The drama is far from over
    2) We will get more
    3) I have made lots of money in PRE

    I haven't seen him say anything educated yet. I don't know why you would be upset with me for making real opinions on the stock.

    And no one said this is a zero sum game. That makes no sense. You don't either lose 100% of your money or get the EXOR deal. That's what a zero sum game is and I never said or implied that.

  • Reply to

    Who Will Prevail in Shareholder Vote?

    by combined_ratio May 22, 2015 10:04 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 22, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Where does it say PRE's management is against the deal?

    As I said 2 days ago pretending to negotiate with EXOR was pure manipulation on the part of PRE so that they could tell shareholders to vote for AXS and can pretend they considered EXOR.

    The fact is your equity stake's value is now very contingent on the AXS deal or the EXOR merger. So if you felt the EXOR deal was very superior you should have sold the stock as I said at $135-136 range.

    Now onto who has been right the most. You may have had 1 good prediction on the special dividend. In my mind this was dumb by AXS as I think the AXS deal was superior then though this current deal is far better for PRE shareholders.

    However since then I have been right on AXS refusing to raise their offer, and PRE pretending to negotiate with EXOR.

    Since then you have been wrong on everything.

  • Reply to

    Who Will Prevail in Shareholder Vote?

    by combined_ratio May 22, 2015 10:04 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 22, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    management's recommendation holds a lot of sway.

    So is it still a great time to be a PRE shareholder? BAHAHAHAHA

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 22, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    lol the PRE board just gave EXOR the finger. You should have sold LMAO!!!

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 21, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    There are no speculated rumors for PRE at this point except EXOR. While AXS has a clear bidder in Arch.

    Sure the drama may not be over but a betting man would say it is.

  • Reply to

    PartnerRe Board Willing to Negotiate with EXOR

    by combined_ratio May 20, 2015 11:01 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 21, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    where do you get from AXS saying they won't raise the price to your logic of them raising the price.

    Yeah if you continue to twist everything into an increased bid for PRE then yeah continue to delude yourself into thinking someone will increase the offer.

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