yeah the amortization is in the line in their 10-k.
I think you should build your model by the segments and not from the top down since there is huge variability in each segment.
Are you in the ballpark in terms of valuation? or in terms of Terex's normalized earnings?
In terms of valuation I think this year 330-380 would be a fair estimate for 2014 free cash flow pre-tax but if I were you I would think about it after-tax since tax is a real expense. Also you may have done this but ensure you also add back amortization since MHPS has about 40M of that.
Not sure your comment on dividends and buybacks since that doesn't effect free cash flow. Dividends and buybacks are what you do with FCF it doesn't affect it.
Also I think Terex is a business that should have rapid growth over the next few years so I would think the growth rate you choose is more important than the base earnings. However I think the base earnings for this year is in the ballpark.
Its hard to know really. I think $130 is a fair discount to $137.5 given the risk and closing time of that transaction. The 5% discount isn't out of the realm of possibility. However I do agree that the transactions looking more likely with AXS
lol I think MTW is pretty mismanaged
1) It has 2 completely different companies it owns that it now has to split off.
2) MTW made a terrible overbid for Enodis in 2008 where the whole company is now worth 66% of the purchase price
3) MTW has a terrible financial position with over negative $1 B of tangible equity
4) MTW has huge debt relative to their earnings.
Somehow MTW is a darling of the stock market. I don't really get it.
Anyways I will be curious to see how they breakup cranes and food. I am hoping their crane division is cheap and I'd consider looking at them.
I take Terex every day of the week at 25.25 over MTW at 20
Yeah but stuff like this doesn't affect long term value. I really don't care if Terex moves up .5% on a given day.
no one disagrees with you but doing it is kind of built into any model going forward. Terex has outlined the efficiencies themselves they hope to achieve.
lol are you serious? It's a positive but very minor and don't read anything into it. Terex making smart financial decisions and optimizing interest cost and working capital is built into everyones model already.
yeah people always try to point to a reason for things. It didn't drop because of their investor presentation.
I only look for the news because sometimes Terex will actually issue a release on something and the stock could have gone down on that. I searched for 20 minutes this morning and found no credible reason for the move.
When a stock spikes lower or higher there is typically some news element accompanying the move. However Terex is a weird stock and I have seen it spike both ways over the years with little news.
The news people are pointing too is wrong. Terex used the word challenging just as many times in their may 15 annual meeting presentation.
CMCO reported their Q today. That maybe was it where one investor went mental unloading Terex based on that??? Not sure. Either way there was no credible reason why it sold off today. But why today and not other days? I think it sold off based on CMCO. Which is incredibly dumb as CMCO is a tiny company. Just TEX's chart this morning kind of mirrors that company.
As a real investor though this is unimportant since its 1 random day swing. And finding the reason is a waste of time because there was no credible reason for the drop at the end of the day. You won't find one no matter how hard you search
No I wouldn't pay attention. I own Deere and last week some analyst said their would be a liquidity crunch for Deere farmers because farmers balance sheet from their talks are weak. However Farm balance sheets according to the USDA are the best ever. So this opinion made no sense. Anyways Deere was down 5% that day and is now up since then.
The day meant nothing.
Having said that, that opinion was more significant than today. Today there was literally no reason for the drop. Terex doesn't update guidance mid quarter so there couldn't be anything that they said.
On volume no I don't pay attention to that.
I would only pay attention to really news that Terex publishes. I would analyse it and see if it was positive or negative. Today nothing was said either way.
As a long term investor today you can't really care about.
The slidedeck for the 27th presentation is the same as the 20th.
Maybe DeFeo went off script in the 27th one but since I've followed TEX for a long time I know this isn't the case.
When u hold Terex for a while you learn to appreciate the random spikes down and up that comes with holding this company.
Also on the poster who can't even find the presentation himself. Are you seriously questioning me? Do you know who I am?
A guy who can't even find the presentation himself is going to argue with me on whats what. That's not right.
nah, don't buy that, that presenation says nothing new to what they have highlighted in like 3-4 presentations since Q1.
One big owner is clearly randomly liquidating today. TEX stock has seen big spikes up 8% for no reason. No big surprise to see a random spike down for no reason.
I'm the DB? I am the one making real opinions and facts and CR's posts are:
1) The drama is far from over
2) We will get more
3) I have made lots of money in PRE
I haven't seen him say anything educated yet. I don't know why you would be upset with me for making real opinions on the stock.
And no one said this is a zero sum game. That makes no sense. You don't either lose 100% of your money or get the EXOR deal. That's what a zero sum game is and I never said or implied that.
Where does it say PRE's management is against the deal?
As I said 2 days ago pretending to negotiate with EXOR was pure manipulation on the part of PRE so that they could tell shareholders to vote for AXS and can pretend they considered EXOR.
The fact is your equity stake's value is now very contingent on the AXS deal or the EXOR merger. So if you felt the EXOR deal was very superior you should have sold the stock as I said at $135-136 range.
Now onto who has been right the most. You may have had 1 good prediction on the special dividend. In my mind this was dumb by AXS as I think the AXS deal was superior then though this current deal is far better for PRE shareholders.
However since then I have been right on AXS refusing to raise their offer, and PRE pretending to negotiate with EXOR.
Since then you have been wrong on everything.
management's recommendation holds a lot of sway.
So is it still a great time to be a PRE shareholder? BAHAHAHAHA
There are no speculated rumors for PRE at this point except EXOR. While AXS has a clear bidder in Arch.
Sure the drama may not be over but a betting man would say it is.
where do you get from AXS saying they won't raise the price to your logic of them raising the price.
Yeah if you continue to twist everything into an increased bid for PRE then yeah continue to delude yourself into thinking someone will increase the offer.