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BB&T Corporation Message Board

jamessmarson3 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 4, 2014 2:05 PM Member since: Sep 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    question to James

    by casper_g_chen Apr 2, 2014 2:16 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 4, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    All right, so I see your using a few financial metrics. I am thinking those are not the most appropriate metrics given SDRL's business which is buy capital and pretty much rent it out. The capital they have little control over, the price they have little control over.

    This company should be easy to value using a DCF. But before wasting time on that. You can see they made around $300M of normalized profit in Q1. Adding back interest expense would show they made around $400M X 4 run rate is 1.6 B on $22B of capital so a ROIC of around 7% which is below their discount rate.

    Anyways maybe I will do one going forward and sit down and really think about it. For these kind of companies i deem, Dividend, PEG and other common metrics as inappropriate. It should almost be valued like a mining stock.

  • Reply to

    question to James

    by casper_g_chen Apr 2, 2014 2:16 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 2, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    I will try to take a look into it going forward but let me know what you liked about it.

    Anything that particularly drew you to this stock? I see the rig market isn't doing so well on the other hand this company seems to be selling off some assets and redistributing cash to stockholders.

    A couple of things on quick glance
    1) The valuation is acceptable and looks compelling on a quick superficial glance
    2) You wonder why they are going so hot and heavy on the dividend when they have large debt and their stock appears to be cheap. Obviously a buyback would make more sense.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 29, 2014 11:17 PM Flag

    ya I am investing in DE and AXS heavily right now. I also am researching Tesco and others. I also still have big positions in PNC, COF. But banks are no longer that undervalued. The casualty insurance is the new banking sector. The discount AXS is getting to tangible book makes no sense.

    I know people don't like casualty insurance but their prices are super good. you get to buy AXS under tangible book value when they have historically earned returns well above their discount rate. I think its at least 50% undervalued. These stocks are also highly leveraged for rising interest rates which will greatly increase their ROE's.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 29, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    lol, that's their business you bozo. Lending to subprime people is fine as long as you plan to do it.

    If I give $10 to 10 criminals who promise to give me $20 in return as long as I know historically 6 do then I profit by $20.

    So yes lots of bad loans but also super high interest rates. Which together make the model work. What doesn't work is contracting same store sales

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 15, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    All the people here jumped ship and now post on the MNTX board. I don't find MNTX compelling enough to research it more. I don't think people realize the risk of betting on a microcap/ 20% growth for a microcap doesn't mean a 20 PE etc. There is substantially more risk

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 15, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    yes, gecco is back. I miss the days of destroying everyone bearish on TEX. Now its just me being a bear on TEX! How times have changed. I guess 200%+ profits on a stock can lead to changing opinions!

    KKD still sucks Gecco

  • Reply to

    This is BS

    by dahuey2001 May 5, 2014 1:11 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 5, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    As of right now
    MTW up 57% in the last year
    S&P 11%

    MTW's earnings were flat year over year. Seems like you have no excuse for you

  • Reply to

    can someone explain this to me? please....

    by irenecarol May 2, 2014 9:31 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 2, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    The fact is only day trader's follow analyst estimates. They affects results for a day or 2 but at the end of the day earnings matter.

    Lets see mTW limited growth a #$%$ financial position trading at now a forward 25 PE or so. Ya that makes sense.

    The market was hoping earnings would far exceed analyst estimates. It was below.

  • Reply to

    April 25, 2013 - The day the king died

    by jamessmarson3 Apr 30, 2014 6:36 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 1, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    I would argue even at $30 today Terex isn't so attractive though. The 2015 results are a figment of DeFeo's imagination.

    The fact is it makes no sense that Terex can really increase OE when they can't increase earnings Q/Q. What are we to believe 100% of the work is done in 1 year while the status quo remains until then?

  • Reply to

    April 25, 2013 - The day the king died

    by jamessmarson3 Apr 30, 2014 6:36 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 1, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    well when it was at $30 the market was substantially lower so there were far better alternatives.

    It was pretty obvious the market would push up TEX on its results. The market's a joke in 2013-2014. It doesnt care at all about fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    April 25, 2013 - The day the king died

    by jamessmarson3 Apr 30, 2014 6:36 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Apr 30, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    That was the day I cried and sold Tex stock. Since then the stock has moved up 43% and my stock I put my TEX money into (COF) has only moved up 27%.

    However I believe this was the right play. Just like I felt buying Terex was the right play in 2011 when it was at $10.

    I really don't understand how the market would punish TEX so bad in 2011 for nothing. And in 2014 it seems businesses like TEX, OSK, MTW, CAT are rewarded for producing mediocre results.

    Terex is still my favourite stock but how can anyone be long with a good concious at $43 when the company can't grow revenue in 2 years? Yet somehow is going to grow earnings by 200% by 2015.

    At some point in time you have to say well ya if you are going to get to $5 a share in 2015 and you say that at the end of 2012 well you would probably earn $3 in 2013, $4 in 2014 and $5 in 2015. How can we even trust any amount in 2015 when once again 2014 is up in the air. It is not so clear they hit the $2.4-2.7.

    If thye were going to hit it. Q1 would have shown a huge improvement to last year.

  • 2013 "Outlook: The Company’s overall outlook for fiscal year 2013 financial performance is consistent with our prior view, although our segment guidance now reflects the new reporting structure. Mr. DeFeo added, “Terex remains focused on improving profit through organic means, integrating the businesses more thoroughly, and generating consistent free cash flow. We reiterate our annual outlook of earnings per share to be between $2.40 and $2.70 per share, excluding restructuring and other unusual items, on net sales of between $7.9 billion and $8.3 billion.”"

    Outlook 2014: “The Company’s overall outlook for 2014 has not changed,” Mr. DeFeo added. “We expect continued strength from our AWP segment and improvement from our other segments throughout the remainder of 2014. We reiterate our annual outlook for earnings per share of between $2.50 and $2.80, excluding restructuring and other unusual items, on net sales of between $7.3 billion and $7.7 billion. Terex remains focused on improving profit through organic means, integrating the businesses more thoroughly, and generating free cash flow.

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