yeah people always try to point to a reason for things. It didn't drop because of their investor presentation.
I only look for the news because sometimes Terex will actually issue a release on something and the stock could have gone down on that. I searched for 20 minutes this morning and found no credible reason for the move.
When a stock spikes lower or higher there is typically some news element accompanying the move. However Terex is a weird stock and I have seen it spike both ways over the years with little news.
The news people are pointing too is wrong. Terex used the word challenging just as many times in their may 15 annual meeting presentation.
CMCO reported their Q today. That maybe was it where one investor went mental unloading Terex based on that??? Not sure. Either way there was no credible reason why it sold off today. But why today and not other days? I think it sold off based on CMCO. Which is incredibly dumb as CMCO is a tiny company. Just TEX's chart this morning kind of mirrors that company.
As a real investor though this is unimportant since its 1 random day swing. And finding the reason is a waste of time because there was no credible reason for the drop at the end of the day. You won't find one no matter how hard you search
No I wouldn't pay attention. I own Deere and last week some analyst said their would be a liquidity crunch for Deere farmers because farmers balance sheet from their talks are weak. However Farm balance sheets according to the USDA are the best ever. So this opinion made no sense. Anyways Deere was down 5% that day and is now up since then.
The day meant nothing.
Having said that, that opinion was more significant than today. Today there was literally no reason for the drop. Terex doesn't update guidance mid quarter so there couldn't be anything that they said.
On volume no I don't pay attention to that.
I would only pay attention to really news that Terex publishes. I would analyse it and see if it was positive or negative. Today nothing was said either way.
As a long term investor today you can't really care about.
The slidedeck for the 27th presentation is the same as the 20th.
Maybe DeFeo went off script in the 27th one but since I've followed TEX for a long time I know this isn't the case.
When u hold Terex for a while you learn to appreciate the random spikes down and up that comes with holding this company.
Also on the poster who can't even find the presentation himself. Are you seriously questioning me? Do you know who I am?
A guy who can't even find the presentation himself is going to argue with me on whats what. That's not right.
nah, don't buy that, that presenation says nothing new to what they have highlighted in like 3-4 presentations since Q1.
One big owner is clearly randomly liquidating today. TEX stock has seen big spikes up 8% for no reason. No big surprise to see a random spike down for no reason.
I'm the DB? I am the one making real opinions and facts and CR's posts are:
1) The drama is far from over
2) We will get more
3) I have made lots of money in PRE
I haven't seen him say anything educated yet. I don't know why you would be upset with me for making real opinions on the stock.
And no one said this is a zero sum game. That makes no sense. You don't either lose 100% of your money or get the EXOR deal. That's what a zero sum game is and I never said or implied that.
Where does it say PRE's management is against the deal?
As I said 2 days ago pretending to negotiate with EXOR was pure manipulation on the part of PRE so that they could tell shareholders to vote for AXS and can pretend they considered EXOR.
The fact is your equity stake's value is now very contingent on the AXS deal or the EXOR merger. So if you felt the EXOR deal was very superior you should have sold the stock as I said at $135-136 range.
Now onto who has been right the most. You may have had 1 good prediction on the special dividend. In my mind this was dumb by AXS as I think the AXS deal was superior then though this current deal is far better for PRE shareholders.
However since then I have been right on AXS refusing to raise their offer, and PRE pretending to negotiate with EXOR.
Since then you have been wrong on everything.
management's recommendation holds a lot of sway.
So is it still a great time to be a PRE shareholder? BAHAHAHAHA
There are no speculated rumors for PRE at this point except EXOR. While AXS has a clear bidder in Arch.
Sure the drama may not be over but a betting man would say it is.
where do you get from AXS saying they won't raise the price to your logic of them raising the price.
Yeah if you continue to twist everything into an increased bid for PRE then yeah continue to delude yourself into thinking someone will increase the offer.
Cash is king is a mantra said by some but it is an ideology that Warren Buffett disagrees with. If you really thought cash was king you would not invest and get buried by inflation.
This is what I wanted as an AXS holder anyways so I am happy. I want PRE holders to vote on whatever transaction they want.
As an AXS holder I would be happier if PRE chooses EXOR but I believe in the combined company as well.
Sometimes manipulation is getting others to do what you want without them knowing it.
PRE wants you to vote for the AXS transaction but by showing they are working with EXOR they can show it is a fair process and shareholders can feel that management has considered both options.
The EXOR transaction has significant risks as highlighted by PRE
1) Exor can cancel the transaction at any time. They should bear at least the $315 M AXS fee if not more fo failing to close
2) A specified time frame to closure
3) Is $137.5 really a fair value? Essentially that value will be around a 5% premium to tangible book which is quite low even in the industry right now of depressed valuations.
But as I said this shows PRE is working with EXOR. Management will still recommend the AXS transaction and we know that EXOR can't raise the price anymore. So the main point part 3, PRE will never be in favor of. But now they can say we are working with EXOR.
If I was a PRE shareholder I would vote for the AXS deal. If i was an AXS holder who got to vote PRE stock I would vote for the EXOR . Everyone in AXS wants PRE to do something dumb. However I wouldn't be mad if the merger happened. It is still a good deal.
I told you they said they wouldn't raise the price. Remember PRE wanted the original transaction more than AXS. They came to AXS who turned them down at first.
I could see Buffett bidding $120 a share for the whole company.
Now onto the analyst report. Farm equity is near all-time highs, farm debt to equity near all time lows and debt to asset near all-time lows.
Maybe instead of talking to a few farmers this analyst should look at the numbers. The report is absurd.
but only for a day or 2! These reports are meaningless by the next trading day.
lol i can't believe people still sell on analyst opinions today.
Where is the report from JPM. Or is his whole thesis just a short quote that farmers face a laughable liquidity crunch despite their balance sheets being healthier than ever.
These analysts are jokers.
His opinion to me has already been forgotten.
your $20 logic is highly irrational because it makes the combined entity unsafe so that won't be happening.
Okay yeah didn't realize you enjoy making 3% returns. I make 30% a year and if a deal like this came out and I felt it would go through, I would probably be looking for something new.
Also when did I say EXOR lied about owning 10%? I said since EXOR owns 10% and they will be voting no then you could be confident in your screwed up logic that you believe that the EXOR deal will 100% go through.
But yeah you already answered the question. That you dont mind waiting a year for 1-2%. You're an awful investor compared to me thats all that says. 1-2% is unacceptable for me.
I'd sell my stock and at least put in an ETF SPY while waiting for a new idea.
if exor has such a large % of the vote and its so obvious their bid will win because of it (according to you) why don't you just sell your stock and get your gains?