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jamessmarson3 83 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Sep 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 3 hours ago Flag

    lol yeah because CAT builds generators for oil companies. Terex doesn't do that.

  • Reply to

    CAT

    by rayonman11 5 hours ago
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 5 hours ago Flag

    CAT's business at this point in time has very little to do with TEX. I wouldn't be concerned about anything they say. OshKosh's business re-affirmed 2015 earnings today and AWP is a large part of their business.

    AWP, Cranes, MHPS and MP have nothing to do with CAT. The construction segment has a bit to do but it is a very small segment which not much is expected from.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 5 hours ago Flag

    Again you don't know what growth means. Chinese GDP will still be higher next year than this meaning if anyone is counting on exporting to China for their growth since that is the only way GDP rises for a country then they will still export more good this year than last.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 6 hours ago Flag

    As long as the word growth is mentioned everything is higher.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 6 hours ago Flag

    lol what are you explaining? I think I am the one explaining what growth means to you.

    If you sold $90 apples in 2013 $180 in 2014 and $190 in 2015. Then growth slowed in 2015 but you are still selling more.

    Lower growth means higher EXPORTS. Because you are still producing more. Are you too stupid to know what the word growth means?

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 6 hours ago Flag

    affect is the verb we all know that but not everyone has time to edit their posts. Some of us work fulltime jobs unlike unemployed losers like yourself.

    LMAO do you not what growth means? Chinese GDP growth slows so they will export more this year you gigantic moron but it is growing slower.

    Second if China gets lets exports its GDP would grow quicker since the formula to calculate GDP is Consumer spending + Government expenditures + capital investment in China + Net Exports

    So if exports are lower from other countries than imports for China are lower and their exports assume flat so GDP is higher.

    Second it would be pretty weird for a company or country that if they don't do business in China or do less business would give up on profitable projects inside their own country. If anything its the other way around if they didn't do well in their own country they are less likely to expand to China.

    So yeah I wouldn't expect Tex's results to be much different. And as I said only clowns would focus like this on Macro economics. To think China is controlling Tex's share price or even consider it shows your stupidity.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 7 hours ago Flag

    You're writing and format awful so you better keep it short.

    Sure China has been an important global player but why would a company which doesn't do business in China be affected by them GROWING at 7% instead of 8%?

    Think about that you idiot.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 9 hours ago Flag

    No I answered your questions and you didn't bother to read the answers.

    Read above

    "What drives demand …
    - Energy (wind power, coal and natural gas generation, refinery rebuilds, power
    plant construction, etc.)
    - Infrastructure projects (bridges, public works, etc.)
    - Non-residential construction
    - Global trade that impacts port and railroad shipment volumes"

    Oil isn't even mention and their materials handling segment energy is 8% we can only guess oil is a small part of that.

    It shows oil is not significant and is a very minor part of their business. As I said if anything low oil prices helps them.

  • Cat's results have little to do with Terex. OSK also reported today and their main business AWP's was up 7% in sales. CAT said they see revenue declining next year based on lower mining results which has no affect on TEX because they don't do mining. And lower oil related revenue. CAT I assumed builds powerplants around oil fields . Also sales in China are down which does not affect TEX.

    So overall if I was the market god I would say Terex should be up today based on OSK. Cat's results have nothing to do with them.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 11 hours ago Flag

    keep your posts down they are too wordy to read.

    And yes I can tell you are clueless about Terex since you thought oil prices dropping will have a big affect on them.

    Furthermore you mention Chinese GDP numbers when they barely have a business in China.

    There are 2 scenarios 1) You don't know Terex or 2) Are an idiot bringing up trivial which have very little to do with the company

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 22 hours ago Flag

    It's a dumb question because you can read the 10-k here. Oh wait I can't post the link because yahoo sucks. But anyone can find Tex's annual.

    If you go back in the message board history you will see I bought the stock at $13 and sold at $30 on April 25, 2013. I then rebought last week at $22.

    Now I felt Tex stock was worth around $32-33 earlier this year and it traded around such a value. It declined because they reduced their earnings guidance significantly from 2.65 to about 2.35. They also said they don't expect much growth in their segments for the next year or so. This brought the stock down.

    I was already pricing this in to be honest in my model so my estimate didn't really change. However I am actually pretty impressed by their results this year. I do like that MHPS and construction have been controlled and no longer appear to be negatives.

    Now let's continue. TEREX SOLD it's MINING BUSINESS 3 years ago. So what the hell do they have to do with oil? And you're just all over the place in your analysis.

    If you can't understand Terex how can you understand Chinese GDP numbers? Buffett mentions many times that macro-economics barely means a damn thing when you invest since you know over time the economy is getting better.

    Now someone like you who understands very little is wasting his time with this????

    Why not just try to actually read Terex's annual report and understand what they do as opposed to reading this kind of macro stuff on oil and China. You have no idea what Terex does and you're invested in it.

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jan 26, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    For their cranes segment the only time they mention energy they say

    "What drives demand …
    - Energy (wind power, coal and natural gas generation, refinery rebuilds, power
    plant construction, etc.)
    - Infrastructure projects (bridges, public works, etc.)
    - Non-residential construction
    - Global trade that impacts port and railroad shipment volumes"

    Oil isn't even mention and their materials handling segment energy is 8% we can only guess oil is a small part of that.

    I don't even know why I am wasting my time answering these stupid questions. Do your own research LOL. Laughable analyst opinions. I needed a good laugh !!

  • Reply to

    Terex is significantly undervalued

    by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jan 26, 2015 7:01 PM Flag

    If by most exposed he means they mose lose 1% of their revenues from a drop in oil infrastructure projects compared to 0.9% for someone else than Terex is the most exposed.

    However I don't see much of their products have anything to do with oil, Maybe a couple of products.

    I would honestly steer clear of analyst reports. If the guy had a brain he would be an investor not an idiot #$%$ analyst.

  • jamessmarson3 by jamessmarson3 Jan 25, 2015 11:06 PM Flag

    Pretty much all the issues I had when I sold the stock in early 2013 have been corrected.

    Let's give a segment breakdown
    AWP is firing pretty well and in 2015 it should be firing even better. This segment likely makes around $380 M of operating profit in 2015
    Construction: This segment has been corrected but is obviously still quite poor. However I would expect a contribution to profit but under $30 M in 2014
    Cranes. Cranes has been disappointing but solidly profitable. I think this segment is a bit of a wildcard in 2014 and earnings could probably be around $50M to $200 M but I think $100 M is appropriate
    MHPS: While I am still 100% against this acquisition. This was one of the main reasons I sold the stock . They paid about $1.4 B for a company that has maybe made Terex $65 M after tax since the acquisition occurred in 2011. The acquisition was amateur from the get go with no way to control Demag for basically a year. And after that some of their management started leaving. The results started falling. However DeFeo has done a pretty good job turning it back into a growing part of the business and has brought up margins. I would expect this segment makes about $85 M in 2015 and that excludes the around $40 M of intangible amortization that you should addback to earnings as this charge has nothing to do with the earnings power of the company.
    MP segment you would expected around $82 of operating profit.

    Total this is $680M with interest expense of $100M addback amortization and with a 32% tax rate I would expect Terex to have earnings of around $3.6 in 2015.

    And I would expect this to grow quickly after. So basically your are buying a stock right here at a 6.3 forward PE. And this is why I am back in Terex stock.

  • Reply to

    Why is TEX even at $28/29 after that quarter

    by cbd0012003 Nov 2, 2014 11:54 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jan 20, 2015 10:41 PM Flag

    Lol hilarious.

    I bought back into Terex today. I've been waiting 2 years for this since I sold TEX is down 27% and the stock I bought is up 33%. Now is the time to get back intio Terex.

    You honestly don't find as many companies as TEX as communicative and honest with shareholders and goal setters.

    Countering that they have been really bad at hitting guidance but I think it has more to do with the market rather them being poor at predicting. I think they are poor on either side.

    However at this point in time they trade at like 6-7 times forward earnings. Though I haven't finished crunching the numbers on my 2015 projections. It's kind of hard to find this kind of deal at this point anywhere.

  • Reply to

    PDCE

    by cbd0012003 Dec 13, 2014 11:54 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Dec 15, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    1) Knowing proved developed and proved undeveloped
    2) Knowing bOE/D
    3) Knowing Revenue per BOE/D
    4) Knowing Breakup value calculation
    5) Knowing the life of the company (AKA Proved reserved / BOE/D
    6) Knowing interest expense
    7)Calculating the Discount rate
    8) Knowing the cost per barrel
    9) Calculating the cost to convert proved undeveloped
    10) Calculating taxes.

  • Reply to

    PDCE

    by cbd0012003 Dec 13, 2014 11:54 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Dec 15, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    lol the funny thing is you shouldn't want production growth.

    If BCEI is smart they will slow down production so that they can sell their oil at a higher price.

    Their valuation is definitely lower if they do $300M of cap-ex this year as opposed to $50-60 M

  • Reply to

    Why is TEX even at $28/29 after that quarter

    by cbd0012003 Nov 2, 2014 11:54 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Dec 15, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    yea, I would need a cheap multiple for TEX which is a company which consistently over promises and under delivers.

    Simply put there is no reason to buy Terex at its current multiple when there are better companies with cheaper multiples.

  • Reply to

    Time to start nibbling

    by takealook2 Dec 4, 2014 3:27 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Dec 4, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    lol I'd almost buy a few thousand with no research on the move! But I am way too smart to do that.

    Definitely this has the potential to be a BONANZA!

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Dec 4, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    That is a good contrary argument. However you still didn't answer my original question.

    Why would such a genius be on the analyst side where it is unethical to buy or sell stock before their opinions come out?

    Certainly Warren Buffett's career ambitions weren't a stock analyst?

    Clearly the guys who invest are smarter.

    NOW

    There are idiots on both sides. There are stupid people who own the stock and stupid people who dont own the stock.

    At the END OF THE DAY! you have to do your own research. So if the analyst makes good opinions then its valid if he does not it isn't. That is the key.

    My point is analyst opinions are garbage. Good facts though are not.

    I do not hold BCEI but I am looking to buy an E&P stock shortly. I just haven't found one yet.

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