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jamessmarson3 72 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 18, 2015 11:03 PM Member since: Sep 29, 2010
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  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Mar 18, 2015 11:03 PM Flag

    yeah I don't get it either. If you valued Terex's indivudal pieces you would see how ludicrous their valuation is.

    Terex's construction business would clearly sell for at least $500M as evidenced by the fact they have been selling pieces off of it for already like $150M in the last couple of years.

    Their AWP business by iself would sell for around $3B which is more than the whole company.

    The MHPS business before it was bought sold for around $1B it is still a good business and I don't see how it sells for less than $1B by itself.

    The MP business has a similar company in Astec which has a 20 PE meaning Terex's MP business by itself sells for $1B

    Finally the crane business. The crane business. MTW's entire business sells for $3B and cranes was 41% of their business last year. Terex's crane segment makes similar operating profit to that meaning its crane segment is worth at least $1B.

    All and all that would be $6.5 B of value if all these companies were separate.

    Together they are trading for under a 10 forward PE. it doesn't make much sense.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Mar 9, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    CAT is extremely effected by its mining business and energy business. CAT's mining business has imploded

    "The recent dramatic decline in the price of oil is the most significant reason for the year-over-year decline in our sales and revenues outlook. Current oil prices are a significant headwind for Energy & Transportation and negative for our construction business in the oil producing regions of the world. In addition, with lower prices for copper, coal and iron ore, we’ve reduced our expectations for sales of mining equipment. We’ve also lowered our expectations for construction equipment sales in China."

    These 2 busineses Terex is not in. As I said before Terex isn't affected by oil. I know they mentioned oil price uncertainty in their Q4 release but it is fairly obvious oil prices have very little affect on their business.

    So MNTX is a 2nd rate company. CAT is having issues in businesses TEX doesn't have.

    CAT basically went all in on OIL and Mining

    YOU know??? I actually have been avoiding mining stocks for my whole investment life? And I avoided CAT and JOY investments for this reason. I think mining is a risky sector and I have never liked anything mining related.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Mar 8, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    we are all glad you enjoy playing 8% changes in the market. That makes you a very credible investor. Or should I call you what you are. A day trader.

    Now onto MNTX. They are a company that was consumed by growth. They made 2 bad purchases in order to get more sales. They bought Terex's ASV and PM Oil & Steel. They have been using debt and equity to finance the transaction. Both transactions its hard to figure are accretive to their earnings given the amount of debt and equity part of the companies.

    In the case of ASV the company is valued at 22 times earnings. MNTX says EBITDA is $14M less $2M estimated dep and $2.64 M in added debt at a tax rate of 32% so $6.3 M of earnings. The consideration was $138 M of the whole company. MNTX;s portion is $3.15 M and they paid $69 M consideration. So Terex is selling at 10 times earnings and their construction business is probably valued at 0 times earnings and it sold part of it for 22 times earnings.

    Now for their PM group purchase they get $106 M of sales and earnings of either -5 M . They bought a company with $200M of debt! or $140 and they said they assumed another $68.

    So yeah conditions will be challenging for a 2nd rate company making stupid decisions. MNTX a company with $264M of sales you're comparing to Terex with $7.3B??

    Do you know anything??

    I know a couple of dumbos here on the boards bought MNTX and I told them many times it wasn't any good.

  • Reply to

    Very surprised to see TEX' price up today

    by rayonman11 Feb 18, 2015 9:26 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 26, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    I think I answered your questions better

    1) Track record is not the same as skin in the game. It is much easier to say Apple is going to $200 and owning $0 of stock then to say it and own $100,000. One anyone can do the other takes guts

    2) A professional career exactly. They are motivated as a professional analyst not as someone who makes money on stock picks. If my stocks picks don't do well I don't do well. These guys are motivated for different reasons.

    3) You ignored the question here. If you're going to post an analysts opinion and you deny my first 2 points which are fair then you should always say this analyst has earned 25% a year since XXX date. Without that why do I care?

  • Reply to

    Very surprised to see TEX' price up today

    by rayonman11 Feb 18, 2015 9:26 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 25, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    And its fair to ask for his record. We respect Buffett because of his record. We have no interest in listening to hedge fund managers opinions who stink. There are tons of Hedge fund managers who stink. And I would think analysts are far worse.

  • Reply to

    Very surprised to see TEX' price up today

    by rayonman11 Feb 18, 2015 9:26 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 25, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    lol, I don't trust someones opinion who has no skin in the game.

    I could lose huge sums of money if I am wrong on Terex. if a guy from BMO is wrong on Terex oh well he can still fart away in his office.

    Second if he was good like me making 30% a year then why would he have a job that doesn't reward him for his ability to pick stocks.

    Third! If he wants to be considered credible despite the above 2. Then he would have some sort of portfolio showing his results per pick on all his ratings.

    Like so we have 3 things wrong in trusts the analysts
    1) No skin 2) Why is he working there? 3) What is his record?

    Why am I going to trust someone just because he works at BMO? To me he is just some random dude which I have no respect for. If they say something interesting then yeah Ill give it some thought. But I see no reason to listen to some random dude says Tex is worth $100 or $0.

    I would probably take your opinion with more weight than BMO's. Though I take your opinion with 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 weight

  • Reply to

    OT BIDU

    by rayonman11 Feb 23, 2015 1:52 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 24, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Keep doing it and you're going to be on ignore.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 23, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    However what also changed

    What changed from Dec 15 was the stock dropped to $22 and I re-read everything from scratch and noticed that Terex had improved on a lot of the things I didn't like. From this I realized intrinsic value is closer to $35 then $30.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 23, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    I listed reasons why it may have gone up 7%. I never states those were my opinions on why it moves up 7%.

  • Reply to

    OT BIDU

    by rayonman11 Feb 23, 2015 1:52 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 23, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    why are you posting this here? get this garbage out of here

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 22, 2015 10:56 PM Flag

    yeah lol nor do I think it was up because BLK bought it. Let's list the possible reasons

    1) It was down 7% the day before after being up 7% the day before that
    2) Analyst upgrades and downgrades
    3) The stock is just so damned undervalued

    So who really knows. AND WHO REALLY FREAKING CARES. It's about a stock hitting your valuation. Not some clown saying Terex correlates with the price of oil but has no reason why it is doing such.

    It really doesn't matter how a stock trades in the short term guys.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 20, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Who really cares? it's about long run and valuation. Buffett buying it or Black Rock means nothing.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by chumpbuttsmeller Feb 20, 2015 5:33 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 20, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    I think he is lowballing the AWP and Crane segment.

    It is a little absurd from all I have read to estimate a 10% decline in sales when OSK's is predicting 6% growth and when Terex has been essentially every quarter of better growth better margins than AWP.

    Also cranes he is like we should get the same margins as 2014 despite the fact that it vastly improved in 2014 by the end.

  • Reply to

    Very surprised to see TEX' price up today

    by rayonman11 Feb 18, 2015 9:26 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 20, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    yeah chump. I haven't gone through the call since my biggest investment is in DE and i have a lot of work to do on that. However i hope this weekend to thoroughly analyze my numbers.

    On my seeking Alpha article I predicted 3.25 a share and excluding amortization its a GAAP pick of $3.05. Currency headwinds of 20 cents I didn't estimate so now 2.85. The rest of the difference is how far I over-predicted AWP where I would have over-predicted about 50 cents of it.

    I really think as of now it will grow this year in terms of earnings. However I will go over it once again.

    I also find it mental as of now DeFeo is predicting the same margins for cranes as in 2014 when Q1 crane income was a loss putting a huge drag on margins if you use an annualized 2014 number.

    So these 2 things are where my estimate differs and as of right now my numbers seem more logical than Terex's. And as you know I have out smarted them before in terms of their numbers vs mine.

    But my numbers are subject to change after I read the CC.

    On the analyst I really don't remember any analyst saying to buy Terex at $10 when I did and other did. They don't know anything. They saw AWP margins go down and said AWP success is over.

    He has no freaking clue. Even if he is right I would give him no credit because broken clocks can be right.

  • Reply to

    Very surprised to see TEX' price up today

    by rayonman11 Feb 18, 2015 9:26 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 20, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    lol don't post that garbage here. If this guys knew anything they would invest. lol AWP earnings growth is now behind Terex. That is ridiculous. OSK has growth forecasted this year and they have basically the exact same business and TEX has a book to bill of 200% and solid background. The company also says margins will go back up. A little over-reaction from our analyst idiots

  • Reply to

    Well that sucked.

    by theparabolic Feb 17, 2015 5:23 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 18, 2015 11:09 PM Flag

    yeah sorry rayonman your opinion is valued and I was beind kind of dumb before with insulting you.

    I don't think oil is a big effect on Terex's business despite the fact they mentioned it in the PR. From what I see going through the numbers its pretty marginal.

  • Reply to

    Very surprised to see TEX' price up today

    by rayonman11 Feb 18, 2015 9:26 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 18, 2015 11:06 PM Flag

    I was surprised at first until i realized Terex's guidance is a joke. I don't think the $2.00 - $2.3 is very realistic given their businesses.

    I am still going through the notes but honestly they are predicting AWP down like 10% when OSK has theirs up 6% and Terex's book to bill is over 200% right now. It's literally insane for them to be predicting these kind of declines.

    "All right. So now there's a continuation of some of the -- we don't want to call them self-help because self-help assumes that we can completely deliver these absolutely the way they are, irrespective of market change. The reality is that market change impacts our outcomes. So what we've attempted to do is frame these on the basis of flat "

    I really think Terex has gotten caught with their pants down since 2013 where DeFeo predicted $10B of revenue in 2015 which is downright embarrassing right now. I think he is just simply going to the other end of the spectrum.

    HAVING Said that. I don't think you should have sold so hastily, though I don't know my exact answer yet since I am still reading everything and will have a more detailed answer yet.

    However even if we take Terex's $2 earnings at face value which is still $226M of profit with serious growth potential. I don't think you would find a much cheaper stock at $26.

    Though I agree I was a little taken aback but I think the increase had a bit to do with how undervalued it was before.

    NOW onto your oil comments. I know Terex mentioned in their press release. But they are predicting midpoint of $6.4B of sales. $650M of it is from european sales and ASV. MHPS they said at the end of Q3 will decline like $150M from one big order. So right now that accounts for $800M of the $900 M decline.

    So $100 M decline from oil is the only other variable. So you really think Terex was losing 50% of its value for $100 M of sales? Seems a little silly.

  • Reply to

    Well that sucked.

    by theparabolic Feb 17, 2015 5:23 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 18, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    I meant to say the dude was wrong and I don't know why Terex says they will be hurt by oil next year when they aren't really forecasting in a decline from it. Kind of a BS headline thing to say

  • Reply to

    Well that sucked.

    by theparabolic Feb 17, 2015 5:23 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 18, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    I will retract my comment. from the oil thing. It seems Terex is forecasting about $-100M decline from oil on the low-end of their guidance but assuming a midpoint they aren't forecasting any decline from oil.

    It seems from my own projections
    Terex is forecasting $80M lower AWP
    $15 higher interest (this one was hard to calculate since its based on what they said)
    $10M higher corporate overhead
    Obviously no amortization $40

    These changes go from my projection of $3.25 to the low end of $2

    So my estimate was really only off on AWP. Which is weird because OSK is forecasting growth in the segment. I heard DeFeo mention flat growth and I am surprised to see him now say negative. Especially now book to bill is off the charts of 200%.

  • Reply to

    Well that sucked.

    by theparabolic Feb 17, 2015 5:23 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Feb 18, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    yeah whats emberassing is that poster kept mentioning oil as a reason Terex is down and I laughed him off. However they mentioned it in the Earnings release and Presentation. If they don't answer the question of why oil affects a business which doesn't sell to oil in the CC then I would probably email or call them.

    Seems like a lame excuse to me but the currency headwinds is more legit.

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