lol clearly you know I am going to hate an unprofitable solar stock! I wouldn't ever buy solar until they don't have to be subsidized by the government.
Yeah I still own PNC but I have been trimming back my position over the last year as its gone up and other stocks have become cheaper. DE and AXS are my 2 big bets right now.
yeah CBD when I sold Terex early last year I didn't think it was cheap since it was at $30 and it clearly wasn't going to meet its guidance. It soon moved it down. Right now again its guidance won't be met and its suspect DeFeo's lofty earnings estimates are possible.
Having said that at $27 it is way more interesting but I am not a buyer just yet. Mostly because there are better deals still.n
Also ya COF is down today haven't gone through their quarter completely yet but it seemed acceptable. I am not worried but I will go through it in more detail this weekend.
Companies often get hit hard on earnings It's not really something to be concerned about.
I don't think it was excessive. First of all my favourite investments are banks!
Before their earnings today I projected RM was worth $20 a share. However after today it is significantly less and the risk continues to rise for a couple of reasons.
1) Their loan losses and delinquency stats had shown improvement from historically high levels shown late last year and early this year. THEY TOLD US that the reason was because their workers had more than 300 accounts per person AND NOW credit was controlled.
HOWEVER now credit hurts its worse patch ever. 2 SCENARIOS
1) This is just a blip but we have to build in higher average provisions in our model for loan losses over the cycle. Given these new realities their average provisions over their last 9 quarters is 2.366% of net loans.
I calculate this means their ROTE is around 10.7%. Tangible equity is 170 M so their discount rate given these losses is probably around 11% if not more so trading under tangible book value doesn't seem dumb. Right now it trades at a 13% discount to tangible book.
2!!!! The situtation can get worse with coninthing loan losses and deterioration. Making a higher average provisions and perhaps continued quarters of losses.
THE CEO just quit randomly. That is alarming. So I really don't see why I would buy more at this price. If anything I would recommend selling.
Nice to see the old gang back.
Yeah I agree with CBD. When I was loving Terex in the low 20's 2 years ago Terex was growing its earnings like crazy and 2008 wasn't far off.
The fact is 2013 they said they would make 2.7 they didn't
In 2014 they said they would make 2.7 they won't
In 2015 they will say what? According to DeFeo they should make $4 the fact they can't hit 2013 guidance in 2014 is concerning.
What made me hate TEX was the Demag purchase. The company could have basically made themselves debt free. Instead they are loaded with this company that I am not sure if the management of Demag and Terex are on the same page.
Granted Demag's results have been better of late but I really think Terex should have used the opportunity to paydown most of their debt and grow their current businesses.
The fact is today.
DeFeo has no control over Cranes
DeFeo has no control over MP last quarter margins got killed
DeFeo has no control over construction
DeFeo has some control over AWP but even last quarter we saw margins get killed.
And now DeFeo has no control over MHPS.
So right now only 1 businesses is really performing yet they felt they needed they needed to build a new house when their current one isn't in order.
MNTX just made an awful purchase. I would be extremely hesitant buying a company that makes such a stupid purchase.
lol people like you always brag on a gain. How many $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 losses do you make when you invest in something you know nothing about for a quick flip?
Gecco I am of the mindset that god created the world but doesn't often intervene and man and nature is free to do whatever. Therefore anything bad that happens in the world or good isn't attributable to god. You have to just live your life given the cards your dealt.
Chump do yourself a favor and switch from Agco to DE. I have tons of metrics showing how bad Agco is compared to DE
Essentially DE has better growth, produces far more excess cash and is a much more stable company. I really don't see anything that Agco does better than DE.
I am not typically an oil investor, I have never invested in oil before but the recent downturn is very interesting.
The bear case is pretty obvious: Don't invest in an E&P play with a lot of debt because if oil stays low for a while they will go bankrupt.
The bull case - It is a blip in oil prices and these companies will weather the storm.
The James Smarson case: Can I find a company that can survive the longest if the bull case is wrong, that has also gotten hit down substantially.
I've mentioned to CBD before Bonanza has not a lot of cash and a lot of debt. Therefore it is unlikely the best choice. When you're a riot you want to steal from the store you're least likely to get caught. at $800 M of debt you can get caught. And with more CL than CA.
yeah cbd, I plan to look at all shale companies this week and see which is the best one. I am not ruling out Bonanza but if the best one is Bonanza I likely would not be getting involved.
You can't really predict how long OPEC will go mental and phrases like profitable down to $65 and it's barely above $65. Not being FCF positive when they have 800 M of debt. And relative to other E&P which is irrelevant They can still go into bankruptcy even if they are relatively better.
Anyways I am not saying your conclusion is wrong I just hope Bonanza isn't the best E&P. Maybe it is when oil prices rise but I am looking for the best survival E&P in case I am wrong and oil prices stay depressed for a while.
What stock can you make the biggest return and take the least risk? Certainly the risk in Bonanza seems high to me. Hedged to mid 2015. We are almost in MID 2015!
If analysts knew anything they would invest.
If people thought they were smart then why wouldnt they have downgraded the stock before it dropped? I find it hilarious that stocks often move in the short term (1 day) after a report comes out.
These reports are very rarely clever and almost always add no info to the market.
That is a good contrary argument. However you still didn't answer my original question.
Why would such a genius be on the analyst side where it is unethical to buy or sell stock before their opinions come out?
Certainly Warren Buffett's career ambitions weren't a stock analyst?
Clearly the guys who invest are smarter.
There are idiots on both sides. There are stupid people who own the stock and stupid people who dont own the stock.
At the END OF THE DAY! you have to do your own research. So if the analyst makes good opinions then its valid if he does not it isn't. That is the key.
My point is analyst opinions are garbage. Good facts though are not.
I do not hold BCEI but I am looking to buy an E&P stock shortly. I just haven't found one yet.
lol I'd almost buy a few thousand with no research on the move! But I am way too smart to do that.
Definitely this has the potential to be a BONANZA!
yea, I would need a cheap multiple for TEX which is a company which consistently over promises and under delivers.
Simply put there is no reason to buy Terex at its current multiple when there are better companies with cheaper multiples.
lol the funny thing is you shouldn't want production growth.
If BCEI is smart they will slow down production so that they can sell their oil at a higher price.
Their valuation is definitely lower if they do $300M of cap-ex this year as opposed to $50-60 M
1) Knowing proved developed and proved undeveloped
2) Knowing bOE/D
3) Knowing Revenue per BOE/D
4) Knowing Breakup value calculation
5) Knowing the life of the company (AKA Proved reserved / BOE/D
6) Knowing interest expense
7)Calculating the Discount rate
8) Knowing the cost per barrel
9) Calculating the cost to convert proved undeveloped
10) Calculating taxes.