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Manitex International, Inc. Message Board

jamessmarson3 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 8, 2014 1:37 PM Member since: Sep 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    This is the one that moves the needle!!!!

    by qcrkirk Jul 21, 2014 10:30 AM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Aug 8, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    the acquisition looked horrible to me. Are they assuming $140M of PA debt. Might as well take a gun to your head and shoot yourself.

  • Reply to

    question to James

    by casper_g_chen Apr 2, 2014 2:16 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 4, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    All right, so I see your using a few financial metrics. I am thinking those are not the most appropriate metrics given SDRL's business which is buy capital and pretty much rent it out. The capital they have little control over, the price they have little control over.

    This company should be easy to value using a DCF. But before wasting time on that. You can see they made around $300M of normalized profit in Q1. Adding back interest expense would show they made around $400M X 4 run rate is 1.6 B on $22B of capital so a ROIC of around 7% which is below their discount rate.

    Anyways maybe I will do one going forward and sit down and really think about it. For these kind of companies i deem, Dividend, PEG and other common metrics as inappropriate. It should almost be valued like a mining stock.

  • Reply to

    question to James

    by casper_g_chen Apr 2, 2014 2:16 PM
    jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 Jun 2, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    I will try to take a look into it going forward but let me know what you liked about it.

    Anything that particularly drew you to this stock? I see the rig market isn't doing so well on the other hand this company seems to be selling off some assets and redistributing cash to stockholders.

    A couple of things on quick glance
    1) The valuation is acceptable and looks compelling on a quick superficial glance
    2) You wonder why they are going so hot and heavy on the dividend when they have large debt and their stock appears to be cheap. Obviously a buyback would make more sense.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 29, 2014 11:17 PM Flag

    ya I am investing in DE and AXS heavily right now. I also am researching Tesco and others. I also still have big positions in PNC, COF. But banks are no longer that undervalued. The casualty insurance is the new banking sector. The discount AXS is getting to tangible book makes no sense.

    I know people don't like casualty insurance but their prices are super good. you get to buy AXS under tangible book value when they have historically earned returns well above their discount rate. I think its at least 50% undervalued. These stocks are also highly leveraged for rising interest rates which will greatly increase their ROE's.

  • jamessmarson3 jamessmarson3 May 29, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    lol, that's their business you bozo. Lending to subprime people is fine as long as you plan to do it.

    If I give $10 to 10 criminals who promise to give me $20 in return as long as I know historically 6 do then I profit by $20.

    So yes lots of bad loans but also super high interest rates. Which together make the model work. What doesn't work is contracting same store sales

MNTX
11.89-0.06(-0.50%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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