what about Yellow I think I told everyone here that Gem. Unfortunately I also sold at $13 my average cost was like $7 now its at $20.
I have the confidence that I can determine a fraud or not as an outside investor. You just need to look for things. If they add up or not. I am leaning on GRE being a fraud but I will potentially ask their Investor relations or visit their office.
I agree it is a stock that will need a few extra steps. However in this up market where most stocks are overvalued, it is worth it to get a bit more creative.
Also I screwed up my gem I posted last year of Yellow Media now up like 200%. I think I made 50% on it but the position i had was like 3% of my portfolio.
I originally bought convertible bonds at 2 cents on the dollar but I sold them because the company forced me to pay the 3.5% interest. So I was paying upfront huge interest payments. And I was worried because the company said they wouldn't pay back the interest/.
It was dumb since my bank told me I wouldn't have to pay the interest because of the proposed cancel by Yellow. These huge interest charges made Yellow like 20% of my portfolio an amount I was not comfortable with so I had to sell all the bonds.
Anyways suffice it to say the bonds are up 8 to 9 times since then.
So these are the little creative gems that can make you a lot of money. I ended up making a little taste but obviously I was a moron. It is still always worth it to look into the GRE and the Yellows.
I think every company is potentially worth it though if you put in the time to research it. I think it is definitely worth making 6-7 times your money.
I agree I will probably not end up investing in it but I will do some solid research on it. I have already completed some preliminary analysis.
no problem. I looked into the auto market once and it just didn't seem attractive enough for me. So I have not entered it. Perhaps something has changed.
Our thoughts are pretty congruent. I just don't think Ford is the best bet in terms of reward to risk out there.
also congrats on your returns YTD. So your average purchase price was 34.5 in TEX?
Also a key in investing is isn't getting cocky. I have made that mistake before early on. Though I would admit I have been at my best this year.
It is hard to really measure who is the greatest investor by a single year. I believe Buffett is probably up like 4% this year. I have averaged 35% a year since 2008 so this year is on par. More speculative have really surged in 2013 and I made a couple of mistakes limiting my return.
Last year I made 100%
I made some screwups in 2013 which if I had not made I would be up like 60%. Yellow pages comes to mind which is up 300% but I didn't benefit nearly enough from it.
I lost faith in TEX delivering. It seems like your wishing and a hoping on $10. The dividend means next to nothing really. The facts is revenue has gone down year over year in every quarter. Ford also is being helped by a huge resurgence in auto demand that will probably soon taper off.
So it seems optimistic.
Anyways I will possibly update you guys on my ideas going forward.
I told you guys ford was poor. The TEX dividend and share repurchase is kind of small. I am sure they are not buying back $200M this year and the 5 cents whatever that is laughable.
It really doesn't tell you about the state of the company. However it does tell you management and shareholders have goal congruence! Though we already knew that all along. TEX has some of the most investor friendly management around.
Right now I was buying Deere, its done Okay up 6% since I bought in Sept. I am up 36% now on the year.
I am looking into TGH, TAL some container shipping stocks.
GRE (greenstar agriculture( on the Canadian venture is interesting but it may be a fraud. Trading a 2 times earnings lol with 40% growth and a dividend. Lucky for me I live next to their office so I will investigate it. So stay tuned.
I don't think AGCO is as good as DE. For a couple of reasons historically AGCO organic growth has been below DE. Even at the current time DE has grown earnings faster.
Also AGCO has reinvested 1.68 times its capex while Deere has done 1.2 X despite this huge influx of capital they have managed further growth.
On top of this, AGCO pays a 5% payout while Deere does 65-70%. So Deere is growing and spinning off excess cash. AKA Deere is far more attractive.
Obviously going forward I assume AGCO and DE will grow around their historical averages. If that is way off than that would change the analysis. But on almost all metrics DE is way better
Even in an off year i beat the market. Better than Buffett who has probably returned like 6 % on his stock picks this year
well I guess your glad then you're not beating the market by more than 2 times since i started my partnership.
lol this is just an off year for me and its mostly related to the ridiculous surge in the S&P of awful companies like Netflix. I can barely keep up. I don't expect stocks like Netflix to go up 400% next year so I should easily destroy the S&P going forward again
lol ya I mean we should all be happy. We all have overvalued positions because the market has gone up so much. And to find such an easy stock and such a great company trading at absurd prices is a wet dream
lol ya I said 30% sucks. Read u moron. I said I have done really poorly this year. I am barely beating the market
lol I am a godly investor. Though I will admit I have been pretty average in 2013. Up 30% and the market is up 28% (including dividends) Compared to last year I was up 42% compared to 16%. This is for the fund I manage.
I enjoyed reading the transcript. Management didn't shed a lot of good color on why the sales dropped there. I really hate acquisitions like that. They raised equity which is expensive to buy a company which had its sales decline 50%. That is quite concerning
don't email management chump. Every miss MNTX makes is your fault.
If you have a factual question to ask them, then email them. Like how did you calculate this but why be an annoyance to the company?
As mentioned you have to be careful with 100M companies.
A few concerning things
1) Earnings guidance hints at only 41 cents a share in Q4 2013 indicating as like last year that the company's results are lumpy and that its harder to tell if they have turned a corner.
2) MHPS is weird. They marked down a lot of inventory in Q1 and Q2 and that helps profitability in MHPS for future quarters. Have they been able to reduce MHPS's inventory costs overall?
3) Was it just a lucky quarter in MHPS. Since they perhaps pushed sales to this quarter
4) guidance wasnt really raised the tax rate changed.
Anyways even with the "good resuts" the company has yet to show it can grow revenue. Margins are improves yes,. But its hard to say 2015 is so realistic when they lose revenue every quarter.