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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

jananjim 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 25, 2015 11:36 AM Member since: Oct 28, 2004
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  • jananjim jananjim Feb 25, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    I don't know why the RS would be a surprise at this NAV. 5 bucks was the key level for marketing shares... I'm not invested here yet. The reason why I closed out my small position several years ago was concern with NAV erosion and sustainability of distribution. I never thought it was a good idea and posted as much to reinvest distributions into additional shares of GABUX, Never made sense to me because I don't like to reinvest in a declining NAV. This is not a risky investment in terms of Beta and investment approach.

  • jananjim jananjim Feb 25, 2015 7:38 AM Flag

    NAV should stabilize then start to grow slowly. Long term GABUX total return has been over 8% distribution will now be either less than that or very close. Not sure exactly what "best" event to buy but I will start a position later in March or early April and will top it off during any market correction. I think NAV will be eroded due to selling, but I don't think a massive selloff will occur. The fact is that the sustainability of the distribution has been resolved, NAV level will be more marketable at least according to Gabelli. I do believe that many new investors will offset those that leave and some old investors will double down to maintain distribution flow as well.

  • jananjim jananjim Feb 24, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    lots of yield hunters will flee. Probably gonna impact NAV alot less than you think. (Cash on hand) After the initial reduced distribution is the time to buy, or wait for any general market turndown. GABUX is a good pick for a retiree looking to spend down with having to sell investments. Not so good if you are young looking to grow a portfolio. The RS/distribution reduction should not have been a big surprise to anyone. Feel sorry for ya if it was. I wouldn't sell if I were retired and holding it. Bottomline: After the dust settles, GABUX will be in a great position to continue to pay the distribution for many years to come.

  • Reply to

    Ukraine holdings.

    by jridley17 Jan 21, 2015 9:41 AM
    jananjim jananjim Feb 4, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    This is one bet that has gone bad. Was wondering why we haven't gotten a bounce from short EU position. Added some more, I think mgt will make up for poor performance.

  • Reply to

    Why oil will bottom around $20.00

    by marcopubio Jan 7, 2015 12:03 AM
    jananjim jananjim Jan 7, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Oil going to 20 is not likely. Sure some countries are gonna over produce. The problem though is that other countries like Venezuela will likely see production plummet as they do not adequately maintain their energy infrastructure. The US will not be adding over 1 million barrels of production in 2015 like they did each of the last several years. The oil glut will disappear as US oil production declines and demand continues to grow. 2015 will likely see depressed oil for much of the year as increased demand will slowly erode the surplus oil in the market.

  • Reply to

    Esoteric Perspective

    by jrayle2003 Dec 14, 2014 2:45 PM
    jananjim jananjim Jan 6, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    What do you think the yield is? Obviously the yield is actually higher than indicated on yahoo. I'm not looking for 9 or 10 any time soon. But NAV recovery over the year is likely, to what level we will see.

  • Reply to

    Esoteric Perspective

    by jrayle2003 Dec 14, 2014 2:45 PM
    jananjim jananjim Jan 6, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Pumping...give me a break. Have you calculated the yield on this fund? Did you use the monthly interest/dividend payment only or did you add the year end distribution of interest to the total? GIM is a bet on mangement, over the life of the fund, holders have done pretty well with that bet.

  • Reply to

    Making a mountain out of a molehill

    by rllayton Dec 9, 2014 6:39 PM
    jananjim jananjim Dec 12, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    No thumbs down, but I disagree. The #$%$ storm created is much worse than no dividend increase/reduced dividend outlook. The uncertainty factor, bad accounting/oversight/internal controls whatever you want to call it is not good. If financials aren't available on the day they announced, this will tank again.

  • Kuwait says 65 dollar oil is likely for 6 months or so. Perhaps that is how long it will take the rest of OPEC to stop overproducing. IMO Saudi won't cut production until the OPEC over producers cut production. Getting OPEC to act in unison is just as important for Saudi as disrupting CAPEX/future production from non opec countries. This is needed to allow time for global oil demand to catch up to global oil production. In the mean time, I try to figure out just how many shares of LNCO I should buy.

    From a news article.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November, exceeding its target of 30 million for a sixth consecutive month, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. oil production accelerated to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. That's the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983.

  • Reply to

    December dividend 2014

    by jjnov711 Nov 18, 2014 7:28 PM
    jananjim jananjim Dec 6, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    pure luck. Interesting that last month distribution was all earned dividends, no ROC.

  • Reply to

    December dividend 2014

    by jjnov711 Nov 18, 2014 7:28 PM
    jananjim jananjim Dec 2, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    just announced about half a cent capital gain distribution and normal 9 cent income.

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