generally agree. I think the decline in production of non opec producers will snowball from here. Crude storage decline have put the bottom in the oil price IMO. Iran production coming online will soften prices for a bit but likely won't retest lows. Iran production will offset decline in non opec production as well as much of the growth in demand.
The report of Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the years ended March 31, 2014 and 2013 did not contain an adverse opinion or a disclaimer of opinion, and were not qualified or modified as to uncertainty, audit scope or accounting principles. Except as described below, that report has not been withdrawn or modified.
The issue is in 2013.
I think we can conclude that mgt really does not have the intention to do the 9m share repurchase. Not buying back a significant amount of shares in conjunction with the RS was a mistake. The BV discount just shows the lack of confidence in mgt. Do you really think the BV will not decline this month? Yes, they will probably time a liquidity event at the least opportune time for current investors...another reason for the BV discount. If mgt does a significant buyback then that temporarily will right the ship, support BV, increase dividend coverage, and more importantly give a much needed boost to investor confidence in mgt.
do yourself a favor and don't buy either one of them. both are essentially just going to give your money back over your holding period (if you are lucky). I have small positions in both and am sorry at this point. I won't sell them, I am caught in investor purgatory. You just have to look at a chart and compare the total returns of both and you will see what I mean.
this is all out war with the stock price. We will have an answer on Monday at the latest. Bulls win if financials are filed and no major restatement. Shorts win if either not filed or Major restatement. Lawsuit against shorts is bullish IMO. If you believe mgt, today is the day to buy. If you are not sure, don't sell take some time and review last Investor Relations Presentation and last qtrs results. If you don't see the potential in the stock then sell it and move on otherwise buy more today. Monday will be too late,.
Lawsuit big positive. Low float manipulation just like a penny stock. Stock price gonna reflect the future Zacks just raised their outlook for the stock. Balance sheet not the greatest, but revenue is growing solidly. When company files financials this could literally double from these levels. Shorts have ruled, but odds now are stacking up against them.
That's probably why zacks just raised their target price...
Short term mentality. I'm wondering whether or not any M&A rumors are starting to float around. Read the last transcripts from earnings cc and mgt is clear that consolidation is going to happen in the biz. Whether buyer or seller both are not ruled out. Not sure if any additional plant expansion is possible if so, that would be the next thing I'd expect to hear about, absent a deal. The last plant expansion has saved the distribution for unit holders. I continue to believe that a low ball quarterly distribution and an annual special distribution is better than a variable quarterly distribution. Small investors want consistency. The lack of consistency contributes to the lack of unit price strength.
1) Company likely will repurchase some shares, imo much less than what they should(full 9 million authorized). Remember they had authorization for much of last year and barely moved the needle. That said anything more than half a million shares will be pretty bullish. 2) The more shares they buyback the cheaper the dividend is to the company, increasing the comfort level of investors most don't have confidence in sustainability of current dividend. That in itself will increase share price.
the best news from the report is that they covered the distribution. Do you not understand the significance of that?
book value still going down though. They are nibbling at shares, hopefully ARR mgt goes full in with share buyback authorization. I do think waiting until after split will give them biggest bang for buck, even with todays move, share price post split will be pressured. Things continue to improve. ARR bears have been right for years, the tide continues to slowly turn in favor of bulls.
covered distribution in qtr, big news as some thought this was not gonna happen. Also, mentioned share buyback authorization which they boosted share total compared to earlier authorization. Now, if they actually buy shares in 5-7 million shares after the split will solidify ARR prospects by putting to rest fears of dividend coverage and book value erosion. tempted to buy but will wait post split.
management. history of dividend cuts. RS coming up. rising interest rates. mostly lack of trust in mgt would be my guess. That said. Presently with RS coming up I think if you are ST your'e gonna get toasted whether you sell pre or immediately post RS. So why bother. I'm in the hole and will just wait out the next 6 months or so because many are gonna be hating this all the way thru tax season selling. Pretty much regardless of whether or not the underlying story is getting better. Meanwhile unless mgt does more (buybacks) to defend price its got nowhere to go but down ST. If establishing a position I'd gamble that mgt is not going to surprise with any bullish actions and wait to buy post split. Lots of people are gonna bail and take their lumps post split when they look at their share count and think why bother.... ARR is not going bust. Priced for failure now. If mgt contains NAV erosion then share price has the potential for a nice rebound.
looks like management is on summer vacation pre split. Can't blame those that are selling pre split. I'm not. Stopped reinvesting dividends this week and will just let it ride.
good points. They are doing something this year but it is for a known reason. My point is that in their IR presentation they mention paying 100% of available distributable income each qtr. IMO they should tweak their message to say - 100% will be distributed over the course of year. - cash distributions in the range of xx to yy each quarter, unit buybacks as determined by management, special dividend at end of year to distribute any remaining.... I'd be happy with a slightly lower quarterly distribution, a few undervalued units being repurchased, and an end of year special dividend. In the meantime, not complaining I was just laying out one of the reasons (variable distributions) that keep some small investors away.
UAN is not a large position for me. I will add when I have more funds so maybe I'll be able to pick up some of the cheap shares this fall. Used to swing trade, not anymore. UAN is part of my high yield portion of my portfolio. What attracted me to UAN was the fact that Value Line has a very favorable 3 to 5 year outlook for the share price. So I will take the high yield and hold for at least the next few years, hopefully the total return will be at a 20+ percent clip over that timeframe.
For long term investors, potential downside is NIL. Maybe a better buying opportunity might come up in the short or intermediate term, but I would use it to top off a position. Nothing good is priced into UAN right now. What do you think will happen if additional plant expansion is announced? or a merger or acquisition? A big risk for UAN is the risk inherent in operating a single plant. A merger or acquisition would do wonders to remove that risk.