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Starbucks Corporation Message Board

jananjim 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 7, 2015 1:30 PM Member since: Oct 28, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Why oil will bottom around $20.00

    by marcopubio Jan 7, 2015 12:03 AM
    jananjim jananjim Jan 7, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Oil going to 20 is not likely. Sure some countries are gonna over produce. The problem though is that other countries like Venezuela will likely see production plummet as they do not adequately maintain their energy infrastructure. The US will not be adding over 1 million barrels of production in 2015 like they did each of the last several years. The oil glut will disappear as US oil production declines and demand continues to grow. 2015 will likely see depressed oil for much of the year as increased demand will slowly erode the surplus oil in the market.

  • Reply to

    Esoteric Perspective

    by jrayle2003 Dec 14, 2014 2:45 PM
    jananjim jananjim Jan 6, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    What do you think the yield is? Obviously the yield is actually higher than indicated on yahoo. I'm not looking for 9 or 10 any time soon. But NAV recovery over the year is likely, to what level we will see.

  • Reply to

    Esoteric Perspective

    by jrayle2003 Dec 14, 2014 2:45 PM
    jananjim jananjim Jan 6, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Pumping...give me a break. Have you calculated the yield on this fund? Did you use the monthly interest/dividend payment only or did you add the year end distribution of interest to the total? GIM is a bet on mangement, over the life of the fund, holders have done pretty well with that bet.

  • Reply to

    Making a mountain out of a molehill

    by rllayton Dec 9, 2014 6:39 PM
    jananjim jananjim Dec 12, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    No thumbs down, but I disagree. The #$%$ storm created is much worse than no dividend increase/reduced dividend outlook. The uncertainty factor, bad accounting/oversight/internal controls whatever you want to call it is not good. If financials aren't available on the day they announced, this will tank again.

  • Kuwait says 65 dollar oil is likely for 6 months or so. Perhaps that is how long it will take the rest of OPEC to stop overproducing. IMO Saudi won't cut production until the OPEC over producers cut production. Getting OPEC to act in unison is just as important for Saudi as disrupting CAPEX/future production from non opec countries. This is needed to allow time for global oil demand to catch up to global oil production. In the mean time, I try to figure out just how many shares of LNCO I should buy.

    From a news article.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November, exceeding its target of 30 million for a sixth consecutive month, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. oil production accelerated to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. That's the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983.

  • Reply to

    December dividend 2014

    by jjnov711 Nov 18, 2014 7:28 PM
    jananjim jananjim Dec 6, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    pure luck. Interesting that last month distribution was all earned dividends, no ROC.

  • Reply to

    December dividend 2014

    by jjnov711 Nov 18, 2014 7:28 PM
    jananjim jananjim Dec 2, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    just announced about half a cent capital gain distribution and normal 9 cent income.

  • Reply to

    selling overdone

    by stockpickinmoron Nov 28, 2014 12:37 PM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 28, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    buying back shares reduces future cash requirements for dividends. It would lead to a more stable dividend. Doing it now would probably result in a rally as the known is better than the unknown. Right now some think they're gonna cut 50%. The company ought to retire some of these cheap shares which will reward shareholders down the road. Otherwise share price will lag because people will question an unsustainable (maybe just in their mind) dividend policy.

  • Reply to

    selling overdone

    by stockpickinmoron Nov 28, 2014 12:37 PM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 28, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    I don't see that happening. I'd prefer they reallocate return to shareholders into share buybacks and reduce the dividend as needed. What is going on has little to do with winter slowdown in demand. The world economies pretty much suc. Demand growth is down. The good news if any is that no one thinks this will last much into 2016. First half of 2015 could get uglier. Next OPEC meeting not for 6 months. If OPEC production not down to 30 million bpd by then, a cut( of their production celing) at that time will be very unlikely.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OPEC zombies

    by winmore_98 Nov 28, 2014 11:25 AM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 28, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    not all of OPEC is happy about this. Saudi can't kill shale, but they can disrupt it.

  • Reply to

    why isn't company

    by roadtoad255 Nov 28, 2014 10:30 AM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 28, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    hopefully they are buying some shares. I think they had to wait to announce until after OPEC. My hope is that they have been busy hedging more production. Dividend announcement is due now anyway, so perhaps guidance going forward will be provided as well. I'm just gonna reinvest dividend and maybe add if this bottoms.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Kudos Again LINE

    by barryobamaisafailure Nov 27, 2014 11:59 AM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 28, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    couldn't agree more. demand will rise no doubt. just as important capex spending is declining across the industry and new projects/production are being put on hold. OPEC will be forced to cut production back to their mandate quota of 30 million barrels per day if they want any production cuts out of Saudi. . Perhaps this will happen prior to their next scheduled meeting 6 months from now. IMO roller coaster ride for oil for next several years, unless demand strengthens significantly. Amazing timing of deals in retrospect by LINE/LNCO.

  • Reply to

    December dividend 2014

    by jjnov711 Nov 18, 2014 7:28 PM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 19, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    I suspect that if they do it will be much smaller. They went to a managed payout of 9 cents a month vs paying an earned dividend. Last month pay out included return of capital. Suspect they will likely bump the monthly payout again next year.

  • Reply to

    Sears Stores

    by purpletrader44 Nov 12, 2014 3:14 PM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 12, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    Sears is not likely selling all locations. They already have a subsidiary real estate managment firm that is managing many of the old sears location redevelopment. That firm will likely have an IPO.

  • Reply to

    value play here

    by valueseeker2011 Nov 3, 2014 3:55 PM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 3, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    buying under bv is a buy, so yes last 4 days people have been right to say "ARCP is a buy at these levels".

  • Reply to

    This is so way over blow

    by azfinanceguy Nov 3, 2014 2:04 PM
    jananjim jananjim Nov 3, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    indeed. but the bottom line remains the same. Immaterial error/fraud. Management reaction to Cole termination is troublesome to me. Whining almost. The problem with ARCP is that it didn't have much "goodwill" with shareholders. The frenzied acquisitions, underwater share offering,cozy cole deal, and lobster mania left many shareholders on the edge. All it took was someone to yell "fire" to empty the theater.

  • jananjim jananjim Nov 3, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Funny, last week undoing the Cole Deal was a must. Now that it is undone, its now horrible news.... Now they can sell it out right and cut ties 100%.

  • jananjim jananjim Oct 31, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    also tells me that the potential damage payable to shareholders per share will be small. I think lawyers will argue that the price paid was too high considering the real FFO/AFFO numbers. So, the damage will be the difference between what was paid for share and what the revised share valuation would have been based on the correct numbers. On the company side, the share price was selling at a discount to peers anyway so the argument will be weak at best.

  • jananjim jananjim Oct 31, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    also aren't they fishing for shareholders who had 100k in losses? Seems to me that the number of plaintiffs will be limited.

  • Reply to

    Sarbanes-Oxley Act They will go to Jail

    by whisteblower Oct 31, 2014 3:23 PM
    jananjim jananjim Oct 31, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    not even close. Enron execs lied to the BOD and hid billions of dollars of debt. We're talking about a 3 cent a share or 29 million dollar fraudulent number.

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