book value still going down though. They are nibbling at shares, hopefully ARR mgt goes full in with share buyback authorization. I do think waiting until after split will give them biggest bang for buck, even with todays move, share price post split will be pressured. Things continue to improve. ARR bears have been right for years, the tide continues to slowly turn in favor of bulls.
covered distribution in qtr, big news as some thought this was not gonna happen. Also, mentioned share buyback authorization which they boosted share total compared to earlier authorization. Now, if they actually buy shares in 5-7 million shares after the split will solidify ARR prospects by putting to rest fears of dividend coverage and book value erosion. tempted to buy but will wait post split.
management. history of dividend cuts. RS coming up. rising interest rates. mostly lack of trust in mgt would be my guess. That said. Presently with RS coming up I think if you are ST your'e gonna get toasted whether you sell pre or immediately post RS. So why bother. I'm in the hole and will just wait out the next 6 months or so because many are gonna be hating this all the way thru tax season selling. Pretty much regardless of whether or not the underlying story is getting better. Meanwhile unless mgt does more (buybacks) to defend price its got nowhere to go but down ST. If establishing a position I'd gamble that mgt is not going to surprise with any bullish actions and wait to buy post split. Lots of people are gonna bail and take their lumps post split when they look at their share count and think why bother.... ARR is not going bust. Priced for failure now. If mgt contains NAV erosion then share price has the potential for a nice rebound.
looks like management is on summer vacation pre split. Can't blame those that are selling pre split. I'm not. Stopped reinvesting dividends this week and will just let it ride.
good points. They are doing something this year but it is for a known reason. My point is that in their IR presentation they mention paying 100% of available distributable income each qtr. IMO they should tweak their message to say - 100% will be distributed over the course of year. - cash distributions in the range of xx to yy each quarter, unit buybacks as determined by management, special dividend at end of year to distribute any remaining.... I'd be happy with a slightly lower quarterly distribution, a few undervalued units being repurchased, and an end of year special dividend. In the meantime, not complaining I was just laying out one of the reasons (variable distributions) that keep some small investors away.
UAN is not a large position for me. I will add when I have more funds so maybe I'll be able to pick up some of the cheap shares this fall. Used to swing trade, not anymore. UAN is part of my high yield portion of my portfolio. What attracted me to UAN was the fact that Value Line has a very favorable 3 to 5 year outlook for the share price. So I will take the high yield and hold for at least the next few years, hopefully the total return will be at a 20+ percent clip over that timeframe.
For long term investors, potential downside is NIL. Maybe a better buying opportunity might come up in the short or intermediate term, but I would use it to top off a position. Nothing good is priced into UAN right now. What do you think will happen if additional plant expansion is announced? or a merger or acquisition? A big risk for UAN is the risk inherent in operating a single plant. A merger or acquisition would do wonders to remove that risk.
Lakehartwell, we've had one place or another on the lake for the last 10 years or so. When we lived in Atlanta it was a great place to escape to.
I think AFLAC is solid and it is on my watchlist. I exited awhile back just waiting for signs of growth outside of Japan.
not sure that any of this will impact UAN as management said that most of 2nd quarter production was already under contract in 1st quarter.
I'd like to see UAN do more to maintain the distribution on an even keel through out the year. Small investors (like me) get nervous when the they see a history of distributions that vary from qtr to qtr. I think mgt could keep a running qtrly at say 35 cents then pay an annual special distribution of accumulated excess if any as well as buying back units on the cheap. Just my 2 cents. BTW, I now understand the variable nature of the distribution, just saying that alone is what keeps many away from UAN. I'm accumulating a position. I think their plant expansion is paying off. Wonder how much more room to grow they have to expand further?
IMO now is not the time to sell. If you are on the fence, I'd wait until the next monthly update before making your decision. Personally, I'm not selling. But, the next update will tell whether or not company has continued to pick up the pace of share repurchases as well as continued portfolio moves. It is true that the repurchases have been lame, but it is also true that they are picking up. For me, it doesn't make sense to realize a loss when I believe the prospects for ARR have gotten better. I would say that mgt has been making good moves as of late (the RS is not on the top of the list) but they are setting up ARR for better performance in a rising rate environment so for me that constitutes a hold for now.
at the end of the day, HCR will pay the fine and they will continue to pay the rent. HCP has taken steps to diversify away from HCR. They already bit the bullet on rent concession and received what they thought was a fair tradeoff in lengthened agreements and property. Gov't not gonna put HCR out of business. Additional concessions are possible, but who is to say they won't favor HCP over the longer term? I'm not worried about HCR ability to pay the rent, this is a 5 billion dollar company and the number of patients in the lawsuit is about 1000.
Highly recommend you read the letter on their website in regards to the government investigation...From the letter... "We would like to highlight a number of other important facts. First, our Medicare billings are submitted to and approved for payment by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) own third-party fiscal intermediaries; these intermediaries found the services they reviewed and approved for payment to be medically necessary and in compliance with billing guidelines"....bottomline good time to be adding more HCP.
Contrary to all the message board experts, the RS is being well received. Why? perhaps its the small dividend increase...I'll admit, if they had cut the dividend this would have sunk hard. But that is not the case. Going forward, ARR is positioned to do better in a rising rate environment. They still have a share repurchase authorized. And have displayed some confidence in raising the dividend. After years of only cutting the dividend this is pretty big in my opinion. Not exactly investment grade, but I think we saw the bottom and if you can live with a 15% plus dividend then this might be a good time to buy more.
an increase is an increase especially when most were expecting a cut. They still have a share repurchase authorized. Stock has already been pecked away at. This looks like mgts first attempt to do anything on behalf of shareholders. Wish they would have just repurchased shares. Timing of this was no accident. After Fed, no interest rate hike for now. ST if mgt doesn't start defending price with share repurchase then yes it will fall some more but no free fall from here.
RS is no surprise. Dividend increase is. Should balance out. ARR is ready for rising interest rates. No sense in selling. Next thing might just be a robust stock repurchase as weak hands sell.