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Cirrus Logic Inc. Message Board

jane_tate 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 25, 2016 11:00 AM Member since: Aug 31, 2012
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  • According to checks, Macau gross gaming revenue (“GGR”) run-rate trends are tracking at approximately -15% YoY, below our original -10% to 12% estimate. Our April estimate goes to -16% from -10% to -12% as we anticipate continued slowness in the days ahead of the Labor Day Holiday, May 1.

    April to date and comparisons: According to checks, last week’s average daily table win was approximately MOP458m versus ~MOP517 the week previous (-11%) and ~MOP534 in the first 12 days of the month.
    April trends remain below the longer-term historical Macau MoM average, though close to in-line with the 3-year average.
    Notables. While operators seem to be optimistic about the upcoming holiday (fueled by solid CY16 Chinese New Year results), the President of the Macau Hoteliers & Innkeepers Association states that only 30 percent of the available rooms have been booked by Mainland tourists, down 30% to 40% from last year.
    Stock view remains the same. We expect VIP choppiness to remain and look to add to mass-oriented Macau stocks on dips given recent run-ups on already forecasted “less bad” data trends and more or less avoid VIP laden ones where stock valuation may be full (see, March 11 report: Wynn, Downgrade to Neutral; Given leverage to VIP, not the Macau environment or name to stretch valuation).

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Wynn shares unavailable for shorting??????

    by dthe98 Apr 22, 2016 1:22 PM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 22, 2016 3:27 PM Flag

    which broker do you use?

  • Reply to

    just got back in.

    by chinaman.nyc2003 Apr 12, 2016 10:10 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 21, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    Good job

  • Reply to

    MPEL buyout rumours..

    by matrixtrade123 Apr 20, 2016 7:17 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 21, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    Doubt it. Ggr still hasn't stabilized and is still going down imho. Coupled with increased supply I don't think this goes above $20 this year. Good luck

  • Reply to

    OT: SUNE just Filed BKR

    by bancroller1 Apr 21, 2016 9:39 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 21, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    I never once even commented on sune. And another thing, the hallmark of a rational person is the ability to adapt and change one's mind. As the fortunes in Macau have changed so has my opinion of this stock. And the only living in anyone's basement in you squeeze. Enjoy Mpel.

  • Reply to

    MPEL buyout rumours..

    by matrixtrade123 Apr 20, 2016 7:17 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 20, 2016 11:28 PM Flag

    LIMITED(NASDAQ: MPEL)

    RATING: BUY
    Price: $16.60
    Price Target: $20.00
    Analysts:David Bain (949) 721-6651
    1Q16 Preview; Construction disruption at MSC continues; Lowering estimates & price target but remain Buy rated
    Our Call
    Construction disruption adjacent to MPEL’s new Macau Studio City (“MSC”) continues, elongating MSC’s initial ramp up progression, in our view. Our overall 1Q16 property EBITDA goes to $259.7m from $267.7m, mostly due to lowered MSC assumptions and channel checked lower than theoretical hold at its Altira property, partially offset by higher COD assumptions. After full-year adjustments, MPEL’s valuation remains undemanding and it has company specific upcoming catalysts to match an overall NT Macau GGR “less bad” cadence and a longer-term ramp at MSC.

    While we continue to believe MSC is the best located casino resort in Macau longer-term, ongoing construction on both sides of the property combined with a relatively flattish (+2% QoQ) sequential revenue environment likely stalls a significant near-term property ramp.
    Even after adjusting for this, MPEL trades for 12.8x/12.3x CY16/CY17 EV/EBITDA, undemanding relative to its US-listed peer group.
    Upcoming catalysts include: 1) its new retail opening at COD in under 3 months (from eye-sore to patron draw); 2) its Tower 5 opening in CY18, which represents a fully new dedicated premium mass facility, in our view; 3) the MSC adjacent light rail stop opening; 4) a continuation of “less bad” Macau GGR with positive YoY inflection by August of this year; and 5) an accelerated EBITDA ramp at MSC, especially post construction of both its neighboring Parisian Casino Resort and Light Rail stop at the adjacent Lotus Entry.
    Our 1Q16 property adjustments are as follows: City of Dreams EBITDA to $200.5m from $187.2m; Altira to $6.2m from $10.5m; MSC to $22.6m from $40.2m; Manila remains at $24.1m and Mocha to $6.3m from $5.7m. Our CY16/CY17 EBITDA goes to $942.5m/$1.00b from $1.01b/$1.10b. Full-year adjustments are mostly reflective of lowered MSC assumptions.
    Of note, we include a picture of some of the construction near MSC on the following page (taken last night by a Macau contact).
    Our price target goes to $20 from $22.50 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.

  • Reply to

    MPEL buyout rumours..

    by matrixtrade123 Apr 20, 2016 7:17 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 20, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    Hahahaha excellent !

  • Reply to

    just got back in.

    by chinaman.nyc2003 Apr 12, 2016 10:10 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 20, 2016 12:59 AM Flag

    But China man sold?

  • Reply to

    MPEL coverage today...

    by lawstuff22 Apr 18, 2016 8:28 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 18, 2016 9:17 PM Flag

    Sterne Agee also reduced the price target from $22 to $20 today

    Sentiment: Sell

  • jane_tate@ymail.com by jane_tate Apr 18, 2016 9:16 PM Flag

    Construction disruption adjacent to MPEL’s new Macau Studio City (“MSC”) continues, elongating MSC’s initial ramp up progression, in our view. Our overall 1Q16 property EBITDA goes to $259.7m from $267.7m, mostly due to lowered MSC assumptions and channel checked lower than theoretical hold at its Altira property, partially offset by higher COD assumptions. After full-year adjustments, MPEL’s valuation remains undemanding and it has company specific upcoming catalysts to match an overall NT Macau GGR “less bad” cadence and a longer-term ramp at MSC.

    While we continue to believe MSC is the best located casino resort in Macau longer-term, ongoing construction on both sides of the property combined with a relatively flattish (+2% QoQ) sequential revenue environment likely stalls a significant near-term property ramp.
    Even after adjusting for this, MPEL trades for 12.8x/12.3x CY16/CY17 EV/EBITDA, undemanding relative to its US-listed peer group.
    Upcoming catalysts include: 1) its new retail opening at COD in under 3 months (from eye-sore to patron draw); 2) its Tower 5 opening in CY18, which represents a fully new dedicated premium mass facility, in our view; 3) the MSC adjacent light rail stop opening; 4) a continuation of “less bad” Macau GGR with positive YoY inflection by August of this year; and 5) an accelerated EBITDA ramp at MSC, especially post construction of both its neighboring Parisian Casino Resort and Light Rail stop at the adjacent Lotus Entry.
    Our 1Q16 property adjustments are as follows: City of Dreams EBITDA to $200.5m from $187.2m; Altira to $6.2m from $10.5m; MSC to $22.6m from $40.2m; Manila remains at $24.1m and Mocha to $6.3m from $5.7m. Our CY16/CY17 EBITDA goes to $942.5m/$1.00b from $1.01b/$1.10b. Full-year adjustments are mostly reflective of lowered MSC assumptions.
    Of note, we include a picture of some of the construction near MSC on the following page (taken last night by a Macau contact).
    Our price target goes to $20 from $22.50 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Adro please have a little self respect

    by chinaman.nyc2003 Apr 12, 2016 3:02 PM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 13, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    When are you looking to get out?

  • Reply to

    Adro please have a little self respect

    by chinaman.nyc2003 Apr 12, 2016 3:02 PM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 12, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    So why did you buy adro when you think the upcoming phase 2b results will be bad. Shouldn't you wait until after they are out?

  • Reply to

    Adro please have a little self respect

    by chinaman.nyc2003 Apr 12, 2016 3:02 PM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 12, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    China why do you "claim" to buy the stock only to bash it ten minutes later? Not cool

  • Reply to

    Closing my short

    by jane_tate Apr 9, 2016 11:12 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 11, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    You got me. I'm lying. Aduro is still green. Nice.

  • jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 11, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    chump? Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. The only chump here is you squeeze.

  • According to checks, Macau gross gaming revenue (“GGR”) run-rate trends are tracking at approximately -10% YoY, exactly in-line with our estimate which was formulated using the 3-year MoM +/- % average. While April trends are below the longer-term historical Macau MoM average, April consensus calling for a mid-teens decline seem conservative. As such, we see believe investors will view April trends as at least on-track.



    April to date and comparisons: According to checks, April to date-daily table average of MOP534m compares to the CY15 April 1 - 12 daily average of MOP560m (-5%). This is encouraging, as the following two weeks in April of CY15 was +13%.

    While GGR could decline significantly in the days ahead of the Labor Day Holiday May 1, April CY16 ends toward a weekend, potentially fortuitous timing running into the Labor Day holiday.

    April forecast details. We continue to forecast April GGR at MOP16.8b (USD$2.1b), -10% YoY. Historically, April has trended -5% from March. However, the last 3 years it has averaged -11% MoM. Our -10% YoY estimate calls for a -9% result from March. %. Our full April run-rate GGR assumption and forecast of -10% includes our slot forecast.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Closing my short

    by jane_tate Apr 9, 2016 11:12 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 11, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    It's true China. Looks it's green.

  • jane_tate@ymail.com by jane_tate Apr 9, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    My broker ran into his contact at the company last weekend. She's a doctor working for Aduro. She said buy all you can. Damn

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Merger?

    by biotechnology007 Apr 8, 2016 11:07 AM
    jane_tate@ymail.com jane_tate Apr 9, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    What lawsuit?

  • Good writeup on seeking alpha. here is the summary

    Summary March 29, 2016

    MPEL still seems expensive, despite risk to the Macau market as a whole and the possibility that Studio City might struggle against newer properties in Cotai.

    MPEL's geographic and demographic exposure makes it a good proxy for Macau; being bearish on Macau makes MPEL an interesting short.

    March revenue numbers will be key relative to the long-awaited "stabilization" in the market.

    I still think there's 25%+ downside at MPEL in the mid-term.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

CRUS
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