My concern is that Roger has failed to adequately understand the market, yet again. He's still executing a 4-year-old plan, failing to reconcile the realities that have since occurred in the market (not unlike some of the more naive "investors" on this mb...)
Look at posts contrasting Risperdal Consta and Invega Sustenna - I think that answers my question - independently verified as no real advantage (risperidone).
The journal study is unlikely to hurt J&J sales, said Glenn Novarro, a New York-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in an interview. The company has already shifting sales to a newer antipsychotic injection, the once-a-month Invega Sustenna, he said.
Risperdal Consta “is yesterday’s drug,” Novarro said. “It’ll have zero impact on the stock,” he said of the study.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)’s antipsychotic medicine Risperdal Consta, its third-best-selling drug, fared no better than less expensive treatments at keeping schizophrenia patients out of the hospital, U.S. researchers said.
Patients on Risperdal Consta, a twice-monthly injection, ended up in the hospital 39 percent of the time during the three-year analysis, about the same as those who took other drugs as a daily pill, a study released yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine said. People on the J&J treatment also reported more headaches and muscle tremors among their side effects, scientists found.
Risperdal Consta generated $1.5 billion in sales last year for New Brunswick, New Jersey-based J&J. Today’s findings undercut what has been the injection’s main selling point: that patients are more likely to stay on the medicine because it’s taken less often, said Robert Rosenheck, the study’s lead author. Researchers saw no better adherence after the initial two-week dose, he said.
“This study gives no reason why the use of this treatment should be increased” over other drugs, said Rosenheck, a researcher with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, which funded the study. “It may be effective for individual patients, but as a matter of policy, this is an expensive treatment and there’s no reason to aggressively promote it.”
One thing I don't know if anyone knows: why did J&J stop development of monthly injection for Relday with ALKS back in 2009? ("[J&J is] switching injections from a dependency on risperdone to Invega Sustenna" cf. Pharmaceutical Lifecycle Management: Making the Most of Each and Every Brand
Worldwide sales of Risperdal Consta for ALKS) came in at $348 million in its first quarter.
In other words, based on management performance over the past year, my concern is Relday is another debacle where management will be found "surprised" at the "negativity" surrounding its use, will be "surprised" at difficulty in getting adequate population of children for phase trials, and will be "surprised" to see that, if it stumbles into approval, it's TRx ramp will be slow (like ZGNX). I have NO CONFIDENCE in Roger and team to do any better on this pipeline...
I have had a concern for a long time and may as well post it. I doubt Relday is going to be a block buster. I think it's another that, while different than other formulations, the "market" (i.e., prescribers) isn't really going to appreciate its differentiation materially. So comments that Relday is going to kick this pps to $10, am not buying it at all...
In this end, it's just another hack job by Roger to attempt to leverage someone else's invention (DURECT's in this case).
OK, that last part was admittedly a slam, but...
1. The major players in the antipsychotics market include AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and GlaxoSmithKline. Eli Lilly's Zyprexa has the largest market share of the market, at 26% ($4.70 billion), while AstraZeneca's Seroquel, at 2nd place ($4.45 billion) remains the most widely prescribed antipsychotic.
2. 29% of the antipsychotic market is for "long-term care" (the balance being retail + mail-order)
3. On top of 11/2013 J&J's $2.2B settlement for Risperdal (it's brand name for the generic risperidone (3rd largest settlement in pharma history) that it "improperly promoted the antipsychotic drug Risperdal to older adults, children and people with developmental disabilities"
4. The intramuscular preparation, marketed as Risperdal Consta, can be given once every two weeks. It is slowly released from the injection site. This method of administration may be used on sanctioned patients (detained), who are refusing, or consenting patients who may have disorganized thinking and cannot remember to take their daily doses - not exactly an industry segment that is going to warrant high costs (IMO)
5. 232 variants of risperidone available globally (WHO document)
6. Use in children may be problematic: Children and elderly may need to have oral twice daily dosing during initiation and titration of risperidone and then can switch to oral once daily when maintenance dose is reached. Risperidone_24_A_Ad_Final.pdf
Quotes, madcow! THose are Quotes, not "twisting your posts" - jlt19067 correctly surmises - there is NOTHING innocent about you. You merit every comment, you illiterate waste product..
Wait for it - she'll go ALL CAPS MODE on you and accuse you of stalking. Apparently in her parochial education, "quoting" means the same as "stalking" Whatev...