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Nintendo Co. Ltd. Message Board

jantrou 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2014 1:40 PM Member since: Sep 7, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Market cap down to 646M...

    by thestockmaven Nov 5, 2014 12:56 PM
    jantrou jantrou Nov 5, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    646 - 320 net cash - 75 for diavik royalty
    = 251

  • when IAG was at $1.73. They have $328 mio in net cash a liquidity position way above $1bn.

    I think it is the cheapest miner out there considering quality etc. Costs are somewhat high, but no problem because of the strong balance sheet. Doesn't matter if your real costs are $1100 or $1250 when the gold price goes below $900. But in that case IAG will be able to buy a lot of good mines. And on top you get the very promising probably multi-mio ozs project Boto for nothing.

    I expect further downside but IAG is the best bet.

  • Reply to

    Anyone look at the fiancials that just came out

    by tikas2709 Oct 30, 2014 1:48 PM
    jantrou jantrou Oct 30, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    Do don't seem to know mining in SA. No easy layoffs. They have to do section 189 consultations with AMCU (perhaps you have heard about that union in the news of the 5 months platinum stike).
    Extraction costs can't be lowered in SA as labour is a quasi fixed cost. If you extract less labour costs stay the same. You aim for higher grade to lower unit costs. You have to understand that only part of the ore is mined out and a huge percentage of the gold reef is left in place as support pillars. You can mine some parts of these support pillars: extremely high grade, in the vicinity of shafts, so faster to extract. The bad: once the pillars are weakened or partly mined out those areas are shut off, no safe access anymore.

    I bet Harmony will sell Joel to Sibanye if they get in financial problems.

  • Incredible but true.
    Current assets $586 mio
    + unrealized gain on gold holdings in curr. assets $80 mio
    - current liabilities $202 mio
    + $530 mio niobium sale
    + $750 mio revolver
    = $1744 mio

    market cap = $950 mio

    net cash is way lower, because they have $650 mio in long term debt due 2020. And the revolver (to be prolonged in 2016) is of course only financial flexibility and no real cash.

    Iamgold is the last man standing, they have access to so much cash that they can change the company into something completely different at least two times.

  • Reply to

    Probably 250 - 300 mio new shares

    by jantrou Sep 10, 2014 3:36 PM
    jantrou jantrou Sep 10, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    He didn't push, he pushed for a spinoff. Anglogold needs cash and so they have initiated this rights issue and camouflaged it with the spinoff.

    And keep in mind it's a rights issue: huge diluation in number of shares, but 0% diluation for existing shareholders that take part in the rights issue and buy new shares. All they have to do is come up with the cash.

    Shareholders not able to come up with the cash are creamed though.

    Doing the math, newco value + existing debt + Anglogold ZA as 80% of Sibanye value the whole company is still somewhat too expensive currently.

  • The rights issue needs to have a discount to the share price. 1/3 at least because during the procees the share price must not sink below the rights' price to buy new shares. And there needs to be an incentive to buy new shares.
    1/3 less = $8, thats more than 250 mio new shares, more than 60% of currently outstanding shares.

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