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jantrou 6 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2014 9:34 AM Member since: Sep 7, 2001
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  • jantrou by jantrou May 27, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    Cooke operations making a loss. Last year 760 mio or so in operating profits yielded 264 mio headline earnings. 1st quarter only 161 mio operating profit. Due to stronger rand and weaker gold price operating earnings only 70% of that, Q2 will have more production but that will be offset by Cooke losses. 115 mio operating profit per quarter = 460 mio per annum = 147 mio headline earnings = 52 mio dividends. Translates into p/e ratio 16 and dividend yield 2.2%

  • Reply to

    240mm cash flow for the quarter

    by cliquor May 9, 2014 6:58 AM
    jantrou jantrou May 12, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    BTW, I calculate $100 mio free cash flow for the quarter based on the hints they gave in the operational update. If headline earnings = fcf then $1.80/ADR = 63.3 cent per ADR dividend, still nearly 6%...

  • Reply to

    240mm cash flow for the quarter

    by cliquor May 9, 2014 6:58 AM
    jantrou jantrou May 12, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Well well, as you seem to know something about investing in goldshares, what do you think about Pan African Resources? They are a 50/50 reef based (Evander) and greenstone belt (Mpumalanga) based miner right now, They are cheaper per reserve oz than Sibanye but much more expensive based on production. And here's the catch: they can quadruple production if they develop all of their Evander projects. Much less depths than Sibanye... If they only had the cash to develop. But they can build the company step by step. I think Pan African may be the only alternative to Sibanye, maybe even a takeover target as Sibanye has the cash flow to develop a lot of projects. If Sibanye would take over Pan African they could grow production to 3 mio ozs already internally. A lot of insider selling lately though, so there could be a buying opportunity further down the road. But where else do you find projects with nearly 200k production at below $800 inclusive of capex like Poplar? With a reserve life of 20 years?
    As I have 150 or 180x as many Sibanye as Pan African I waste no thought on Sibanye. Why sell a good thing?

  • Reply to

    $14 or $15 coming

    by cliquor Apr 28, 2014 7:10 AM
    jantrou jantrou Apr 28, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    Longer term yes, but I am not so sure in the short term. The gold price is still in a downtrend. Sibanye needs a lower Rand. We should be happy if the share price consolidated here. But let's see.

  • Reply to

    Once the word is out

    by cliquor Apr 14, 2014 8:06 PM
    jantrou jantrou Apr 15, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    In fact below $20-$25 even thinking about switching into e.g. Lonmin makes no sense. Considering the crashed share price of the platinum miners that indicates the potential quite well. 2013 was the best opportunity to buy Gold Fields mines (Sibanye IS Gold Fields of 1999 if you take a look at the mine portfolio) in over 70 years.
    Strange that nobody has it on the radar. I think it is best to not write too much and just be prepared for setbacks. If one reads the latest remarks of Mathunjwa it looks as if those platinum mines will not have much value as companies will be forced to either sell them or reopen ALL of them themselves. There won't be an end to the strike if some shafts remain closed.

  • Reply to

    $7/resource oz

    by jantrou Apr 8, 2014 1:57 PM
    jantrou jantrou Apr 14, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    It's so hard to put a realistic price on Sibanye. They are the largest gold company if you consider resources. 10-40 g/t resources. But the problem is the reefs are dipping with 30 degrees and so only manual labour can be used. I think Sibanye can be compared to the mining situation in Canada back after WWII. A lot of old timers that started working in the industry in the 30s/40s and just worked on mining gold while they got older and older but no younger guys would be willing to work under those conditions. So the existing labour force will work the mines for another 20, maybe 25-30 years and then the end will be there for the west rand mines. The question is what production are they able to achieve? Kloof is producing 600,000 ozs or so per annum while hoisting capacity is a theoretical 5 mio ozs (shafts are not where the reserves are...) and metallurgical capacity 2 mio ozs per annum. I think the real game changer is Wits Gold with a lot of assets that are new, narrow depth but lower grade. And then don't forget the drilling results of Superior Mining (defunct). There really seems to be a duplication of the Freestate gold field east of the DeBron fault. I think gold mining has a bright future in South Africa. At least they have the reserves / resources. Political aspects do matter but South Africans should trade with a discount of 30-50% not more. And with these discount $20 per share are easily achievable. I don't trust the share price though, maybe we get another leg down to $6 or so. Who knows? Then it will be time to load up more again. For the time being I'll just enjoy the ride. And if the setback never comes I won't look back.

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