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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jaretwilson 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 20, 2014 12:31 PM Member since: Oct 18, 2006
  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 20, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Thanks Sean. I appreciate the offer and would be glad to do another trip, though maybe it would be ideal if at a time when Caff is not recuperating. I guess he can update us on that soon and I hope everything goes well with the surgery and healing. I hope for the next trip that a few of those who were not able to make it last time will be able to attend.

    My pessimistic side says that we'll still be waiting by those dates. I don't have any special information to that effect, I just feel like things usually take more time than we anticipate.

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 18, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    I really doubt you can write it off. You can't even write off a trip to an investor's meeting (which doesn't seem fair)

  • jaretwilson by jaretwilson Jul 18, 2014 5:07 AM Flag

    A new article on digitimes today, ChipMOS ramping Toshiba 15nm MLC NAND, slight increase to capex

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 17, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    The combination of the Ukraine/Malaysia Air attack and the Gaza strip ground invasion didn't help matters. Lots of things ended up down, tech especially.

  • Reply to

    ONLY ON THIS BOARD

    by jdunef Jul 12, 2014 3:02 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 14, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Sean, I have the same feeling. If it goes up, great, if it goes down (without a good reason), I just buy more and make a lot more. Either way I'm happy.

  • Reply to

    Strong 6.8 Quake Hits Japan

    by econ_recovering2009 Jul 11, 2014 5:12 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 11, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    Elpida is in Hiroshima which is quite far from Fukushima. It would need to be a much larger earthquake to actually have an effect. The one that destroyed the nuclear power plant in Fukushima a couple years ago was far stronger.

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 11, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Are you using the new IRTH communications address?

  • Reply to

    Micron And DRAM Cost (MU)

    by wallisweaver Jul 10, 2014 10:31 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 10, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    codi rocks, I've seen projections for the dollar/yen to go to 110 this year which would add an extra 4 cents per share per quarter. I won't make a projection myself, but Japan wants a weak currency because they are having some serious demographically-caused financial problems. Korea's currency has also been getting stronger for years now, and that's a problem for them.

  • Reply to

    Fundamentals

    by jamcracker25 Jul 7, 2014 3:38 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 8, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    Some random thoughts:

    The Himax slowdown is from Samsung's low end business in China. They do the LCD display phones (cheaper) and as far as I know they don't do they AMOLED phones, or it's a smaller part of business. Samsung's not doing so well on the low end. Himax goes ex dividend tomorrow.

    I'd be quite pleased to receive a ChipMOS offer that involves a large sum of cash for a portion of the 8150 shares, and ADRs for the rest, if the cash comes at a modest premium, preferably a premium to the price of 8150.

    Memory continues to go full steam ahead, not much to say there. Toshiba business should be going now, though probably a small amount. Great opportunity there.

    I keep saying that I'm pretty relaxed with Micron. Unless some surprising bad news comes out, if it drops a lot I'll just leverage up, confident that I'll make more going back up in the future. If on the other hand it just goes up, that's fine too. Strange price action today, but really, with such a great valuation it's not too surprising. Similar thing with IMOS. If it drops a lot I'm happy to temporarily get more shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 7, 2014 3:12 AM Flag

    haschultz, Foxconn manufactures for lots of companies, not just Apple. I don't know what you think Himax does for Apple, but it's Synaptics that does iphone display drivers, and sony and omnivision that do the CMOS image sensors.

  • Reply to

    Suggestions on a fair conversion?

    by caffeine444444 Jul 3, 2014 3:32 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 6, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    Looks like I've fallen behind on this thread so I'll just toss out a random unconnected fact: the ChipMOS web site now lists 8 analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ex Dividend

    by caffeine444444 Jun 29, 2014 6:42 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 1, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    jjj, don't own something you don't have conviction in. Or maybe you are paying for the chance to complain?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ex Dividend

    by caffeine444444 Jun 29, 2014 6:42 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 30, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    Caff, the further in the money they are, the less time premium they will have. If we say for a minute that MU goes up some more over the next few months, those $30 calls will quickly get to where the time premium is not a big deal even if there's a lot of time left. Of course the $35 are a little different story. I have Jan 2015 $12, $15, and $17 calls in a nontaxable account as a way of having extra leverage where there's no ability to have margin and the $12 have basically no premium, the $15 and $17 have a tiny amount.

    A theoretical situation, let's say it's September or October and Micron was $40 (just an example, not saying that's what it will be)...those Jan 2015 $30 calls would be worth about $10.40 (40 cents time premium), and the $35 calls would be worth about $6 (a dollar time premium)

    When MU gets close to a level where I'd be thinking about selling but I'm not ready to, I'll probably sell some of the calls and use the money to get some of the stock, then write out of the money covered calls until the stock gets called away.

    In a taxable account you want to of course try to get long term capital gains. Be aware that if you write in the money calls that may count like selling the stock on the date you do that as for computing whether you pay short or long term taxes on it when you do sell. It would reset the holding period if it looks like you are hedging in that fashion. Best to ask your accountant though.

  • Reply to

    Question for Caffeine/Marnis/Jaret

    by mannop125 Jun 23, 2014 11:39 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 24, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    mannop: interesting, I'll check it out.

    On another topic, I have an HIMX SA article coming out at 3:53pm eastern time tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    OT- Micron

    by jayand777 Jun 23, 2014 3:57 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 24, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    As someone in the Detroit area, I have an unusual view on "good paying manufacturing jobs." The unions here destroyed the auto companies by gouging them with unreasonable salary demands. People with completely unskilled labor were getting paid what an engineer might get paid in many companies and that's not sustainable from an economic view. It will drive people away from obtaining an education because the incentive is much lower. Now half the state is a wasteland and the jobs are gone anyway, and the taxpayer paid the bill.

    I'm happy to let the free market decide where the jobs go. We should try to keep jobs that require skill, education, and lengthy training, but keeping jobs through artificial subsidies, whether from the government or from us, is counterproductive.

    For an entertaining NPR podcast that is related to this subject in a weird way do a search for episode 524 me and mr jones planet money

  • Reply to

    New member intro, "Big 3", and what about SPCB?

    by merouleau Jun 19, 2014 7:23 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 20, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    I must confess I only have a small SPCB position, mostly because I had limited money available at the time that I was buying, and for that matter am still heavily leveraged with stocks I don't want to get rid of.

    I told myself I'd never have a position as big as IMOS as I'd put too much in...and then MU ended up becoming a much bigger one, but I don't want to sell at this stage.

    I can identify with marnis's feelings regarding HIMX. I do think it will be slow going for a bit. However, I've started a decent size position in it anyway as I feel it's now at the stage where you are paying for the driver business and getting the non-driver business (where much of the growth is) for free. I will probably work on an article for it this weekend or next week.

    I have had a few things I've considered getting into but have passed by because of lack of available funds. Oh well. Maybe MU or IMOS will get to a point in the coming months where I won't feel foolish decreasing the position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tax inversion....

    by bigchad789 Jun 18, 2014 11:03 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 19, 2014 2:39 AM Flag

    bigchad, they are actually getting some tax advantages now by having significant product moving through Singapore. Add to that losses they acquired when they got Elpida and the tax situation should be pretty good for now. Singapore is great for low corporate tax. Taiwan is ok with 17% tax, but has an extra 10% on any profits that aren't returned to shareholders, so Taiwanese companies end up doing lots of dividends. The Taiwanese listed shares of Inotera are not so cheap anymore, as far as acquiring the rest of them. There can be some problems with overseas profits when you want to later repatriate the cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The quarter is over and results are known to some

    by bobforaps Jun 12, 2014 2:43 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 12, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    bob, I'll be happy to be wrong and see them beat big, even at the price of loss of credibility. ;) Don't get me wrong, should be a great report, but I think the guidance will be what makes people happy. I continue to sit on a huge amount of LEAPs for the foreseeable future, and a large number of shares as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WOW IMOS

    by lee.charlie67 May 30, 2014 5:32 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 12, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Joe, no idea if they can legally do that or not, but I doubt they will. If they can and do, great, I'm happy to see shares disappear. I'd like to think if they could have done that, they would have done so by now. Either way, past track record on buybacks makes it seem unlikely to me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Great Article Jaret

    by catsaunders Jun 11, 2014 1:21 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jun 12, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    Marnis, that's understandable. I've passed on a lot of things recently because the current things I own are already so excellent, so any new thing has to be pretty impressive to be worth it. My HIMX position is much smaller than IMOS and MU, and was started partly for a little diversity. My other positions like SPCB are quite small for that reason, hard to beat the first two.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

IMOS
24.33-0.60(-2.41%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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