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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jaretwilson 70 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2014 3:40 PM Member since: Oct 18, 2006
  • Reply to

    https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=8150

    by ecoli00001 Apr 10, 2014 9:30 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Apr 12, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    Roy, kidding of course. And I pity the loon...I think you're right about him being lonely. We are inside the candy shop and he's outside with his nose pressed against the cold glass.

    A lot of good points by everyone.

    I picture a rubber band connecting the two prices of the two stocks...it's possible to stretch them further apart, but in the long run they'll be pulled together more than they'll be pulled apart.

    I think another benefit is having the company something you can actually explain in a single sentence rather than 10 minutes and a handful of diagrams. Explaining this thing to someone has been a real pain.

    I'm looking forward to the downturn as well. I was fortunate enough to sell my April calls before it hit. It was getting hard to find things that were cheap, but already some things are beginning to look a bit more reasonable.

    Someone needs to pick another destination for a trip.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=8150

    by ecoli00001 Apr 10, 2014 9:30 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Apr 12, 2014 1:07 AM Flag

    Thanks Sean. I think if you could do a complete arb...buy a share in the US and sell it in Taiwan for more...then the difference would disappear instantly. Since you can't technically do that (although you could buy it in the US and then short an equivalent number of shares in Taiwan...), I think it will take longer and just be near each other rather than be exactly even. I read about a study that showed that dual listings continue to have a small difference in values, but of course tend to move together and towards each other. I would bet they converge more when it becomes an ADR too.

    Roy...a thumbs down! This means war!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=8150

    by ecoli00001 Apr 10, 2014 9:30 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Apr 11, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    I think we'd be heading up if not for this lousy market.

    However, I can't complain...as turturo and roy said, it's overreactions like this that give us more long term opportunities. It's sad how many people these days are short term traders with no knowledge or research, just chasing after things as they move one way or the other. If things keep heading down I'll be glad to use some leverage to once again enjoy the move back up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    April 10 th

    by sean777007 Apr 9, 2014 4:07 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Apr 10, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    I have a new SA article out on IMOS, but it's only available to pro subscribers until 9:02 AM tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    April 10 th

    by sean777007 Apr 9, 2014 4:07 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Apr 10, 2014 7:51 AM Flag

    Ha! Hmm I think technically 8150 is the asymptote and we are the wave doing the approaching? It's too early in the morning for mathematical philosophy, Marnis.

    I'd also settle for the two stocks being parabolas nested inside each other...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson by jaretwilson Apr 8, 2014 12:57 AM Flag

    Novatek and Ilitek March numbers both strong. I think we're going to be pretty happy with this month's IMOS revenue number.

    Johnboy and Caff, I also picked up a few extra MU shares today. If it continues down I'll continue adding. Completely irrational selling and I'm willing to be patient and capitalize on it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Apr 4, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    It was pretty good. They should listen to the one from 6 months ago if they want to hear one that wasn't so great.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Please explain 8150 offering price of 25-30

    by jamcracker25 Mar 27, 2014 12:30 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 31, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Marnis: Did you get logged out of SA somehow? That could do it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 28, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    It will be good to get it out of the way. I do think they could have gotten a much better price, but it wouldn't make any difference at this low volume. The important thing is having another barrier removed to get real trading and coverage going on there. The Taiwanese equivalent price has been higher than ours lately and that should only continue with the IPO overhang gone.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Moving a market..

    by mikeandkay7 Mar 27, 2014 8:52 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 28, 2014 6:57 AM Flag

    citrus, yeah it's clearly false (dramexhcange is fond of posting ridiculous rumors it finds)...SNDK has been conservative about capacity additions and is likely to continue to be. Unfortunately some people don't do their homework.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Moving a market..

    by mikeandkay7 Mar 27, 2014 8:52 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 28, 2014 4:03 AM Flag

    mike,

    I just posted a link on SA of another form of moving the market -- BS rumors. Anyone remember that false rumor in late December shortly before earnings where there was a claim that Hynix was going to build a new fab, and MU tanked, and it turned out to be false? Now there's a new rumor from an unnamed source that is also probably false, that Toshiba / SanDisk are building capacity.

    I think it's false (or at least misleading) because earlier this month Kipp Bedard said in a presentation that Micron had reduced their prediction of NAND supply increase this year to 37% because of a publicly announced decrease in planned expansion by Toshiba. Just like the Hynix rumor, I think this one is something that was already known about, but being presented as something new. Funny how both times the timing is a week or two before earnings...

    I posted a link in a stocktalk on SA, or you can also find the story on dramexchange.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Please explain 8150 offering price of 25-30

    by jamcracker25 Mar 27, 2014 12:30 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 28, 2014 2:28 AM Flag

    Caff and lizheng, I didn't see the article, but my guess was going to be that if it was talking about MEMS it might mean magnetometers (e-compass) from AKM. They only cost like 50 cents each in bulk and are only the size of a pinhead so I doubt ChipMOS makes much on each, but AKM is the market leader and so they are in hundreds of millions of phones.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Please explain 8150 offering price of 25-30

    by jamcracker25 Mar 27, 2014 12:30 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 27, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    Selling? No, I'm more apt to buy here than sell. I don't have the cash available right now, but if I do soon and it's any lower I'll be a buyer. I like the potential revenue increase.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Heres the problem

    by bobforaps Mar 27, 2014 7:08 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 27, 2014 7:33 AM Flag

    bobforaps, that is false. There were no extraordinary items added in non-GAAP. In fact, that's exactly the point of non-GAAP, to remove the one time items, not to add them in. non-GAAP is intended to be a normalized version of earnings. The previous quarter (.77 non-GAAP) had some negative items in GAAP such as the Elpida inventory markdown that is an artifact of the purchase accounting from the acquisition, but nothing major. The quarter before that (.29 non-GAAP), GAAP had a large positive from the purchase of Elpida, and of course non-GAAP didn't since things like that are removed from non-GAAP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 27, 2014 1:04 AM Flag

    I thought you were going to do that a month ago when you last asked about them? I hate to say it, but it's a bit late now because they have very little value left. They have a bid of 23 cents, while the January ones at the same strike price have an ask of 1.90. Anyway, there is no trick to rolling them forward, you just sell the ones you have and use the money to buy the new ones.

    I don't believe that the market makers are controlling the price to any great degree. It's just normal volatility plus a weaker market. The funds that want it to go up have far more shares and buying power than the market makers that want it to go down.

  • Reply to

    Time to review the race between IMOS and MU

    by silentbob71 Mar 26, 2014 10:54 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 26, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    Thanks. I should stipulate that oftentimes people put a lowball number hoping that it will do even better, but I meant that as an "honest" number instead. I modeled slightly better DRAM pricing than Micron guided (+2% rather than flat) slightly worse NAND pricing (about 3% worse) and slightly better NAND bit increases (about 3% better.) I left the cost reductions and other values closer to average levels. If for instance DRAM pricing came in at -3% instead of +2% that would be more like 89 cents, still a beat but less of one, just as an example of how it can vary. Although Yahoo is giving 74 cents consensus, some places I think are still giving 61 cents consensus. Regardless, with recent price action, people don't seem to have very high expectations so a beat should be likely.

    lizheng's summary of the IMOS video was helpful, but I wish we had a full English transcript of it.

    Other than general market weakness which is certainly a possibility, I'd expect IMOS and MU both to do very well in upcoming weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 25, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    Thanks li zheng! I'm looking for the video, but don't see it...where do I find it?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 24, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    Find me on there with my name as my address and invite me to the group, or search by my name, and I'll post some things to try it out.

    (however I should say in advance that's not an invitation for random people to add me as I'm trying to keep the number of friends down...I don't even have any family members on my friend list)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other Alternatives

    by johnboywalton56 Mar 16, 2014 5:56 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 18, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    Marnis or johnboy, one of you could go ahead and create a facebook group and get things rolling, since you've both put some energy into getting people organized in the past.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other Alternatives

    by johnboywalton56 Mar 16, 2014 5:56 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Mar 17, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    johnboy, I haven't found anything better than Facebook (I never thought I'd type that sentence in reference to anything...) There's google groups, but the interface is a bit more rudimentary. Also google+ has communities, but again they seem less developed, though I don't have experience with those...a shame that google+ didn't take off because it has a good design philosophy. There's various message board programs and scripts that you can set up yourself, including quite a nice one I used years ago called scoop, but it's more trouble than it's worth -- last time I used it years ago I rented a server, set up the database, registered domain names, etc. which is more trouble than it's worth with no real gain.

    I have thought about a couple ways to share some data that might be interesting, but I'm not sure about the privacy issues for either and can go into more about that once we have a basic framework created.

IMOS
21.60+0.57(+2.73%)3:12 PMEDT

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