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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jaretwilson 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 17, 2014 12:24 PM Member since: Oct 18, 2006
  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 17, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    I don't see buying the SPIL shares as having much (if any) effect on the ADR conversion proposal since the SPIL transaction should happen next month, and there's no reason they can't continue planning the ADR conversion while the days go by for the SPIL purchase. I'm happy to see some shares disappear at a reasonable price, and everyone has been wanting a buyback for so long. A buyback of this size would take a significant amount of time to do on the open market and would probably cost the company more.

    I am guessing that much of the reason why things are taking so incredibly long is that SJ and SK and the lawyers want to make sure that everything is done right. They don't want years of litigation to deal with afterwards. I'm sure they want to see everyone happy. They have to jump through every hoop presented by a couple governments and satisfy two sets of shareholders while doing it. I think that it's pretty unlikely they'll present something that we won't vote for because that would be a nightmare scenario for them...years of planning and it all comes to people publicly complaining about it and voting against it. Of course the same goes for the Taiwanese shareholders. This whole process is just like sending a bill through both houses of congress, and not getting it vetoed by the president or ruled unconstitutional by the supreme court.

    The only way to make it look attractive to us if they want to buy back 8150 shares from us is to pay us fairly. What we have now are shares in IMOS, and what they want to buy are shares in 8150. They have to pay us something above the going rate for 8150 if they expect us to give them up, and that has to mean it would give us something above the going rate for IMOS if they expect us to move forward. We're not going to vote to lose something from what we already have. The question then becomes how much of a premium do we deserve, and that's a question for independent valuation experts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPIL Repurchase

    by davegras Aug 14, 2014 6:31 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 14, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Not surprised to see IMOS up today as there was no reason for yesterday's drop. If it had instead dropped again I'd be bargain shopping. Quite satisfied with the SPIL arrangement and it's not a surprise given the ThaiLin equivalent arrangement.

    Sean, didn't know you still had OVTI, that's great. I wish I'd listened to myself and kept it a bit longer, but that's fine, can't hold everything.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is Jaret W. still out there?

    by lhaymes1 Aug 13, 2014 3:36 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 13, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    I commented on here earlier. I've just been a bit busier lately, so I've had a bit less time to post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150/IMOS arbitrage review

    by hat_trick Aug 12, 2014 6:22 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 13, 2014 2:31 AM Flag

    I was pretty satisfied with the quarter. I think they are sandbagging on third quarter revenue and margin as July was so strong and they have good expectations for things going forward, so the meager growth seems too low. The partial acquisition is an interesting move that keeps up with a similar Chipbond move. The SPIL buyback is a nice little surprise. I wish they could do more similar buybacks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    great call

    by jaretwilson Aug 7, 2014 3:00 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 8, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    Hey Bob. Hard to say -- short term is a lot harder to predict than long term. It was definitely oversold so maybe it holds this level. Either way I won't be selling any time soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson by jaretwilson Aug 7, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    I thought it was a great call. Core business on target, Samsung revenue coming back up, 4k getting major traction. Touch controllers are a tiny business but are seeing success. CMOS technology sounds like it's getting competitive and that's important for the long term. LCoS very promising and it sounds like design work is accelerating -- the Lenovo confirmation is nice. Reduced profitability due to more R&D, but to me that's acceptable from a company with a proven profit-making track record, big opportunities, and net cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OT: GILD

    by hat_trick Aug 2, 2014 9:22 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 3, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Someone else asked me about GILD recently, but I haven't had a chance yet to look at it in depth. My initial impression matches Dave's stance, that it's underpriced and safe, but no longer EXTREMELY underpriced. I could be wrong on that though because I don't know how their pipeline looks. One or two major late stage drug candidates makes all the difference.

  • Reply to

    Toshiba orders

    by jaretwilson Jul 18, 2014 5:07 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Aug 1, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    Yeah, I think HIMX long term prospects are still solid and this is a good price.

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 20, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Thanks Sean. I appreciate the offer and would be glad to do another trip, though maybe it would be ideal if at a time when Caff is not recuperating. I guess he can update us on that soon and I hope everything goes well with the surgery and healing. I hope for the next trip that a few of those who were not able to make it last time will be able to attend.

    My pessimistic side says that we'll still be waiting by those dates. I don't have any special information to that effect, I just feel like things usually take more time than we anticipate.

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 18, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    I really doubt you can write it off. You can't even write off a trip to an investor's meeting (which doesn't seem fair)

  • jaretwilson by jaretwilson Jul 18, 2014 5:07 AM Flag

    A new article on digitimes today, ChipMOS ramping Toshiba 15nm MLC NAND, slight increase to capex

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 17, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    The combination of the Ukraine/Malaysia Air attack and the Gaza strip ground invasion didn't help matters. Lots of things ended up down, tech especially.

  • Reply to

    ONLY ON THIS BOARD

    by jdunef Jul 12, 2014 3:02 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 14, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Sean, I have the same feeling. If it goes up, great, if it goes down (without a good reason), I just buy more and make a lot more. Either way I'm happy.

  • Reply to

    Strong 6.8 Quake Hits Japan

    by econ_recovering2009 Jul 11, 2014 5:12 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 11, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    Elpida is in Hiroshima which is quite far from Fukushima. It would need to be a much larger earthquake to actually have an effect. The one that destroyed the nuclear power plant in Fukushima a couple years ago was far stronger.

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 11, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Are you using the new IRTH communications address?

  • Reply to

    Micron And DRAM Cost (MU)

    by wallisweaver Jul 10, 2014 10:31 AM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 10, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    codi rocks, I've seen projections for the dollar/yen to go to 110 this year which would add an extra 4 cents per share per quarter. I won't make a projection myself, but Japan wants a weak currency because they are having some serious demographically-caused financial problems. Korea's currency has also been getting stronger for years now, and that's a problem for them.

  • Reply to

    Fundamentals

    by jamcracker25 Jul 7, 2014 3:38 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 8, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    Some random thoughts:

    The Himax slowdown is from Samsung's low end business in China. They do the LCD display phones (cheaper) and as far as I know they don't do they AMOLED phones, or it's a smaller part of business. Samsung's not doing so well on the low end. Himax goes ex dividend tomorrow.

    I'd be quite pleased to receive a ChipMOS offer that involves a large sum of cash for a portion of the 8150 shares, and ADRs for the rest, if the cash comes at a modest premium, preferably a premium to the price of 8150.

    Memory continues to go full steam ahead, not much to say there. Toshiba business should be going now, though probably a small amount. Great opportunity there.

    I keep saying that I'm pretty relaxed with Micron. Unless some surprising bad news comes out, if it drops a lot I'll just leverage up, confident that I'll make more going back up in the future. If on the other hand it just goes up, that's fine too. Strange price action today, but really, with such a great valuation it's not too surprising. Similar thing with IMOS. If it drops a lot I'm happy to temporarily get more shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 7, 2014 3:12 AM Flag

    haschultz, Foxconn manufactures for lots of companies, not just Apple. I don't know what you think Himax does for Apple, but it's Synaptics that does iphone display drivers, and sony and omnivision that do the CMOS image sensors.

  • Reply to

    Suggestions on a fair conversion?

    by caffeine444444 Jul 3, 2014 3:32 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 6, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    Looks like I've fallen behind on this thread so I'll just toss out a random unconnected fact: the ChipMOS web site now lists 8 analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ex Dividend

    by caffeine444444 Jun 29, 2014 6:42 PM
    jaretwilson jaretwilson Jul 1, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    jjj, don't own something you don't have conviction in. Or maybe you are paying for the chance to complain?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

IMOS
24.33-0.30(-1.22%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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