No need to be sad.Price targets never make any sense no matter how "credible" the source is but on the other hand tell you something about mindset of the source. Top names do not sign up their names under such as silly idea.
"What is the Market thinking? We'll never know - because it isn't".
I carefully read your statement and realised how far apart and how close we are at the same time.
It is obvious to me that broad market risk/systemic/ doesn't exist based on your interpretation and couldn't disagree more.The greatest stocks in the history of stock market are incapable of escaping this reality.
As a matter of fact this risk is the most common factor in the ultimate failure of 95% of small investors who loose in long run.
My 1-2 year VG share price target is strictly based on systemic risk and if i believed this bull market was over i wouldn't hesitate to get out of VG right now.
Another opportunity to find out when our brain is our worst enemy.
Almost all stocks are under total control of negative factor of systemic risk called China/ this time/.
I anticipate positive closure for broad US market in the range of 0-10% appreciation by the end of December.
Chinese stock market has been dealing with dissolving equity bubble of 2004-2007 and it is not restricted to how low it is going to find it's ultimate support level.Whatever it takes to gets rid of the most stubborn market participants in order to clear path for another secular bull run.
Of these two CCJ is the only one with long and credible trend not to mention size difference.
I'm glad you mentioned CCJ because if this bear cycle is the most severe in history than CCJ has lot more potential downside before share price reaches the ultimate bottom.
All i can say i'm more comfortable with accumulating cash rather than shares at the moment and applying patience to my second 50% purchase based on broad market risk assessment and lack of positive sector related catalyst.
Good luck i could be wrong as well.
In my ho we are under total influence of systemic risk due to Chinese market unraveling and perhaps attempting to establish floor of the final bottom for the secular bear cycle. Top to current level FXI/proxy for Chinese market/ is down 50% since October of 2007. There is additional downside probability of 20-30% from current share price point. This level has to tested in order to complete the cycle. In October this year Chinese market will have been in the shortest secular bear market trend based on historical evidence/assuming the final bottom is reached/. Of course there is no guarantee what i'm saying is going to happen but i'm confident that the bottom of 2009 has to be reached sooner or later. As long as bearish systemic risk in charge there is no hope for change of the long trend.
This my answer to your question whether UUUU has reached final bottom.
Except that interest rate hike is looking less likely every day but you are correct and i'm sure others will be able to find more reasons.
I can think of one and my favorite:Mr.Market is always looking for creative ways to confuse you because confused people are much more likely to repeat same mistakes over and over again.
Congratulations i did not have balls to jump in at the ultimate bottom. At the time risk of loosing everything seemed too realistic.
Even thou i believe human population is behind climate changes i'm also not too far from your understanding of the relationship. After all based on scientific discoveries there was period of time in earth's history when global temperatures fluctuated between mid 90's and mid 40's for almost 200 million years during which dinosaurs covered entire globe.
What happens now,whether you call it global cooling or warming doesn't matter to me.One of two things i have hard time accepting is the fact that almost every product on earth that has been created since beginning of industrial revolutions in some way resulted in polluting natural environment. To pretend that this factor in enormously complex earth climate is negligible is beyond common sense.
The second thing i do not understand is the fact that nature offers us example of the most abundant and powerful source of energy which we use it without questioning and even radiation as a side affect is no big deal but if the same source of energy is in hands of another human being we can't accept it.
If it's so important to you to know why here is the list:
-someone/long/ has the power to manipulate price in order to buy
-someone/short/ has the power to manipulate price in order to cover for profit
- someone has the power to manipulate price in order to prove that $5.65 is not true support level
-someone has the power to manipulate price in order to prove that you overpaid for recently bought shares
- someone has the power to prove that recent transaction was bad deal
-someone has the power to prove that share price is not relatively strong/ closing the gap?/
-someone has the power to manipulate price in order for you to believe that there is bad news around corner
-majority of participants/traders/ sold based on reversion to mean principle
-majority of traders sold based on conviction that broad market correction is not over
-majority sold based on conviction that bull market is done
or just fluctuation of share price which is impossible to predict or understand on day to day bases.
I'm sure there are more probable "reasons" i missed.
Good luck,have sound night of sleep and "don't worry be happy"
"Damn...after 25 years of reading this kind of silly #$%$,"
25 years to get out of denial.That's not too bad .Many never wake up so for your own sanity's sake i hope you are out. But then again you could be wrong as well.
Share price targets are generally irrelevant but helpful to some extend.They represent positive or negative expectations of indidual participants and depending on circle of influence pt can become catalyst for share price. What i mean by that is if for example Warren Buffet as oppose to any talking head.
You can come up with your own pt if you care.
My price target for next 12 months is $5-17,just to be on safe side and conviction that secular broad bull market is not over untill after 2017.
Right now there is generation long disconnect between expectations of primary sources of future electricity production for world population and climate change.
Vast majority of people are still in denial and nobody knows how much more suffering is needed to get to the point where nuclear industry is rediscovered again as the only way to save future generations from extinction.
Our pain may be short lived in this market environment due to historical statistical data. Higher volatility usually results in shorter duration.
I wouldn't be surprise to see the end of this broad market correction in September.
Sometimes having crystal ball doesn't help.
About 10 years ago i accumulated about 100 thousand shares of CHINA first Chinese stock on NASDAQ only to get out of it in 2011 with small loss. My average selling price was in low $2.
If someone having crystal ball told me to hold on because in one year i would more than double my money what would you do?
And that's exactly what happened but not before the stock bottomed out at 10 cents.
We can speculate until hell freezes over where UUUU share price is going o be in 10 years with high degree of accuracy but in mean time only market can determine timing and level of the final share price bottom.
Because we are in the market stage where only handful of public companies are suppose to survive and the only weapon market has is to push share prices as low as it can.
Are you absolutely sure UUUU will be around in current form one-two years from now?
This is simple. If you think you are smarter than the market then the only hope to make money is to pretend you are not.
Another words if you buy based strictly on emotional confidence then you loose in long run.If you buy based on law of probabilities and statistical data then you have a chance because you become partial owner of this casino called stock market as oppose of being part of the gambling public.