I see,everybody is focused on more important stuff,like upgrades,institutional holdings and news.Patents are different story.They are future pps driver.
Regarding your short position. US market is in secular bull and based on this formula the probability of negative appreciation for any particular year are low.
Just my 10 cents.
Pretty much agree with everything you are saying including inability to speculate about final bottom even if this bottom is related to intermediate trend only. Unfortunately tax loss selling pressure may be present until last trading day of 2015. However i do believe that some if not most selling participants are not desperate amateurs and have desire to buy back shares after 30 days.
One more observation: what's happening with u sector reminds me of Jan-Feb 2009 when systemic risk in minds of many participants became unbearable to deal with,precisely at the time where was the lowest.
Friend of mind called me one day and said: I'm afraid this is twenty first century great depression broad market is foreseeing and i would't be surprised to see another 50% drop in broad market.
Not long ago some,including myself thought UUUU at $2.5 would be great gift but now we have no clue where the bottom is. Fascinating exercise to watch your brain at work. How many times it is our worst enemy.
???? S&P 500 just went through health restoring correction so i don't understand.Unless you see another leg down but there is no reason for it. It's possible but what do you see that i don't?.
I got more than 100% UUUU but rather not talk about it at this time.Mr.Market doesn't like lack of humility.
Daily close below $11.6 would increase chance of continuation of current bear trend with intermediate market's focus on $7.
"While we are increasingly convinced that the market needs to see lower oil prices for longer to achieve a production cut, the source of this production decline and its forcing mechanism is growing more uncertain, raising the possibility that we may ultimately clear at a sharply lower price with cash costs around $20 a barrel Brent prices," Goldman said in a report."
If you are contrarian as i am here is one of first signs of awaken permabears flexing muscles. Once they get their full confidence back it will be time for trend change.
I think you are living with little contradiction regarding concept of survival as real, physical company and survival as publicly traded company in current form.
Fascinating to watch.As Chinese proverb goes: may you live in interesting times. CCJ in next three days determines intermediate trend direction of u group in my h.o.
i do have fairly high confidence of U stocks to join broad commodity sector recovery.
As we speak 2/3 of global economy is in recession but the most important individual country besides US is China which maybe coming out of secular bear.
If you look at Chinese stock market period of time between 2003-2007 you can't miss clearly visible equity bubble. It takes time to dissolve any asset class bubble. There are encouraging signs that last year's cyclical bear was the last one and in next one-two year period the 2007 top might be breached.
When you have US,China and most likely Japan economy consistently growing again the commodity sector has to recover.
I have discovered interesting relationship between stock market and economy. There are times when stock market is supporting and "encouraging" growth and there are times when stock market is preoccupy with dissolving asset class bubble and economy doesn't matter.
If you look at our market between 2000 and 2009 when US economy went through two volatile recessions while US stock market had dissolved five asset class bubbles. The only remaining index struggling is QQQ still below year 2000 highs as the only which developed double bubble prior 2000. This index is on it's way to breach 120/all time high/ in next several months,after 16 years of "consolidation".
I wish i had your confidence. Unfortunately if you take under account my personal history of involvement with stock market there is clearly negative relationship between success and confidence.
What you say makes sense even though i try hard avoiding speculation about rumors. I always assume that you never really know what's behind short term stock price movements. Hey,most talking heads you see on tv have no clue how to dissect and understand long term trend of market indexes which are visible to me,amateur.
Let me make tis statement since i failed to bailed out with small loss/10-20%/ and now i'm faced with the dilemma:
do i keep buying in order to lower my average pps,watch and attempt to identify final bottom or do nothing?
It doesn't sound like confident statement, does it. And i like it this way because based on my experience confidence should be only related to your market strategy not individual transactions.
You are correct selling at his level shows desperation.On the other hand if there are still more weak hands hoping for miracle market will find them by using the most effective tool in its arsenal called downtrend hammer.
I think it would be reasonable time to ask question as far as relative value UUUU v/v CCJ based on cash per share and book value.
Seems to me that even at $7 CCJ is more expensive than current share price of UUUU, in my humble opinion.
However in this environment which has nothing to do with reasonable valuations i wouldn't be supprised to see UUUU at $1. We are already in penny stock category as of today.
"you just need to be close"
Million $ question: are we close?
Probable reverse h&shoulder fromation is almost forgone conclusion so what's next.
Here are some suggestions: V bottom, W bottom, tripple bottom or another r.h&s down the road?
First three most likely will happen on much higher volume with high probability of testing $7 level
Third sign is when you either get out to relieve pain or realize you have lost so much it doesn't make sense to sell now.Getting out denial state of mind is perhaps the most painful mental excersize so next time assuming you are still connected to the market, get serious about training and preparing your brain for similar experience.
You can wisper in his ear to upgrade VG just for window dressing if nothing else.Afterall VG is one of best ytd performing stocks.
I was going to call him right after earnings report but share price performance failed to satisfy some people's expectations.
Let me give you a hint how you know we are close to the bottom.
Firs sign is when your strategy of share accumulation suddenly runs in to wall of mental resistance.
Second sign is when you start thinking about cutting your losses.
What's happening with the sector is convergence of technical and fundamental factors which are tools in market's arsenal with primary focus on elimination of weak players,consolidation of strong.
On technical side intoduction of fear factor which forces even strong hands to give up.
This is not just another cyclical bear bottom formation.This is equivalent of great depression.
I'm looking at the probability of CCJ share pricel drop to 2004 bottom support level.