Actually I got this one totally wrong. I'm neither predicting nor speculating. Obviously first sentence contains contradiction.
I do not predict I speculate.If we continue in the same pps channel within 12-18 months.
Brod market risk looks favorable for next two years,atlhough starting next year my market timing model visibilty shrinks to 6-9 months.
There maybe even more powerfull force behind pps intermediate trend that has been mentioned before.
April 24 2011-March 29 2015= CUP and March 29-May 17 2015= Handle. According to this formation ultimate level is IPO share price.
In my opinion whatever is discussed on message boards manipulators use to their advantage therefore i'm very hesitant to disclose any details of my transactions. I also use mental stop loss orders rather than mechanical.What you have agreed to with your wife sound reasonable but remember your loss is somebody else's gain and vice versa. There is not much difference between playing poker or stock market.
What's positive from your statement is that doesn't sound like decision making based in fear.
As far as i remember not long ago you considered $2.5 to be excellent entry price so why $1.5 is worth selling?
First of all you need to look at UUUU from angle of relative value v/v competitors and it is time snap shot comparison because I do not believe this stock is in deliberate permanent death spiral. Most likely it has experienced temporary relative weakness lately.
Second of all $1.5 it is not so distant possibility anymore since you showed your cards and we do not know how much recent selling is related to tax loss and how much is pure manipulation.
Also as I mentioned earlier based on technical factors outside of of immediate U environment there is good probability we are approaching the "dawn when night is at it's darkest period of time".
No matter what's your decision I wish you peace of mind because peaceful mind knows better.
Happy Thanksgiving to all mb members.Long and short!
Lukester i don't understand how can you be successful speculator if "timing is everything" is not taken very seriously.
Lets say you decided to invest in technology stocks in 2000.To be on "safe side" you bough QQQ.
Fifteen years later you still are waiting to brake even. U stocks are highly cyclical and obviously not good candidate for buy/hold strategy of more than 2-4 years.
Take look at CCJ to see that since 2003 it has gone through three cycles and currently it is closing on fourth/four year bear tend cycle.UUUU doesn't have such long history but obviously being much higher beta coeff. it has been more volatile on both sides of similar looking trend.
Virtually all i do with my market research revolves around precise timing. That's where max rewards have roots in. Currently i'm 100% in stocks with all speculative assets that i have,including Roth IRA because there is no other asset class since Feb 2009 that can provide competitive appreciation but i'm not complacent. Quite contrary,starting next year,based on my own market timing model,time horizon for my potential market exposure will shrink from several years to 3-6 months visibility into future.
Are you #$%$ off or something?
You never know unless you try.First of all call Cramer and demand upgrade then Citron and tell him he is making you angry and it is not good for you.
You come accross as intelligent,shrewd investor and i really enjoy your posts. Obviously you have yours,hopefully successful strategy. I'm on the other hand is someone who sees stock market as enormously complex and powerfull phenomenon that is not totally understandable by 99% participants.You and I included. Having said that obviously we have to have a strategy that has to be evolving with ever changing market's tactics.I deliberately avoid description "ever changing market" because if you know how to read past history of the market you will agree that what we are dealing with is the same "animal" in different skin color every time you use proper lens.
It is possible that U sector is isolated from commodity and energy sectors but this is not how history teaches us. Take example of X multiyear chart and overlay it with CCJ.
Now, think about global economy as whole and three most important components of growth: US,Europe and Far East. Then study past several years stock market index charts of above components.
Also when you deal with present market sentiment of all participants you are doing technical analysis which is probaly the most important factor in your decisions because "timing is everything".
From my experience i can tell you sometimes the most precise signals come form outside of your immediate focus area so you have to be open to all possibilities.
I just do not believe U sector is able to recover alone but reserve right to be wrong.
I see,everybody is focused on more important stuff,like upgrades,institutional holdings and news.Patents are different story.They are future pps driver.
Regarding your short position. US market is in secular bull and based on this formula the probability of negative appreciation for any particular year are low.
Just my 10 cents.
Pretty much agree with everything you are saying including inability to speculate about final bottom even if this bottom is related to intermediate trend only. Unfortunately tax loss selling pressure may be present until last trading day of 2015. However i do believe that some if not most selling participants are not desperate amateurs and have desire to buy back shares after 30 days.
One more observation: what's happening with u sector reminds me of Jan-Feb 2009 when systemic risk in minds of many participants became unbearable to deal with,precisely at the time where was the lowest.
Friend of mind called me one day and said: I'm afraid this is twenty first century great depression broad market is foreseeing and i would't be surprised to see another 50% drop in broad market.
Not long ago some,including myself thought UUUU at $2.5 would be great gift but now we have no clue where the bottom is. Fascinating exercise to watch your brain at work. How many times it is our worst enemy.
???? S&P 500 just went through health restoring correction so i don't understand.Unless you see another leg down but there is no reason for it. It's possible but what do you see that i don't?.
I got more than 100% UUUU but rather not talk about it at this time.Mr.Market doesn't like lack of humility.
Daily close below $11.6 would increase chance of continuation of current bear trend with intermediate market's focus on $7.
"While we are increasingly convinced that the market needs to see lower oil prices for longer to achieve a production cut, the source of this production decline and its forcing mechanism is growing more uncertain, raising the possibility that we may ultimately clear at a sharply lower price with cash costs around $20 a barrel Brent prices," Goldman said in a report."
If you are contrarian as i am here is one of first signs of awaken permabears flexing muscles. Once they get their full confidence back it will be time for trend change.