I guess lot of people are not capable of understanding principle of "expanding universe" which applies to all walks of everybody's life.Even those who get it do not believe in it unconditionally.Boggles my mind because this is the only true fact of life,absolute reality.
What I mean by that is that our personal attitude about Vonage should as flexible as the principle of always "expanding universe".There is no such as thing as the identical PRESENT MOMENT.Everything changes all the time and our every day activities including investing,trading or speculation have to reflect that.
It is not only possible but absolutely essential for our survival to be able to see or feel bearish and bullish side of Mr.Market at the same time.
As I read some mb members posts it seems to me that they are detached from reality by not being able to see correlation between share price performance, broad market trend and fundamentals. I understand perfectly and accept unconditionally principle of irrational market during relatively short periods of time.
But to claim that market can be irrational for as long #$%$ years requires major rebuttal.
In spring-summer 2009 VG share bottomed at $.3 then exploded with unprecedented buying volume creating one of most incredible intermediate bullish trends with share price appreciation close to 1800% at the top.
In my opinion behind this incredible pps bull run were four factors: market's technical exhaustion of most stubborn longs, fundamental catalyst/VG world announcement/, diminished threat of bankruptcy and indiscriminate broad market buying frenzy which creates technical momentum and in late stages major overvaluation problem for most stocks.
The good news is that we are likely at the end of the period of realignment between market's expectations and slow fundamental progress. Of course this is just a theory and others have different ideas and explanations why VG has underperformed broad market since spring 2011.The easy one to buy and sell is irrational market theory but if you can make consistent money based on it than I have to admit that you are perfect alignment with reality.
If you look at NASDAQ the best performing and most volatile index since mid 90's and the only one still looking to brake through 2000 ceiling the most logical time is spring-summer 2015 which indicates that we are in bullish market environment at least for few more months.
This info-speculation is directed toward "smart VG shorts".
Good luck to all good people long or short.
If this is the case then we are talking about new chapter in VG history.Residential business is not in market's focus for several months..New CEO is pro small business and he will be judged based on progress or lack of.
Vonage gets at least one second chance.
I'm not attacking you personally or facts you post but one sided interpretation of facts.
One day VG share price will hit ultimate ceilling.This is a fact not speculation.Most likely due to some positive fundamental factor and technical momentum.I do not care what you are going to do with your VG profits at that point.What I care about are your annonymus followers getting burned.
You can be right and lose money and you can be wrong and make money.In this area of life grey color totally dominates every stock environment but you sound like George Bush Jr.who operates based on two colors black and white.
I know you monitor message board like hawk.The fact is you respond slectively.
I do not worry about your state of mind.I'm too busy dealing with mine but sometimes what you say can't be ignored.
Like "hugely positive effect of Citron's automatic selling plan".
How about buy backs possible negative effect on liquidity?
Is there any wonder I do usually bother to answer your posts?
"Buying pressure = an average of 30.6K shares ( $104K ) , EVERY DAY, for the next 4 years.
Most birds never learn new tune so let us use skeptical lens to analyze this statement.
VG share buy back announcement had been designed to neutralize bad news about Brazil so presenting it as positive factor pushing share price up for next 4 years shows your state of mind rather than reality.
Using the same logic you should say Citron's automatic selling was going to produce "selling pressure".
Generally speaking share price buy backs are decided primary in order to boost investors confidence and hopefully support share price during corrections not much else. There is even no guarantee that book value/second positive/ 4 years from now is going to be higher or lower because the company can issue new shares at any time before the end of the period.
Smart buy backs are strategically timed in order to take advantage of periods of lower prices so presenting it as daily "buying pressure" makes me believe that there is lot of Pac's brain behind this logic.
Another factor to consider is that Chinese Stock market is in secular bear since 2007.Compare last 5 year trend of FXI and DJI to see.
I notice increased emphasis on small business advertising.Combination of wireless app. with extensions plus cost cutting is the way to get out of this share price slump.Share buy back is cosmetic move for the most part since it will only increse book value of $.2.There is no substitute for real growth and in this area VG can become no 1 pretty quickly.
There is no secret for somebody who carefully studied my messages that in last several weeks I have been shaving my long position in personal account. Learned it from Allen Greenspan: Mr.Market doesn't like arrogance therefore I haven't advertised this move. My retirement long position still intact though and this is exactly how I feel about VG. I sense new CEO as the best one Vonage has ever had but the company as whole still struggles to find traction and it is going to take more than 6-9 months to get on continuous growth path/hopefully/.Mr.Market is not known to be able to see beyond this time frame.
I think some people on this mb have to be occasionally reminded about 101 rule of stock investing;
The idea of investing in public company by becoming stock holder is to participate in business growth.
You can call me skeptic or reluctant permabull but not basher as true exuberant permabulls wants you to believe.
This is exactly how permabull should sound. Congratulation Dgroves. No negatives and high expectations.
Is there anybody in right mind who doesn't sense slow death of VG's core business?
Is there anybody who doesn't believe VG is in transitional stage?
I'm starting to like new CEO. No nonsense, healthy dose of reality, knowing what's important.
In mean time I EXPECT pps to aim at book level next year.
Dgroves! What's with "I expect the new management broom will sweep clean, cutting waste and controlling costs". Vonage is and has been one of the most efficiently run company.
This is highly manipulated stock.I wouldn't trust TA at this point.In my opinion there is higher probability of YOD testing 52 week low before resumption of secular bull trend.
Thanks for your response:"Vonage Offers Free Calling to the Philippines"
Due to increasing lack of interest in mb discussion participation,visible apathy and realtive strenght of pps in comparison to EGHT and CALL it would be logical for shorts to start covering around 52 week low.
I think those who wait for VG to test $1.6 are too greedy at this point.I'm anticipating oversold rally which has not much to do with fundamentals althou you never know what kind of catalyst might influence share price.
When you close to inflection point even negative catalyst can push pps in other direction.
Jake, my increased mb activity usually coinsides with decreasing activity of permabulls which is usually related to share price action but also negatively affects your attitude.
Relax, is not in your best interest to join perma-club no matter how incredible they sound.
ps.If you want you can call me jaseymour from now on as long as have little more fun.
I've learned that attempting to fight paranoia is counterproductive
Jake are you familiar with the symptom of this disease called paranoia?
I know for sure you show advanced symptoms of insanity by never ending obsession with trying to make friends with Ducati and Pac.
Leave them alone they reside on different planet and will never agree with you.I'm on the other hand your best friend and maybe the only one on this mb.If you care to look little closer you will find out that our writing styles are different.But unlike you I care little less what other people think about my integrity.
Thanks for the observation but your suggestion is wrong.
Going back to important topic.S@P500 doesn't have much more room to expand this year so broad market environment is slowely becoming less friendly to laggards like VG so what do you think will happen with lower and lower daily trading volume, earnings reports weeks away and no fundamental positive catalyst on the horizon.
I do not know but suspect that some members will become little less vocal soon.
I still believe NASDAQ is getting ready to test all time high early next year.
One solid reason from my perspective.Myself and many others with similar views would start liquidating their long position and maybe even go short because declaration of dividends delivers deadly blow to growth idea Lefar had been talking about each and every quarter.
There are many divident paying stocks with much more stable pps than VG could ever be so why take the risk?
Forgot to mention based on Yahoo key statistics $1.61 is where book value is.Couple more stagnant or declining revenue quarters on top of market correction will make VG "fairly valued".
If anybody thinks this sounds crazy they better re-examine their connection with reality.
This intermediate downtrend most likely ends soon but what happens next year only Mr.Market has a clue.
Good luck to all good and blind people.