Stock market is fascinating creation.I can't express enough gratitude and appreciation for being able to watch it and analyse incredible effect it has on human mind.I used to be addicted to it to the point where i would have my mind completely absorb by it.The only time i did not thing about stock market would be in my sleep.Actually i probably dreamed too but did not remember next morning.
I strongly believe this is the most powerful and destructive addiction for creatively thinking human mind.
You can tell by my attitude that i'm finally free.
Best wishes to you too.
Broad market risk also called systemic risk is rarely discussed on message boards.Individual stock risk is directly correlated to systemic risk so why there is virtually no topics related to the most important issues?
There is no chance of making consistent money in stocks if you do not have solid grasp of the risks involved.
"Vonage is near 3 year highs with the PPS, over the 50 dma, Over the 200 dma, all rising. WAY undervalued"
Mr.Dgroves logic: higher share price more undervalued stock is thus higher pps lower the risk of buying it.
Flat revenues,flat P/E,flat costumer base for 5 years is behind share price appreciation of 1500% during this period.I suppose using same logic VG at $20 is five times more undervalued.I only hope your golden cross has much more fuel left because i'm impatiently waiting for my cup @ handle formation.
"VG has to spend almost $40m per quarter just to stop the bleeding from losing subscribers'.
You got this wrong,they do not have to spend that money to gain new customers.
Personally as a customer i have no desire to dump VG only because they stopped advertising.
Their core residential costumer base have been stable for many years.
I'm convinced by now everybody has realized it is all about GROWTH and less about strong fundamentals.So is VG undervalued relative to which one of those factors?
Sock market is forward looking mechanism and as such it is trying to determine what a share is worth in 6-9 months in future based on current information as far as growth factor multiplied by zero,single or double digit numbers.
The share price today in my ho is being determined by combination of first two all the way to $5.4.
For some reason generally speaking shorts are not tolerated on any message boards.What's funny is that shorts are despised lot more than longs dumping their shares which is the primary reason for share price drop.
I'm not fundamental or technical speculator but constantly learning market observer.From experience i know market existence is based on contradictions but human actions are based on habits and addictions.Usually but not always technical posture predicts fundamental changes and i believe that currently share price is driven by the market focused on business side and new cost cutting minded CEO.
Lefar's era of misguided attempts to find growth in residential area is over and most shareholders are relieved he is gone.Some years ago somebody speculated that his talent was with saving companies not growing.
If you look back 5 years and compare share VG price behavior to broad market trend it looks like growth anticipation factor is present and this is why despite flat revenues i keep holding my shares.I know market can be irrational as often as rational but not for this long.On the other hand i wouldn't be surprised to see trading opportunity for shorts right after earnings report.
I keep saying but they don't believe me that earnings don't matter what matters is how market judges the report.
You committed cardinal sin by mentioning shorting..There are only handful of people on this mb you can reason with.Right now VG mb clowns are in charge.They are in unconditional love with this stock so spare your time and effort looking for common ground.I'm sure you agree with me that timing is everything as you understand the risk principle when stock share price goes up so does the risk of holding it.The people here you are dealing with have no clue what i'm talking about Good luck it's all about making money isn't it?
Board clowns are in charge again as usual after several days/weeks of bullish share price action.Springing out of hiding places deep in wood work.Every message board has it's own clowns but our clows are the most predictable bunch.Easy meal for Mr.Market.
"Sometimes investors make the right decision for all the wrong reasons".
Absolutely, so what do you do about it since it is impossible to make money consistently this way?
For me it was about learning the way my brain worked and unconditionally accepting the idea that market was not something you had to beat but learning to understand and align with.
Then you would be allowed to developed sense of being able to see subtle signals market is sending out and take advantage of law of probabilities.
Gambling is design for pleasure not for wealth accumulation.
VG share price is once again within short distance of testing 52 week high but all time high in the long term cycle sits at $5.4.In order to breach this ceilling technical momentum is not enough in my ho.To be perfectly clear i do not know what part of fundamental information is critical but i believe next coming earnings report with combination of forward guidance will be the key.Most likely stagnant revenues will not be as important since market is focused on small business side now.Image is everything sometimes so new CEO will have his first opportunity to make longer lasting impression.
It is looking more and more likely that next broad market correction is going to be related to NASDAQ attempting to breach all time ceilling resistance at 5000.
Looking back and analizing current market environment i'm tempted to say that we have finally arrived to the point where market expectations are aligned with investors expectations,understanding and right relationship with market risk. As indicated and speculated before broad market has been in the expansion stage of P/E multiples where we should start thinking and looking around for early signs of asset class bubble creation.All markets are cyclical including secular trends so this one eventually reaches it's top. Identification of asset class bubble will help us to develop risk averse mind set which is neccesary to be able to recognize warning signs of ultimate ceilling level approaching.This is the most challenging part of timing the market and i will be paying close attention to what the best market timing investment guru's are doing.
NFLX has already announced international expansion plans in Jul 2011 which was the catalyst for severe pps correction from $300 to $50.
I believe you are correct this time similar press release could have opposite effect due too share price becoming lot more attractive for value buyers.
You mean 20% of VG does exactly same thing as EGHT,right?
If this is the case then 80% of VG does other thing.
How about our negative poster's $10 "price target" this year on your beloved VG?
Or VG is trying to gewt close to and run with LVLT just like last year about this time.Trend divergence from EGHT is more pronounced by now and i think for good reason.Afterall EGHT is just niche player unlike VG so comparing the two based on fundamentals is waste of time in my ho.
99% of formations end up as just like that but i keep looking for the most powerful formation in stock market universe called cup and handle.Never happend to me in over 20 years.
We all know very well but don't want to admit, when board clowns run the show Mr.Market goes insane.When permabulls or permabears run the show Mr.Market turns the other way with exception of times when both groups are in charge then anything can happen.