Relative weakness can turn in to relative strength and vice versa as soon as majority convince themselves.The game with small tech stocks is about manipulation first and fundamentals distant second and market environment plays large role.If volatility continues i have no doubt we will see 52 week lows because that's were high trading volume can provide lot more shares for the accumulator.Low risk environment for shorts continues until earnings report.
Historically speaking correction has been overdue,however volatility serves similar purpose and that is to inject fear factor in to the market in order to postpone creation of asset class bubble so secular bull can continue without disruption.I my ho more volatility lowers chances of full blown correction of 20%.
But individual stocks do not follow general market direction for some periods of time.
I agree with YOD accumulation observation but there may be lot of weak hands accumulating too which will be purged out at 52 week lows when market goes after mechanical stop loss orders.
The topics reveal real brain behind it.If the broad market volatility continues the only squeeze he is going to hear is the sound of air leaking out for this balloon.
More often than not buying and selling areas are within hair distance away of each other. Weak hands selling and strong hands buying or weak hands buying and strong hands selling.
I think by next earnings report they will be able to bring it down to 52 week low or below in order to take mechanical stop losses.Until then shorts and manipulators operate in lower risk environment.
Actually i wanted to talk about market volatility since once in a while you have to pay attention to systemic risk.If not every day.
In my ho opinion in secular bull trend market "organizes" volatility in order to increase uncertainty as a substitute for real correction.As a matter of fact the end result is similar whether you have one serious correction or few severe dips extended through out entire year.The elevation of fear factor usually achieves the objective which is to postpone creation of assets class bubble.So as long as we get volatility there is no need for correction so 2015 promises to be another positive price appreciation year.
Finding excitement in stock market speculation is exactly what market wants you to do.As clear evidence of this look what happens when share price starts outperforming broad market.Suddenly there is lot more activity on message boards.About year ago VG price trend started showing divergence from EGHT's.This was more important than current relative strength because long term appreciation is what longs should care about most.In meantime we have had two not too exciting quarters and dumping of Lefar. Yes that's correct now i believe Lefar was asked o leave in "orderly" fashion, his ego was speared and Mr.Market bought it.
Wether VG takes of or not depends on earnings report assessment by the market not anybody else and lot of times nobody knows which detail will be the most important as far as small business activity.Residential eventually will come back in market focus and i do not believe for a second that Vonage has any intention of getting out of this business.There is absolutely no reason for it.Sooner or later people stop dumping their land lines and there will be fewer competitors left.
Stock market is fascinating creation.I can't express enough gratitude and appreciation for being able to watch it and analyse incredible effect it has on human mind.I used to be addicted to it to the point where i would have my mind completely absorb by it.The only time i did not thing about stock market would be in my sleep.Actually i probably dreamed too but did not remember next morning.
I strongly believe this is the most powerful and destructive addiction for creatively thinking human mind.
You can tell by my attitude that i'm finally free.
Best wishes to you too.
Broad market risk also called systemic risk is rarely discussed on message boards.Individual stock risk is directly correlated to systemic risk so why there is virtually no topics related to the most important issues?
There is no chance of making consistent money in stocks if you do not have solid grasp of the risks involved.
"Vonage is near 3 year highs with the PPS, over the 50 dma, Over the 200 dma, all rising. WAY undervalued"
Mr.Dgroves logic: higher share price more undervalued stock is thus higher pps lower the risk of buying it.
Flat revenues,flat P/E,flat costumer base for 5 years is behind share price appreciation of 1500% during this period.I suppose using same logic VG at $20 is five times more undervalued.I only hope your golden cross has much more fuel left because i'm impatiently waiting for my cup @ handle formation.
"VG has to spend almost $40m per quarter just to stop the bleeding from losing subscribers'.
You got this wrong,they do not have to spend that money to gain new customers.
Personally as a customer i have no desire to dump VG only because they stopped advertising.
Their core residential costumer base have been stable for many years.
I'm convinced by now everybody has realized it is all about GROWTH and less about strong fundamentals.So is VG undervalued relative to which one of those factors?
Sock market is forward looking mechanism and as such it is trying to determine what a share is worth in 6-9 months in future based on current information as far as growth factor multiplied by zero,single or double digit numbers.
The share price today in my ho is being determined by combination of first two all the way to $5.4.
For some reason generally speaking shorts are not tolerated on any message boards.What's funny is that shorts are despised lot more than longs dumping their shares which is the primary reason for share price drop.
I'm not fundamental or technical speculator but constantly learning market observer.From experience i know market existence is based on contradictions but human actions are based on habits and addictions.Usually but not always technical posture predicts fundamental changes and i believe that currently share price is driven by the market focused on business side and new cost cutting minded CEO.
Lefar's era of misguided attempts to find growth in residential area is over and most shareholders are relieved he is gone.Some years ago somebody speculated that his talent was with saving companies not growing.
If you look back 5 years and compare share VG price behavior to broad market trend it looks like growth anticipation factor is present and this is why despite flat revenues i keep holding my shares.I know market can be irrational as often as rational but not for this long.On the other hand i wouldn't be surprised to see trading opportunity for shorts right after earnings report.
I keep saying but they don't believe me that earnings don't matter what matters is how market judges the report.
You committed cardinal sin by mentioning shorting..There are only handful of people on this mb you can reason with.Right now VG mb clowns are in charge.They are in unconditional love with this stock so spare your time and effort looking for common ground.I'm sure you agree with me that timing is everything as you understand the risk principle when stock share price goes up so does the risk of holding it.The people here you are dealing with have no clue what i'm talking about Good luck it's all about making money isn't it?
Board clowns are in charge again as usual after several days/weeks of bullish share price action.Springing out of hiding places deep in wood work.Every message board has it's own clowns but our clows are the most predictable bunch.Easy meal for Mr.Market.
"Sometimes investors make the right decision for all the wrong reasons".
Absolutely, so what do you do about it since it is impossible to make money consistently this way?
For me it was about learning the way my brain worked and unconditionally accepting the idea that market was not something you had to beat but learning to understand and align with.
Then you would be allowed to developed sense of being able to see subtle signals market is sending out and take advantage of law of probabilities.
Gambling is design for pleasure not for wealth accumulation.
VG share price is once again within short distance of testing 52 week high but all time high in the long term cycle sits at $5.4.In order to breach this ceilling technical momentum is not enough in my ho.To be perfectly clear i do not know what part of fundamental information is critical but i believe next coming earnings report with combination of forward guidance will be the key.Most likely stagnant revenues will not be as important since market is focused on small business side now.Image is everything sometimes so new CEO will have his first opportunity to make longer lasting impression.
It is looking more and more likely that next broad market correction is going to be related to NASDAQ attempting to breach all time ceilling resistance at 5000.
Looking back and analizing current market environment i'm tempted to say that we have finally arrived to the point where market expectations are aligned with investors expectations,understanding and right relationship with market risk. As indicated and speculated before broad market has been in the expansion stage of P/E multiples where we should start thinking and looking around for early signs of asset class bubble creation.All markets are cyclical including secular trends so this one eventually reaches it's top. Identification of asset class bubble will help us to develop risk averse mind set which is neccesary to be able to recognize warning signs of ultimate ceilling level approaching.This is the most challenging part of timing the market and i will be paying close attention to what the best market timing investment guru's are doing.