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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jayand777 44 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Aug 31, 2005
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  • Reply to

    What a gift!!!

    by b_fr_nk 22 hours ago
    jayand777 jayand777 21 hours ago Flag

    We just better hope word didn't leak of another tranche coming off the shelf. I still cannot help but to expect this CEO to make another stupid move every time it starts to look they are turning it around.

  • Reply to

    Except for the market,

    by tracant Sep 1, 2015 7:22 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Sep 2, 2015 1:48 AM Flag

    Happy, just ignore Tabby's predictions. I have been following his posts for nearly a decade, and he has never come close to getting one right. In fact, you would have outperformed the market by multiples simply by shorting his stocks.

    In the case of Madcatz, I believe he is at least finally on the right side of the trade. But if he holds past $2 hoping for more, he will no doubt be left holding the bag when it returns to the pennies. Not to worry,he is very used to holding the bag. Ask him about NAVR, HTCH, VTSI, ANR or INVE.

  • Reply to

    As far as no recent insider buys...

    by meifud2 Aug 28, 2015 9:01 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 28, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    Eight, I agree. I think it's a big reach to see anyone buying Madcatz.

    Them trying to steal the company by taking it private would be more of a concern to me.

    An even bigger concern would be someone like Activision buying HARMONIX, not us. If ATVI sees RB4 being a legitimate sales threat to Guitar Hero, they have the resources to easily buy them. I just hope Madcatz' lawyers were smart enough to include a clause in the RB4 partnership contract to protect us and our 3-4 year revenues in that scenario. Madcatz doing the hardware alone with the Activision marketing machine and financial support behind it would be huge.

  • Reply to

    As far as no recent insider buys...

    by meifud2 Aug 28, 2015 9:01 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 28, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Coffee, the SEC rule is very simple and strict. If an insider, officer or employee is privy to material information that has not been disclosed publically, they are strictly prohibited from trading on that information. "Material" would include such things as earnings, new product announcements, new customers, lost customers, negotiations for a sale of the company or the purchase of a new entity, etc.

    Clearly an example of this would be their knowldege before the Rockband 4 announcement. Management knew it was coming, but were unable to buy stock because of that knowledge. Currently, I would think that them having specific numbers on RB4 pre-orders would be material. Even though DR stated on the call that pre-orders were strong and above RB3 numbers, he knows EXACTLY what they are, as well as the dates and plans for standalone accessories, new sku additions, etc. This publically non-disclosed info would prevent them from buying.

    BTW, it's nice to finally have Fuddy on our side of the trade after reading all his bashing the past couple years :)

  • Reply to

    Someone has been accumulating a large position

    by cliu1235 Aug 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 28, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    Royco, although these developments are good for Chippy, where I see BIG impact is for Himax.

    Himax practically owns the LCOS space. With all the upcoming product launches in 2016 (Rift, Hololens, Google Glass, etc.) and Himax going into heavyl production in q4 AND preparing another facility for additional manufacturing, the opportunity is huge. The CEO stated on the q/a two nights ago that nobody was even close to their technology for all the head mounted displays. There HAVE to be a number of players looking at how to take HIMX and own this business. And with Google already having amde an investment in HDI, I wouldn't be surprised if they have a full right to match any offer.

  • Reply to

    July Revenue

    by jamcracker25 Aug 6, 2015 3:25 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 23, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    JBW, only the Dow is in true correction territory. The other two more important indexes need a bit more pain to get there. And I hope we get it this week so the idiotic talking heads on CNBC can finally stop talking about the "much-needed, long overdue correction". Especially the S & P, as it is the most representative index of the entire market. It is only 7% off its highs.

  • That tells me there just aren't that many sellers. As word spreads about this RB4 opportunuty, new buyers are going to have a hard time building a position without driving up the price.

    Recent information from the RB Twitter feed is that standalone guitars will be available after the new year and that something is in the works for cymbals! 2016 will certainly bring a new keyboard and other surprises. RB4 will repeat RB3 as a solid 3-4 year performer.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Aug 18, 2015 12:51 AM Flag

    Micro, it's all about q3. And a small boost from q4. If RB4 is a big hit, I can see a bunch of kids buying it in January with their xmas cash/gift cards.

  • Reply to

    RB4 and GH Live Preorders

    by bwall1178 Aug 17, 2015 12:06 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 17, 2015 12:29 AM Flag

    Visited two Best Buys today. Activision is absolutely kicking our rear ends with their marketing machine. GH Live is prominently featured all over the gaming department targeting pre-orders while there is nothing for RB4. Gaming dept. clerks, however, said the customer interest appears to be right down the middle.

    RB4 has a huge two-week head start, Oct 6 vs. Oct 20. They better be ready to rock right from the first day. Clerk said they expect to sell out of the initial inventory very quickly, so Madcatz better be ready to re-stock nearly immediately. Stores will be jammed with GH after the 20th- if we are out of stock, we will lose many sales to them. I hope the longs on this board are willing to do frequent store visits throughout the holidays and especially those first two weeks. They are critical. We cannot blow that huge opportunity.

  • While it is great news that the bumbling CEO confirmed that the launch is on schedule, guided towards RB4 revenue in the current quarter and that early orders were outpacing RB3, I was even more pleased at another comment he made.

    Many on this board seem to refer to RB4 as a one-hit, one-year wonder, but previous versions of the franchise sold millions of copies over several years. And the bumbling CEO went out of his way to mention RB4 in the framework of a key driver for Madcatz over the next 3-4 years. While I certainly do not intend to hold the stock that long, if this franchise can keep the company consistently profitable and liquid for multiple years, the stock price will clearly benefit. While I will never subscribe to Uptab's ludicrous pie-in-the-sky predictions, I can easily see a company earning .15 a year with a 15 multiple garnering a stock price in the $2-3 range.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Aug 13, 2015 8:42 PM Flag

    If RB4 does turn out to be a big hit with demand outstripping supply nearer the Holidays, I hope the bumbling CEO is smart enough to direct product to retailers who agree to 'bundle" a few other popular Madcatz products. Were they to come up with a 20 unit pallet of say, 5 Tritton headsets, 5 gaming mice, 5 fight sticks and 5 whatever to use as an incentive, they could very effectively cross-sell. Each product would be priced allowing the retailer to make a nice margin. I am in retail and it is very common for our wholesalers and jobbers to ask us to add on a few other items and not just "cherry-pick" the main item we are looking to buy. We realize that everyone has to make money, and as long as they are sending me a solid product I can easily sell at a good margin, I am happy to do so to assure the delivery of the product I really want, especially when the market is tight.

  • Reply to

    No Rockband delay!!!

    by jayand777 Aug 13, 2015 4:22 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 13, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    Harmonix had very specific language in the contract. Madcatz had to have x amount (redacted) of each sku manufactured and ready to ship by specific dates. If they failed to execute, Harmonix had the right to void the agreement and/or use an additional supplier to fill the order. Probably due to past execution issues, Harmonix made very sure to protect its investment. And with the overall weakness in the MCZ business, it allowed them to focus their manufacturing on the Rockband products.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Aug 13, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    My worst fear was a launch delay. That is now off the table.

    The doom and gloomers can focus on this quarter which we knew would be terrible. I will focus on the next FOUR quarters, including the one that will comp against this $13M disaster.

    Into full manufacturing of RB4 is music to my ears. Gentlemen, start your engines!

  • jayand777 jayand777 Aug 9, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    Sean, the 60 days is the approximate total of days after the buyback announcement. 30 from that day until earnings, and another "phantom" 30 after earnings from Frick and Frack. Mid-September. Utterly ridiculous. Please, Mr. Shannon, drill down on that point tomorrow.

    We really need to have that buyback ready to go asap because chances are they guide weaker for q3 tomorrow. Seems everyone else in the space has.

    They also need to be asked about the Typhoon. Nearly 4M homes and businesses lost power and we need to know if there was/is any business disruption.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Aug 7, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Hey, Roy. Yes, this cannot be anything but good news, especially since they just guided to nearly break-even revenues coming very shortly. They would not need this cash for anything but a deeper production run.

    Having said that, using Roth makes me squeamish. Just seems like their buyers are often vultures who quickly flip or even find a way to profit by shorting. I have not read the K yet to see what restrictions were put in place, but I hope they were tight so we don't see any funny games. Since the book runner is likely to know what the needs for the money was, it never seems fair that they or their share buyers should be able to trade off that info.

    Himax call seems to have gone very well; let's hope for the same with IMOS next week.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Aug 7, 2015 1:07 AM Flag

    Come on, Oil. The chips have to be paid for whether they are made in house or fabbed out. The end buyer such as Apple or LG are going to get much better terms from PXLW. So PXLW contracts the work out, pays for the chips, delivers them to the end user, then gets paid itself in 30-90 days, but likely books them as revenue when shipped per SEC revenue recognition rules.

    Number of shares and price will likely be out in the morning, but most Roth deals are at about a 10% price discount. The S3 was filed last August and declared effective last September with a max of $50M. Let's hope for no more than about 5M shares at $5, or about $25M.

  • Truly a shame that so many investors believed these inept managers as they continued to push out design wins and break-even quarter after quarter. All that remains is to order the plywood and board up the place. This call will sound like a funeral...

  • Reply to

    Chipbond vs Chipmos valuation

    by sublimesubprime Aug 3, 2015 8:10 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Aug 4, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    Turturo, I really hope one of the analysts on the call presses them on this unnecessary buyback delay.

    Perhaps another reason for last night's weakness is concern about a disruption of business from the approaching Super Typhoon expected to hit Taiwan friday/saturday. I would think they have a lot of experience dealing with these frequent storms, but this could be a big one, although it is predicted to weaken slightly.

  • Did anyone see the news today on NTP? Namtai, a Chinese company formally in the tech space trading on the NYSE. They coverted to a real estate play a couple years back. Today they did two things. First, they announced earnings. Second, they announced a tender offer to buy back 15M of their shares at a 10% premium to their stock price. And guess what? It commences TODAY and expires in a month. Of course, the stock immediately rallied 10% to the offering price.

    Management explained that they felt their stock was undervalued and misunderstood and decided to show their faith. They moved QUICKLY and DECISIVELY and FEARLESSLY. Imagine that.

  • Reply to

    New Board Member

    by duffydan30 Jul 30, 2015 5:20 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jul 30, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    Has your uncle given you any indication how RB4 pre-orders are doing?

IMOS
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