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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jayand777 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2015 3:19 PM Member since: Aug 31, 2005
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  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 29, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Adler???? Heck, EVERYONE who held the stock on February 5 had shares worth over $2.40. How do you make all of them happy? No way anybody pays even CLOSE to that amount in a buyout.

  • Reply to

    Exceedingly low volume on this news.

    by turn_turn_quasar Apr 21, 2015 9:49 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Apr 22, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    INVE. Last week. Only missed that one by 30%. HTCH has been a dog with fleas for years, and OIS is still a just a vision from a company that has a worse track record of execution than Madcatz. You are the king of the dogs.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 22, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Cat, Willis has very deep ties to Becker/Drapkin, the m/a guys. He has sat on a few of the same boards, including some like Tuesday Morning where there was B/D money invested. He was very clearly brought in by them to run Navarre when B/D took a big investment and orchestrated the plan to merge with Speed. The shots have been called from Dallas now for many years.

    Sure looks evident that some deal is imminent here; will be interesting to see who it is and what they pay. My guess is still about 30% above the .56 shelf price.

  • Reply to

    Exceedingly low volume on this news.

    by turn_turn_quasar Apr 21, 2015 9:49 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Apr 22, 2015 3:08 AM Flag

    $3 by Christmas, Tabby? Jist like HTCH would be $12 by now instead of below $3? Just like last week's prediction that INVN would be $15 by last Friday while today it trades in the 10's? Like those? You have made more incorrect price predictions than ANY poster in the history of these boards. Please just stop.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 20, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Perhaps because they have $100M in debt, no profits, and zero prospects for profits anytime before 2017, if then. Or because their annual interest expense of nearly $9M is 20% of their annual operating expense. Or because they have lost some key customers. Or because they fumbled the ball during their most important quarter. Or because they continue to hide behind "adjusted ebitda". Or because yet another dilutive offering is likely. Or because...

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 17, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Jim, you must be nervous about your investment to be up so early today! I might be a a pain in your rear end, but I the cage match is always a good one! I respect you and have for years, but you held this one too long, old buddy. But if I had your your money, I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it. Buy some HIMX and double your money in 9 months...

  • Reply to

    Time Window Larger Than You Might Think?

    by jsmigit Apr 16, 2015 9:37 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Apr 17, 2015 1:28 AM Flag

    Js, it is just a matter of time until guidance is lowered yet again, and that will not go over well with their lenders. They are currently at $160-175M for the current fiscal year which began 2 weeks ago. Normalized operating expenses are running about $7.5m a quarter, plus interest of 8.5% mimimum on $100M is at least $2M a quarter. They need $40M a quarter in revenues at 25% margins just to cover overhead. And they are now entering their two worst quarters of the year. They do this every year- they provide optimistic guidance, then lower it during the year as revenues fail to materialize. And as they report each quarter, every metric is labeled as "adjusted", or non-gaap. They do this to hide the clear fact that they just cannot turn a profit. Ever. The 4th quarter will be reported soon, and will likely be yet another multi-million $ loss. Which is why they needed this very costly shelf money. Strong companies with bright prospects do not "explore strategic options including a sale of the company".

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 16, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Jim, I have to side with Cat here.

    I understand you have to talk your book here, but anyone with your experience HAS to know this company will NEVER bank a true profit based on the present operational structure. They have hidden behind "adjusted ebitda" for years and will continue to do so until they are gone or sold. You can do a proforma ten different ways and never find a path to true net profits. Distribution was a no-margin albatross, but its volume paid for the overhead of the company. What is left is a marginal company with a poor reputation and much higher overhead than can be sustained. This shelf is highly dilutive but was necessary because the company is bleeding cash by the day with no ability to borrow more.They have a dismal record of over-paying for acquisitions and went from nealy debt free to very highly leveraged yet again. They will never be able to service their $100m in debt and will need to continue to raise money while destroying their shareholders.

    Very best scenario now is a sale of the company at a 30% premium over the .56 cent offering price. And only a fool would pay that much with a hundred million in debt that would have to be taken on by the acquirer. Zisk saw the handwriting on the wall and bailed. You should have done the same years ago like myself,
    O Rourke , Tommy, Uptab and so many others did.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 1, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Looks like it was an April Fool's joke...

  • jayand777 jayand777 Mar 27, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    Yes, Hopeful, and Madcatz knows it must not drop the ball. In the contract with Harmonix there are specific numbers (redacted) of each sku that must be ready for sale by specific (redacted) dates. While Madcatz has exclusive rights, this contract allows Harmonix to source with another supplier of its choice if Madcatz doesn't have the mutually agreed quantity ready on time. The stakes are high for Madcatz, but so is the opportunity. They must execute this time.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Mar 27, 2015 1:47 AM Flag

    Madcatz is still in the running for co-publishing rights for the game, which would create an additional revenue stream. Harmonix has until mid-April to stay with Madactz or choose another publishing partner.

    It is very possible that Harmonix or a manufacturing partner will assist with the financing of producing the hardware. These details had to have been worked out when Madcatz was chosen, given their tight finances.

    While old equipment will still be compatible, articles seem to indicate that the new guiars and drums will blow away the last series. I spoke to two young employees at Best Buy last weekend and they said there is already big hype about the release this fall. They expect big demand and both said they would be buying it themselves.

    Personally, I am very unhappy with this raw dilution deal. With virtually no debt and the track record of RB3, a solid management team should have been able to secure a $4M loan. Having said that, I expect RB4 to be a big hit. By big, I mean at least $50M in additional revenues between October and March. And that is without any publishing cut. I still view that as all gravy and unlikely. I know much bigger, ridiculous revenue projections will be thrown around as we get closer, but I believe that is a very reasonable estimate for year 1 of what will likely be a 3-year life cycle.

  • You have spent the last several days bragging about your significant share buys. You lead the cheerleading around here. I am interested in your thoughts on this latest example of DR's poor leadership.

  • She too stated that they had no plans to use the shelf. Yes, RB hadn't yet been announced, but they knew it was coming. A strong CFO would have been able to secure financing rather than dilute shares significantly 20% below market. And what about her comment that an offering would need shareholder approval? Did they just barely stay below that threshold?

  • Reply to

    Calling all attorneys, sign me up

    by uptabdowntab Mar 25, 2015 9:37 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Mar 25, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Tabby, refer to my :cautiously optimistic" post from the other day. In it, I point out the many Rockband issues, including financing. Also, refer to my post from a month ago where I stated that it was way past time to dump Wells Fargo for another lender who could realize the RB4 opportunity and work with the company.

    Bottom line is this board has been completely over-run with cheerleading despite the fact that we have a worthless CEO has failed to execute time and again.

  • Reply to

    Where's faux.leather?

    by emoryhowie Mar 20, 2015 3:26 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Mar 23, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Tabby, that poster isn't worth reading, but his term "cautiously long" fits my sentiment perfectly. I know you cannot comprehend that, but if you were to take off the cheerleader costume for once, you might understand. You fall in love with all your stocks and throw around wild price and earnings projections which NEVER come to fruition. Pity the poor fools who have followed your board advice on many stocks. If you would like, I can show a bunch of such projections from the Speed Commerce board where you said Speed was better than Amazon, a $10 stock and blah, blah blah. Or the Hutchinson board, where by NOW the stock would be $12. I can keep going for hours if you wish.

    I AM lond Madcatz. And i certainly AM cautious. Cautious because this CEO has failed to execute so many times previously. And there are still a great many Rockband hurdles to overcome, primarily with financing, shelf placement, ad placements, promotion, and manufacturing sufficient amounts of merchandise. For crying out loud, they have been out of stock for WEEKS on a popular $20 game controller. Sales are being lost every day. Yet we are supposed to be confident that they can execute a $100m opportunity?

    Any Madcatz investor who is NOT cautious should not be investing in the stock market. Put your pom-poms away and look at this objectively for once.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Mar 19, 2015 1:21 AM Flag

    Has anyone researched which lenders Karen used in her previous cfo roles? I believe the time is ripe to replace Wells Fargo, and hopefully those discussions are underway. Madcatz needs a more flexible lender/partner for this massive growth opportunity, and perhaps Karen has a good relationship with one.

  • Reply to

    delisting

    by ssdmmf Mar 18, 2015 8:16 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Mar 19, 2015 1:08 AM Flag

    ssd, the only reason any of us have held this long is hoping for a better outcome from the Delaware supreme court. The delisting doesn't change that. A favorable ruling would likely result in a quick exit from bankruptcy and a re-listing on Nasdaq. And a settlement with PIP is always a possibility after the legal maneuvers are completed. Or we could lose the rest of the money that we still have in this pos. SIGAQ for now...

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Mar 13, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    .Turtle Beach. Stock price $2.32. Losing money. 26% margins. $36M in debt. Leader in headsets.

    Madcatz. Stock Pice .49 cents. Breaking even. 28% margins. No debt. Rockband 4 on the way.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Mar 11, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Turtle Beach. Stock price $2.32. Losing money. 26% margins. $36M in debt. Leader in headsets.

    Madcatz. Stock Pice .49 cents. Breaking even. 28% margins. No debt. RB4 on the way.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Mar 11, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    Micro, dial it back a little, It's way too early to start foolish holiday sales projections and the like. You have been the master cheerleader in creating unrealistic sales expectations for way too long. Do we really want to go down that road yet again?

    Yes, Darren said RB4 won't add much in incremental costs (like r & d), but NO holiday promotional item, with or without direct competition, can expect to garner 30% margins for the vendor. Once you re-enter the big box arena and add in markdowns to get in the Sunday sales circulars, those type of margns are gone. Guaranteed. But so what? 21 to 24% margins for a hot item with heavy sales volume is still huge. I share your enthusiam for the POTENTIAL of RB4, but you should have learned by now not to be throwing around ridiculous assumptions with your previous track record.

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