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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jayand777 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 1, 2015 12:45 AM Member since: Aug 31, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Darren the Disregarded

    by hopeful200 May 31, 2015 3:01 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 1, 2015 12:45 AM Flag

    Hope, there are two very valid reasons.

    First, that DR has ZERO credibility due to his many past failures and consistent lack of execution.

    Second, anyone with any math skills can figure out that even $80M in RB revenues with 20% margins will require $64M to manufacture the product. At present, Madcatz has nowhere near that kind of cash on hand OR credit line to pull that off. So until they directly address that issue, the stock goes nowhere. That is the ONLY question that needs asked at the upcoming conference call, yet I have no faith that any of the lame analysts will ask it.

  • Reply to

    from last pr :

    by azrastulic May 20, 2015 1:50 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 May 20, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    Mary, or Squeezie, or whoever you are, these guys are all clueless. Anybody buying individual stocks ought to know about quiet periods, insider windows, etc.

    What blows me away is that 4 insiders bought the day the last lockup period ended after earnings. If memory serves, those shares were at about a buck ninety. Which means they would be dying to buy now. But can't.

    Easy fix. Announce earnings early, even if unaudited. They have always used that extra 30 days at year end, but many companies do not. And with these paltry sales, there is no need. It's not as if this is a multi-national company with complicated earnings and multiple currency translation issues.

    It is also possible that due to the phantom "negotiations" or "offers" they are investigating, they are still not able to buy shares. But any company wanting to assure the market and its customers that it was going to survive would throw out SOME news. An early earnings announcement would be a good way to start. But since they have not done anything in 3 years to show they care about shareholders, why start now?

  • jayand777 by jayand777 May 19, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    might be an attempt to divert attention from the fact that natural gas prices have risen 20% over the last few weeks. Followed by summer with record industrial nat gas usage expected, followed by fall and winter...

  • jayand777 jayand777 May 18, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    Mary, I can predict with great certainty that any SPDC shares purchased above $2 are underwater forever. $1-2 not looking good. But any shares bought from about .60 on down have a decent chance of being sold at a profit, even WITHOUT a buyout. If, VERY BIG IF, they can meet their revenue guidance and grow the business as they have projected, they have a shot.

  • jayand777 jayand777 May 14, 2015 1:27 AM Flag

    Mary, far be it from me to disagree as I have spoken out here for years about their use of "adjusted ebitda" to deflect their lack of any profits, BUT...

    In the very unlikely event that they DID hit their revenue guidance for the next fiscal year which just begun, they COULD earn a profit. Basically adjusted ebitda just adds stock-based compensation and transaction and transition costs to the interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Of those six categories, only one is REAL significant, interest at about $11M a year. I suppose there could also be upcoming impairment charges that they would add, but an actual profit is not impossible if they bring the revenues.

    All a moot point if a buyout occurs as expected. Today's shelf filing by PFSW is very relevant, I would presume. My earlier prediction was that a buyout would occur at a 30% premium to the .56 recent offering. I will stay with that.

  • Reply to

    scary stock price = scary managemnt

    by emoryhowie May 11, 2015 12:16 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 May 12, 2015 4:32 AM Flag

    Tabby, your thumbs-down grow by the month. Guess the masses have finally figured out what a cheerleading pumper you are. Anyone taking your advice on these boards the past few years has lost their a**. Yet you are never wrong. Just "early". A year, three, five...

    A year ago you were pumping Speed Commerce with a $20 target; that they were out-operating Amazon. Today? .29 cents. Now you claim you sold, but apparently you just slithered away quietly, never telling all those that you pumped to for years that you had dumped. Nice.

  • jayand777 jayand777 May 12, 2015 4:19 AM Flag

    Chicken, you are 100% correct. The stock languishes because everyone EXPECTS Madcatz to fail to execute. They announced RB two months before GH, yet GH is already taking pre-orders at Best Buy while RB is warning of parts shortages already. Madcatz better figure this out quick or they will lose the gig. The agreement with Harmonix lays out very specific minimum tagets for each product which have to be ready for sale by specific dates. If they fail to deliver, HM can pull the deal and find another partner on both publishing AND hardware. First priority is to get Wells fargo to increase their credit line. Without that they are doomed. But with pre-orders in hand, WF might be a listener, but on very favorable terms for THEM.

  • jayand777 jayand777 May 11, 2015 12:34 AM Flag

    Guitar Hero already takes a lead with artwork and pre-orders being accepted in best buy circular today.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 29, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Adler???? Heck, EVERYONE who held the stock on February 5 had shares worth over $2.40. How do you make all of them happy? No way anybody pays even CLOSE to that amount in a buyout.

  • Reply to

    Exceedingly low volume on this news.

    by turn_turn_quasar Apr 21, 2015 9:49 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Apr 22, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    INVE. Last week. Only missed that one by 30%. HTCH has been a dog with fleas for years, and OIS is still a just a vision from a company that has a worse track record of execution than Madcatz. You are the king of the dogs.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 22, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Cat, Willis has very deep ties to Becker/Drapkin, the m/a guys. He has sat on a few of the same boards, including some like Tuesday Morning where there was B/D money invested. He was very clearly brought in by them to run Navarre when B/D took a big investment and orchestrated the plan to merge with Speed. The shots have been called from Dallas now for many years.

    Sure looks evident that some deal is imminent here; will be interesting to see who it is and what they pay. My guess is still about 30% above the .56 shelf price.

  • Reply to

    Exceedingly low volume on this news.

    by turn_turn_quasar Apr 21, 2015 9:49 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Apr 22, 2015 3:08 AM Flag

    $3 by Christmas, Tabby? Jist like HTCH would be $12 by now instead of below $3? Just like last week's prediction that INVN would be $15 by last Friday while today it trades in the 10's? Like those? You have made more incorrect price predictions than ANY poster in the history of these boards. Please just stop.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 20, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Perhaps because they have $100M in debt, no profits, and zero prospects for profits anytime before 2017, if then. Or because their annual interest expense of nearly $9M is 20% of their annual operating expense. Or because they have lost some key customers. Or because they fumbled the ball during their most important quarter. Or because they continue to hide behind "adjusted ebitda". Or because yet another dilutive offering is likely. Or because...

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 17, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Jim, you must be nervous about your investment to be up so early today! I might be a a pain in your rear end, but I the cage match is always a good one! I respect you and have for years, but you held this one too long, old buddy. But if I had your your money, I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it. Buy some HIMX and double your money in 9 months...

  • Reply to

    Time Window Larger Than You Might Think?

    by jsmigit Apr 16, 2015 9:37 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Apr 17, 2015 1:28 AM Flag

    Js, it is just a matter of time until guidance is lowered yet again, and that will not go over well with their lenders. They are currently at $160-175M for the current fiscal year which began 2 weeks ago. Normalized operating expenses are running about $7.5m a quarter, plus interest of 8.5% mimimum on $100M is at least $2M a quarter. They need $40M a quarter in revenues at 25% margins just to cover overhead. And they are now entering their two worst quarters of the year. They do this every year- they provide optimistic guidance, then lower it during the year as revenues fail to materialize. And as they report each quarter, every metric is labeled as "adjusted", or non-gaap. They do this to hide the clear fact that they just cannot turn a profit. Ever. The 4th quarter will be reported soon, and will likely be yet another multi-million $ loss. Which is why they needed this very costly shelf money. Strong companies with bright prospects do not "explore strategic options including a sale of the company".

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 16, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Jim, I have to side with Cat here.

    I understand you have to talk your book here, but anyone with your experience HAS to know this company will NEVER bank a true profit based on the present operational structure. They have hidden behind "adjusted ebitda" for years and will continue to do so until they are gone or sold. You can do a proforma ten different ways and never find a path to true net profits. Distribution was a no-margin albatross, but its volume paid for the overhead of the company. What is left is a marginal company with a poor reputation and much higher overhead than can be sustained. This shelf is highly dilutive but was necessary because the company is bleeding cash by the day with no ability to borrow more.They have a dismal record of over-paying for acquisitions and went from nealy debt free to very highly leveraged yet again. They will never be able to service their $100m in debt and will need to continue to raise money while destroying their shareholders.

    Very best scenario now is a sale of the company at a 30% premium over the .56 cent offering price. And only a fool would pay that much with a hundred million in debt that would have to be taken on by the acquirer. Zisk saw the handwriting on the wall and bailed. You should have done the same years ago like myself,
    O Rourke , Tommy, Uptab and so many others did.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Apr 1, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Looks like it was an April Fool's joke...

  • jayand777 jayand777 Mar 27, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    Yes, Hopeful, and Madcatz knows it must not drop the ball. In the contract with Harmonix there are specific numbers (redacted) of each sku that must be ready for sale by specific (redacted) dates. While Madcatz has exclusive rights, this contract allows Harmonix to source with another supplier of its choice if Madcatz doesn't have the mutually agreed quantity ready on time. The stakes are high for Madcatz, but so is the opportunity. They must execute this time.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Mar 27, 2015 1:47 AM Flag

    Madcatz is still in the running for co-publishing rights for the game, which would create an additional revenue stream. Harmonix has until mid-April to stay with Madactz or choose another publishing partner.

    It is very possible that Harmonix or a manufacturing partner will assist with the financing of producing the hardware. These details had to have been worked out when Madcatz was chosen, given their tight finances.

    While old equipment will still be compatible, articles seem to indicate that the new guiars and drums will blow away the last series. I spoke to two young employees at Best Buy last weekend and they said there is already big hype about the release this fall. They expect big demand and both said they would be buying it themselves.

    Personally, I am very unhappy with this raw dilution deal. With virtually no debt and the track record of RB3, a solid management team should have been able to secure a $4M loan. Having said that, I expect RB4 to be a big hit. By big, I mean at least $50M in additional revenues between October and March. And that is without any publishing cut. I still view that as all gravy and unlikely. I know much bigger, ridiculous revenue projections will be thrown around as we get closer, but I believe that is a very reasonable estimate for year 1 of what will likely be a 3-year life cycle.

  • You have spent the last several days bragging about your significant share buys. You lead the cheerleading around here. I am interested in your thoughts on this latest example of DR's poor leadership.

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