His last post last night was a joke. He says he was right, that charges were the difference. He also said if he had any long shares(advice to others), he would be selling them this morning. Sure he wants selling- it's the only way out of his $25k put position...
On the 9th you were spinning on about an "exhaustion gap" at $29 which was a lock to close within a week. I am getting exhausted reading all these long-winded wrong predictions.
Liz, management will no doubt visit with Baupost when they are in the U.S. the next two weeks. That will be their opportunity to assure its biggest shareholder that IMOS investors will finally be at the front of the line after several deals where they got the short end of the stick. Klarman doesn't appear to be the foot-stomping Carl Icahn type, but I hope he has it in him to explain to SJ/SK that "shareholder value" are not just words, but action.
HG, they would not initiate a new buyback without announcing it in advance. They are very cautious about things like that.
The strength is much more likely a result of last week's Cowen conference where they gave a very bullish outlook on forward business, plus news articles out of Taiwan that they are gaining more top tier customers. That, and that most longs are just unwilling to sell anything, creating an order imbalance. Longs have waited many years for this. The ADR conversion is just up the home stretch, and it is likely that Chipmos will finally reach a fair valuation after several years of being misunderstood and under-appreciated for the huge turnaround and cash-flow beast it has become. I have zero doubt that IMOS will surpass $30. In fact, $35 is a very reasonable possibility by the end of March when the conversion is finalized. Coupled with that outlook and large tax implications next April for anyone selling prior to January, why would anyone sell?
I hate to bring up a sore subject, but my take on the buyback is different from what I am reading on the board. The only thing I have read is that per the cc, the buyback is dead.
What I heard is management saying that the 'original' buyback program was canceled on the advice of counsel at the time of the Thailin purchase. BUT they would revisit the issue with the board (now that the listing process is complete- my words not theirs). I know they move at a snail's pace on everything, but I don't think that they have discarded the buyback idea. Like another poster said yesterday, I believe a buyback is good at any price. If the stock is headed beyond $30, and most of us believe it is within 18 months, there is nothing wrong with buying $25 shares.
One other thing. Anyone can pull up a one-year chart of Micron. It is a thing of beauty. And what you see all along the way are many very healthy price dips before resuming higher. They are painful at times, but they are very necessary, pullbacks and consolidations. Those who have the stomach to hold strong are almost always rewarded. Chipmos is in the middle of a $180M quarter, to be followed by an even stronger one. Anyone who doesn't see this stock hitting new highs over the next several months shouldn't be in the market.
It seems that many times these "change of control" policies don't result in transactions, but this may be the one. An Apple or LG or Skyworth would be foolish not to purchase the company at this early stage and low stock price if only to keep the technology to themselves. Pixelworks is in a sweet spot right now with strong patents, ramping sales and no debt. I would put the probability of a buyout in 2014 as very likely.
Hopeful, I can't get out of my head the ceo's comment a few quarters back that Madcatz could not justify remaining a public company based on its sales volume and market cap. I think the decision was made right then to bring in the new cfo with a m/a background to either find a buyer or merger partner, or to take it private. I believe we are getting close to that conclusion.
Roy, my luck with Himax has been with out of the money calls. Much less invested and stock was prone to big moves. Google investment was made last July 22 giving Google one year to buy another big piece of the display unit. Less than 2 1/2 months left. I'm betting they take the remaining 8% stake during that timeframe. Bought some January 7's today near the lows.
Chou, although I was not on your list, I will offer a Silly-approved pick.
Radio Shack, ticker RSH. Strong, growing company with little competition and virtually no debt. Ignore all the negative hype including its fights with its bankers. Great chart, and destined to be one of the great retailers in America...
Marnis, I disagree with your assessment of Himax. I bekieve the drop from $16 to $6 fully prices in NO additional business from Google. The rest of their business will earn at least .40 in 2015, giving the company a very reasonable 15 multiple. And their LCOS business will gain them significant top-tier customers besides Google. I think it is likely Google is still their customer and when that is become known the stock will run again. But even if not, the stock is very fairly valued at present.
While I have a small Himax position, I am much more excited about Pixelworks, PXLW. Their "Google", or rumored customer, is Apple, and just like Himax, that "rumor" is just icing on the cake. Their new Iris technology will have top-tier tech companies lined up at the door. Their tech brings 4D-like picture quality for all devices from a 5.5 inch smartphone to 80 inch televisions. It is best-in-class and makes them a strong buyout candidiate. It ran from $5 to $10 on news of an Apple alliance whereby they worked on a project together to co-develop a possible future project, then back to $5/6 and now back to almost $8. Their guidance reflects a significant ramp in 2H revenues, likely for a specific product (Apple?) that has not yet been announced.
Caff, I could not agree with your more on Russ Fischer's antics today. Doesn't matter if he is right OR wrong- he jumps back and forth far too recklessly. It has made for some great reading on SA today. My personal estimate is for sales of $4.05B and non-GAAP earnings of .74 cents. Yet with the run MU has had, that might not even be enough to satisfy the street. If they take it down, I will be ready to buy, just like I did earlier today with Chippy.
Tabby is totally, positively delusional to post that HTCH will be profitable in the present quarter (July-Sept). Nor will they be profitable the quarter following. Anyone following his path or buying with those expectations deserves to lose the money invested. That prediction is ignorant and absurd.
Marnis, the annual meeting for the U.S. shares is Aug 29. Proxies have been sent out asking for votes on directors. If they hope to put something about the conversion up for shareholder approval at that meeting, they are just about out of time. With their track record of moving everything at a snail's pace, I just don't see them having a proposal ready until Sept/Oct. Then more delays while they get approval from both shareholder bases and regulators in both countries. I agree IMOS will begin trading in tandem with 8150 once proposal details are made public, but I just don't see that happening anytime soon. It's really a shame. And with our luck, the announcement will coincide with the sharp market pullback everyone has been predicting.
By the way, I have never been able to figure out the love with Amazon. Sell everything at cost, lose money year after year, and watch your stock price soar, all the while making excuse after excuse that you are investing deeply in technology and acquisitions so you can sell even MORE products at or below cost. Unbelievable...
Caff and others, Yahoo earnings had Chipbond scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday, but I can't find anything to show they did. I am more curious to their q2 outlook than their actual results. Has anyone seen anything
Roundy's did well to get $3.5M per store for these marginal stores. Inventory should bring another 700k or so per store, so this is a decent cash generator for debt paydown and Mariano growth.
Having said all that, I can't help but to speculate that the timing is very suspect as to take the focus off another lousy earnings report tonight...
Sean, part of yesterday's U.S. bump might have been Russell buying. Chipmos officially becomes part of the index at the close today. Hopefully more buying today and potentially some strange trades at the close.