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Speed Commerce, Inc. Message Board

jayand777 46 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2014 5:27 PM Member since: Aug 31, 2005
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  • Reply to

    If you guys were wondering....

    by foggyswamp Jul 25, 2014 4:07 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jul 25, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Marnis, the annual meeting for the U.S. shares is Aug 29. Proxies have been sent out asking for votes on directors. If they hope to put something about the conversion up for shareholder approval at that meeting, they are just about out of time. With their track record of moving everything at a snail's pace, I just don't see them having a proposal ready until Sept/Oct. Then more delays while they get approval from both shareholder bases and regulators in both countries. I agree IMOS will begin trading in tandem with 8150 once proposal details are made public, but I just don't see that happening anytime soon. It's really a shame. And with our luck, the announcement will coincide with the sharp market pullback everyone has been predicting.

    By the way, I have never been able to figure out the love with Amazon. Sell everything at cost, lose money year after year, and watch your stock price soar, all the while making excuse after excuse that you are investing deeply in technology and acquisitions so you can sell even MORE products at or below cost. Unbelievable...

  • My complaint forever was an antiquated, money-losing distribution division losing sales and losing money quarter after quarter. Now that is someone else's problem. What is left is a pure-play ecommerce unit that will grow revenues for the forseeable future. Two numbers stand out. 20% margins and 10% operating expenses. If they can hold these numbers or even improve them, that leaves 10% ebitda. From their FY '15 guidance, it will be even better than that. It is probably not a reach to predict a true NET PROFIT in the present September quarter. I'm beginning to see the math that Adler must have seen when he bought a big postion in the mid $3's. Still don't understand why Becker dumped though.

  • Reply to

    This deal is good enough to take us to $100

    by drmlk3 Jul 10, 2014 3:21 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jul 10, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    They never are. Immersion keeps these deals confidential due for competitive reasons and so as to not affect other ongoing negotiations. But the recent trend is for a blend of both lump-sum and per-unit royalties, which will likely be significant with this customer.

    My concern for a long time is that not enough falls to the bottom line. But with total operating expenses of $11-12M per quarter, as volumes grow, more of this new revenue will become net profit.

  • Reply to

    OT: PXLW

    by memoryxpert Jun 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jul 10, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Bob, I don't see much risk with Immersion. Their technology is becoming must-have in everything from phones to tablets to cars to appliances to slot machines and on and on. They own all the key patents in the industry. One by one, companies are signing license agreements. How is this list of current licensees: Sony, Microsoft, Samsung, LG, Nokia, Logitech, Atmel, Plus two new very recent Chinese cell phone heavyweights. Not to mention the companies supplying touchscreens to key automotive companies and medical simulators. No debt, 98% gross margins, consistent net earnings. Apple will add haptics to their phones and tablets THIS year for the first time. Even if they choose to go it alone without Immersion, they will make haptics a must-have in every electronics product sold. Finally, when you virtually lock up an industry, you become a very inviting buyout candidate. Immersion is headed higher. Immersion is still flying below the radar, much like Chipmos was and to an extent still is.

  • Reply to

    Interesting day

    by uptabdowntab Jul 7, 2014 5:43 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jul 8, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Tabby is totally, positively delusional to post that HTCH will be profitable in the present quarter (July-Sept). Nor will they be profitable the quarter following. Anyone following his path or buying with those expectations deserves to lose the money invested. That prediction is ignorant and absurd.

  • Reply to

    Powers that be

    by sean777007 Jun 27, 2014 7:49 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 27, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    Sean, part of yesterday's U.S. bump might have been Russell buying. Chipmos officially becomes part of the index at the close today. Hopefully more buying today and potentially some strange trades at the close.

  • Reply to

    Hey there bargainhunter, haven't you

    by uptabdowntab Jun 19, 2014 12:48 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 25, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Tabby isn't 'early", he is delusional with his stocks. He is a textbook case of one of who falls in love with his picks and is unable to see objectively. He will hold a pos for years waiting and waiting. 3 analysts have an estimate of a loss of .22 next quarter, yet Tabby says they will be PROFITABLE in the quarter. Absolutely delusional. Very likely a new 52-week low this week. Absolutely terrible management.

  • Reply to

    Couponing VERY heavily...

    by jayand777 Jun 24, 2014 12:07 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 24, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    Forgot to mention also the current all you can eat shrimp promotion. Another margin killer. Look at Red Lobster today. Looks like the CEO has chosen margin pressures over empty dining rooms. Lesser of two evils?

  • Reply to

    Any comments from Russ Fischer?

    by mister_one_zero Jun 24, 2014 9:15 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 24, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    His last post last night was a joke. He says he was right, that charges were the difference. He also said if he had any long shares(advice to others), he would be selling them this morning. Sure he wants selling- it's the only way out of his $25k put position...

  • Have received many coupons lately, both in Val Pak and Sunday papers. High value coupons. Margin killers. Waiter told me tonight nearly 40% of his tables using coupons. Not a good strategy unless you are trying to divert attention to same-store traffic growth. Look for lousy margins next month.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Jun 23, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    Caff, I could not agree with your more on Russ Fischer's antics today. Doesn't matter if he is right OR wrong- he jumps back and forth far too recklessly. It has made for some great reading on SA today. My personal estimate is for sales of $4.05B and non-GAAP earnings of .74 cents. Yet with the run MU has had, that might not even be enough to satisfy the street. If they take it down, I will be ready to buy, just like I did earlier today with Chippy.

  • Reply to

    chipmos is invited by Goldman Sachs Asia

    by lizheng19672002 Jun 18, 2014 10:30 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 19, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    buy buy, I am not at all confident that we will have a conversion proposal in August. What I heard is that it would be discussed at a board meeting in May likely followed by ANOTHER meeting in August. Management describes this step as very complicated which gives them an excuse to delay this until fall. What you have read are very optimistic predictions on the board not based in reality, even one that we would have received the proposal LAST month! How anyone who has watched this management team bumble and stumble repeatedly through buybacks and this listing process could have ANY confidence of a quick resolution is nothing less than ridiculous.

    I am still betting on not receiving ADR's until q1 of next year and specific details until October. Having said that, I think it will be worth our wait. These gentlemen do an outstanding job of running the company, but they have disappointed me time and again when it comes to actions to create shareholder value otherwise.

  • Reply to

    Piper Jaffray just raised target

    by astrog8tr Jun 18, 2014 6:48 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 18, 2014 7:32 AM Flag

    You have been "out" for significant periods while this stock has quadrupled from $8 in 15 months. I don't get this trader mentality on a rocketship like Micron. The money is made by identifying a stock like this, loading up, and holding on tight for the big ride. Not to mention, your posts always seem to be a subtle bash with strong underlying negative tones. I guess I would be negative too if I had missed out on as many gains as these braniac traders have...

  • Reply to

    Comments on the Big 3 in brief IMO

    by marnis123 Jun 18, 2014 6:08 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 18, 2014 7:13 AM Flag

    "Project to co-develop a future project". Too early in the morning. To develop a future PRODUCT. A "chip" that would improve picture quality as smartphones and iPads are being used more and more for video.

    In any event, I would look to buy more PXLW on a pullback with an 18-month time horizon. Options only go to November at present. The recent run might have been a little too far too fast.

  • Reply to

    Comments on the Big 3 in brief IMO

    by marnis123 Jun 18, 2014 6:08 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 18, 2014 6:54 AM Flag

    Marnis, I disagree with your assessment of Himax. I bekieve the drop from $16 to $6 fully prices in NO additional business from Google. The rest of their business will earn at least .40 in 2015, giving the company a very reasonable 15 multiple. And their LCOS business will gain them significant top-tier customers besides Google. I think it is likely Google is still their customer and when that is become known the stock will run again. But even if not, the stock is very fairly valued at present.

    While I have a small Himax position, I am much more excited about Pixelworks, PXLW. Their "Google", or rumored customer, is Apple, and just like Himax, that "rumor" is just icing on the cake. Their new Iris technology will have top-tier tech companies lined up at the door. Their tech brings 4D-like picture quality for all devices from a 5.5 inch smartphone to 80 inch televisions. It is best-in-class and makes them a strong buyout candidiate. It ran from $5 to $10 on news of an Apple alliance whereby they worked on a project together to co-develop a possible future project, then back to $5/6 and now back to almost $8. Their guidance reflects a significant ramp in 2H revenues, likely for a specific product (Apple?) that has not yet been announced.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Jun 18, 2014 12:24 AM Flag

    On the 9th you were spinning on about an "exhaustion gap" at $29 which was a lock to close within a week. I am getting exhausted reading all these long-winded wrong predictions.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Jun 17, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    Chipmos has made the list of companies being added to the Global index. Should be good for some buying this month by the index funds.

  • One week ago, she wrote:

    "also, today's price action was an "exhaustion" gap- the steep advance of the price of a 50% advance in under 2 months & the gap coming at the end of such a huge advance "suggested" today's gap was this kind- & the "high volume" of today "confirmed" that it WAS this kind of a gap! these kind of gaps always get filled! & i posted info in a post tonight from a website about gaps- & that info stated these gaps tend to fill within 1 week! that means going down to $29.50s within 1 week- not climbing forever higher as you've suggested in your post."

    Exhaustion gap? The only ting exhausting me are her repeated wrong calls...

  • Reply to

    Losses again....

    by jayand777 Jun 16, 2014 9:48 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 16, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Well, you succeeded in chasing me off the board. I will NEVER again have dialogue with someone who could actually state that a companies' valuation will have nothing to do with its earnings. How did that theory work out in the 1999 tech bubble? Unbelieveable. Stunning. Beyond belief. See ya. The cheerleaders have the board back all to themselves. I'll divert my attention back to my Micron investment.

  • Reply to

    Losses again....

    by jayand777 Jun 16, 2014 9:48 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jun 16, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    "Your fascination with dilution is stupid."

    Now that is the most idiotic thing I have EVER read on one of these boards.

    Just say you are right. Let's say in two years Speed actually turns a net profit of $7M dollars. At 70M shares outstanding due to the dilution and sweetheart deals, the earning per share will be 10 cents for the year. That will be the metric used to value the stock with some weight given to the growth rate and balance sheet.

    But without the dilution, if there were only 40M shares out, that same $7M in net profit would equate to .18 cents per share. Which might result in a stock price nearly DOUBLE the share price versus earnings of .10.

    Dilution is critical to the future of the stock price.

    I will listen to the call this week and run some numbers and report back.

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