was hoping the volume would continue all week and finish back above .55 on black friday.
That puts you iin the same range as Norwalkron and the two analysts, about $80M in total q3 sales. That should be good for about .10 in earnings with another proftable quarter ahead in q4. And with huge percentage-up revenues for the next several quarters, as the comps are dreadful.
Jags, I think Jim's crystal ball has a crack in it. If I had as many shares as you claim to have I would be on the phone with the boys in Dallas, at corporate or otherwise, until ONE of them gave me some answers. It is absolutely UNCONSCIONABLE for them to skip the conference call and leave their shareholders on the dark like this. My limit for blind faith passed about three months ago.
Rather, no chance. Three reasons.
1. Very poor sales of higher-margin NON RB4 products such as gaming mice, steering wheels, fight sticks.
2. Becoming co-PUBLISHER of the game disc brings with it lower overall margins.
3. Significant sales of the xbox adaptor being sold at NO PROFIT.
Add it all up, and you get 23% margins IF YOU ARE LUCKY.
Ron, I agree. In fact, i would like to see them sell off the Tritton brand. The buyer would be acquiring a quality brand with a strong presence in Gamestop and a market share top 3 in many overseas countries. I would think Madcatz could get $20M for it and put the cash to much better uses. And if they keep it instead, then they need at least one big game tie-in each year to spur domestic sales and get shelf space at brick and mortar.
Black Friday a week away. On the positive, it looks like a few store ads and promotions, especially the Target exclusive.
But where is the marketing? I have yet to see any advertisements for RB4 THE PRODUCT. Guitar Hero is all over tv and print. Harmonix' part of this deal was marketing. I just don't see the push necessary to achieve record sales. Your diehards bought it at launch. The next wave has to be newbies, and with the limited retail shelf space (none at Wal mart and outshelved by Guitar hero at Best Buy 5 to 1), that only comes through marketing. Is anyone seeing anything out there that I'm not seeing? They need to get this in front of the kids quickly.
Could Willis, Stein and Partners be involved in this mess?
WSP is a Chicago-based private equity group. They have bought shares or bought out many companies. Our illustrius CEO was once a managing partner. His family name remains. Big, multi-billion $ outfit.
They just sold their remaining stake in Roundy's, a midwest grocery company, to Kroger. They bought out Roundy's, then private, many years ago, bled it dry, and took it public. Then they shrewdly sold off their public shares in very favorable transactions. Typical private equity stuff.
How about this for size? They buy about 80% of SPDC, keeping the Dallas connection as their partners. They pay .35 a share for the remaining shares, a big premium over the recent share price. They work out a deal with Garrison where they pay $50M to pay off half the debt and re-finance the remaining 50% at more favorable terms. Total price about $80M out of pocket, and the remaining debt is paid from the business cash flows. Total price including debt less than 1.2 times sales. Shareholders get the shaft, everyone else wins. All those future profits the CEO has promised go to the new ownership group. Including the biggest quarter of the year just underway, and all the proposed new miltary business.
High price? Nothing compared to what Kroger just paid for Roundy's, a total of about $800M including debt. Roundy's operates about 150 grocery stores in Milwaukee, Madison and Chicago, all markets without a Kroger presence. The company loses money and has rapidly deteriorating same store sales. Stock traded recently at $2 after Cramer pounded the table at $8.
Even if it is not WSP, this proposed deal would not be hard to find a private equity outfit to take. Even PFSW could do it with their existing shelf if they assumed half the debt.
You are delusional. The after hours trades at .14 should give you a sense of which way this is going. The damage could be limited by the very obvious sign that a sale of the company is expected in the next four weeks. And if not, I don't see any options short of bankruptcy to hold off the creditors.
The REAL question is, does Jags keep buying? He says he loves to gamble, so it will be interesting if he digs deeper or folds his hand.
The quarter was brutal. And the Ohio expenses show they didn't learn from their mistakes last winter. But they can't blame it on Zisk this time. No update on guidance and no conference call only add gasoline to the burning embers. The total disaster of the former Navarre heads into the final chapter.
Very clearly, certain individuals in Texas are privy to what is in the process of happening. I wsih I knew what they know. Gentlemen (and Mary), place your bets...
Was Roundy's under-funded pension obligations part of the debt that Kroger assumed?
If so, do they pay Mass Mutual those funds to bring the pension fund to full funding, or does Kroger take over the management of the pensions?
According to a story on Reddit, RB4 was the 9th best seller among all video games in units and 4th best in dollars in October. Numbers did not include digital, only retail.
Guitar Hero was 11th and 6th, very good for an October 20 release date.
You don't put out a press release on Target because you don't want to send the customers of your OTHER customers to Target. Gamestop and Meijer would be furious if you put out a pr recommending Target. We already have no product at Wal mart and virtually none at Best Buy; we don't need any LESS inventory in brick and mortar.
Also, I would expect no more than 10 per store of the Red bundles at Target. Madcatz and Harmonix can admittedly not even keep up with demand on the regular bundles, much less manufacture enough of those for Target. It is very common for Best Buy and others to put "while 5 per store last" or "at least 5 per store". I would be happy with 10 per store with such success that Target does it again on the last weekend before Xmas. That would also give time for additional manufacturing.
$80M is still the number for total q3 revenues. Do not let this number rise to unrealistic levels. The forces at work against us will already do everything in their power to create the illusion of a "miss" when results are announced in February. Lord knows, they don't need our assistance.
It means what it usually means with this company- more delays. The Shanghai restart/ramp is being pushed back due to lighter demand. We all know by now that they are incable of doing more than one thing at a time. But given the choice, i would make the conversion the priority. And I want a definitive proposal announced THIS year with a finished conversion completed by March 31.
Not again! Sean, my Momma once taught me that where there's smoke, there just might be fire, but she never heard of IMOS or the two guys running it. For the sake of your 5 grand, I hope THIS time its different...
X, twice I have left messages for Karen, and twice I got callbacks from a worthless rep at IR. Really not sure why they are even paying them...
Nor,the analyst projection is $81.8M, so you are right in line with them. Let's keep the expectations right there-Realistic. As we get closer to earnings we will see the shorts try to inflate that number to create the illusion of a "miss". Your number is very reasonable. If the stock price remains in the 40's, you can add a couple pennies to your profit number due to warrant expense declining. One concern might be the margin hit from this black friday $199 deal at Target. I would expect that sales will be big from that, and Madcatz is likely participating in the margin hit.
i really do not expect to see the share count increase. Their cash flows are increasing, and the loan structure should prevent them from having to sell any shares, especially with the higher borrowing limit extended until Feb 29.
Jimmy, did you roll over this morning and drink from the wrong cup? Apparently you took Uptab's kool-aid off the nightstand by mistake. $100M in cash a year from now? Well, at least that should put to bed all this idiotic talk about the company needing to access the ATM shares.In fact, the best thing they could do in February when announcing record earnings is to announce that they have CANCELLED the shelf entirely.
Our mystery buyer is......................Harmonix!!
We can assume Darren and Harmonix CEO have developed a good relationship over many years. We know Darren wants to go private and avoid nuisance shareholders. We can assume Harmonix would love ALL the profits from Rockband. We can assume both CEO's know they can unload Tritton, Saitek and others piecemeal for a decent price. Darren and Karen get to stay on in the newly formed buyout.
Only problem is financing for private company Harmonix. Oh, and how do they buy it cheap.Well, for starters, bring up the ATM on the call. That will crush the price. Then, avoid taking caller questions to avoid having to share optimistic RB4 sales trends. Garrison Capital will likely finance the deal for Harmonix after seeing the results of year 1 of the RB4 franchise. Roth Capital is only a phone call away if they need a co-lender.
Put it all together, avoid any and all press releases throughout the holidays, and Boom- announce the buyout at a 30% premium of Madcatz stock in late January just before earnings are due. Perfect plan to steal the company and screw the shareholders yet again.
Mahavvy, there is no disrespect here, there is simply NO INTEREST. Very few companies allow questions from the general public; it is too risky. That leaves analysts and big institutional investors. And Madcatz has neither. That's what happens when you disappoint the street again and again, giving rosy expectations that never quite materialize. Resulting in a stock price in the pennies for multiple years. Resulting in no coverage and no interest from big money.
Jags, don't forget your boy Willis and his shares. He was put there at the outset by Becker and Company, so he is surely part of the master plan. I can't wait to read Jeff Zisk's book on all of this some day.
Lack of an earnings call (never before this late), lack of an annual meeting, lack of any news whatsoever except repeated amendments to the creditors, all leads to serious doubts.
Clearly Willis and company (he IS still there, right?) consider their shareholders nothing but a nuisance not to be bothered with.
Did PFSW ever get their shelf approved by the SEC? Because I had them as the lead horse to do a buyout several months back. Now, it looks more like a shady inside job of some sorts with the Dallas good old boys network conspiring to steal the company for pennies. All they gotta find is a creative way to screw the lenders.