Micro, we have had some spirited debates over the past year. I was clearly the first to spot the deterioration of the Best Buy relationship. My main argument has never changed- this CEO has been absolutely abysmal at EXECUTION. Time after time, year after year and new product after new product, he has failed to execute. And this blown holiday season is yet more proof. This critical quarter will be another disaster- likely below $30M.
I have seen your posts change dramatically over the past few months. You have gone from being one of the fab 5 blind pumpers (Hopeful, Norwalk, Emory, Uptab) to a realist. The killer instinct situation is nothing but another example of the absolute incompetence of the management team at Madcatz....
Nice job, Sean. I sold the same strike price earlier today for even less, but like you, I did real well on them. I agree with the others that determining the exit point is a real challenge. I know we've taken some past hits on IMOS options, but overall it's been real good. And the MU options have been unreal. My thanks also to Caff, Marnis, Jaret and all the other MU bulls.
Turt, you have perfectly articulated why AMD is no longer a $40 stock. But at less than $4 bucks and huge new contracts, I think it qualifies as a spec play with a good chance for a one-year double or better. Incidentally, they get about $100 per chip for the game platforms, at 15-17% margins.
Great thread from back in June. This is the thread where Caff advises that he has purchased MU options in one of the best posts ever.
On the topic of other stocks, I'm doing some serious dd on AMD. They have been pounded for years by Intel, but they really seem to have turned it around. They have turned profitable and expect to remain so throughout 2014 thanks in part to securing the chip win for both the Playstation4 and XBox 1, beating out Intel and Nvidiia. Stock has traded down to the 3's and finally appears headed for a rebound. Options are available and the premiums aren't too bad.
Johnboy, I believe the polls have closed. But for some odd reason, there seem to be some hanging chads leading away from Caff's yacht. Perhaps someone can find a minute to do a recap of the valid entries. Happy Thanksgiving to all in the best bord on Yahoo...
I agree, Uptab- no way they exceed $35M and that is likely a reach. And I really believe that makes my point about how poorly the company has executed. Most companies in this space spending 9 months ramping up for the 3 months that REALLY matter. They do that by manufacturing the RIGHT amount of the RIGHT products, marketing the products, and setting up shelf and ad space with key retailers. Above all, they make sure to take full advantage of any gifts thrown their way. And two HUGE new game consoles was an opportunity that could not be blown. But was.
The hand-me-down concept is also a joke. Why? because if the company truly believed that and knew HOW to execute, they would have the stores and web sites fully stocked and ready to go with previous-generation products. And $149 Warheads, with each one selling at a LOSS, is NOT an example of that strategy.
To pin hopes on 2014 and 2015 is to blindly put faith in a management team that has truly not performed for several years now. I have no confidence to do that. Because this management team has fumbled every single snap since Rockband.
Has, I sincerely do not wish you or anyone else "ill fortune".
Our disagreement came several months ago when you could find nothing wrong with Himax at higher levels, even before they were selected as the Glass supplier. You came to this board and tried to spin Himax as the better buy and I disagreed based on several reasons and financial metrics.
In fact, I still own some Himax, and am troubled by the rising short interest. I have seen too many instances where a large increase in short shares is followed by a concentrated effort to drive the price down, many times due to the spread of lies, rumors and speculation. The fact that sites such as Motley Fool and Seeking Alpha let just about anyone post anything without substantiation of facts makes it all the easier for these shorts to perpetrate their scam.
Over a two-year period, I think we will do very well with Himax, once Glass revenues commence and other customers are revealed. In the meantime, however, I think IMOS and MU will outperfporm. Sorry to offend you- that was not my intention.
Bashman, you're just like all the rest. Instead of responding to my very real criticism of the company, you accuse me of being a short. Please, just answer this one question:
How can a gaming peripheral company not be prepared to benefit from the two biggest game platform launches in history? How could they have not had products ready to co-incide with the launch? How could they have not had tie-ins such as headphone bundles available? Their competitors are all over it. Because they were focused on two OTHER initiatives which could have been put on the back-burner? Two initiatives which they now admit will not have any significant revenues for QUARTERS???
How does a well-run company miss this once in a decade opportunity? You won't answer it, so I will. They DON'T.
Tabby, I am here to make sure there is balance. This board is infested with pom-pom waving pipe-dreamers who have fallen in love with a stock that has no right to be loved. They post menaingless Amazon rankings (proof: see last xmas season), and pie-in-the sky revenue projections which have no basis in fact.
I post here to protect the newbies in this shark-infested pool, from the pumpers who make excuse after excuse for an absolutely dismally-run company. I tried shorting a stock once in my life, about ten years ago, Best Buy, and got my #$%$ handed to me. Never again.
It cannot be denied- two new game consoles in one month that were known about for six months should have been an absolute home run for any company in the peripheral industry. Instead this company absolutely BLEW the opportunity by focusing instead on two very marginal initiatives. The pumpers on this board refuse to call out management for this abysmal failure. So I will.
Interesting debate back here in early August. I disagreed with the pumpers and argued that the company had significant execution issues that had lasted for years and were likely continue until new management was installed. The board pumpers made every excuse in the book.
Fast forward almost 4 months. Stock price is down 20%. Company announced an absolutuley abysmal quarter. Company announced MOJO is not ready for prime time. Company announced that Gamesmart would not contribute any meaningful revenues for some time. Company guided to several more quarters of lousy results. Company had no real explanation for why they have nearly zero retail presence in key US retailers.
Bottom line? More lack of execution. Most shocking is this: Madcatz, a gaming peripheral company, diverted its time, focus, and finances to two initiatives, MOJO and Gamesmart, while it should have been solely focused on having products and tie-ins with the two biggest game launches in history. Instead of preparing for a HUGE six months of revenues to coincide with the game launches, they were spending their resources on two products that would have no significant revenues any time in the near future. Then they have the audacity to guide to more disappointing quarters due to the game console transition. DUE TO IT? Not BENEFITING FROM IT? This would be like a 5-month summer ice cream stand business closing in July to go on a family vacation!
This is all just common sense. Retail 101. This entire management team should be shown the door. Missing this critical oppportunity should be Chapter 1 in the next book written on the biggest management disasters in the history of retail.
Meanwhile, short interest in HIMX has TRIPLED to 10M shares.
Please don't try to spin this as any kind of good news, Has. Posters on this board have been telling you for months that you were riding the wrong horse...
Johnboy, I'm going to go with $19.88. I think it will surpass $20, but fall back a bit at year-end.
I also see Micron at about $22 by then, so MU wins the 2013 leg of the 3-year race that I think will see both stocks rise above $30.
Silly, you just keep showing your ignorance. The 4th quarter weakness will be expected, as it has already been guided towards. And Chipmos does not usually report year-end results until mid-March. The stock will be reacting instead to the impending Taiwan listing, new Taiwan analyst coverage, q1 revenues back in growth mode, and possible new Micron business.
Bob, where do you get this idea? I would think that depleting the Bermuda cash (stock buyback and/or dividend) would be a REQUIREMENT before the move to the big board/ADR transfer.
In any event, our boys have once again found a way to frustrate its loyal shareholders with additional delays on its long-awaited and long overdue share buyback. I guess this is why you don't buy options...
Notes from very bullish conference:
Enterprise SSD a big target and opportunity.
Embedded multi-chip a big opportunuty due to Elpida.
Capex of 2.6B to 3.2B in fy2014 after being about 300M below projections in fy13.
Some fy13 was pushed back to 14.
Capex in fy15 likely to be a bit less, but too early to guide.
2014 industry nand supply growth should match demand.
2014 industry dram supply growth will be at least 10 points below demand.
3D tech does not fundamentally change bit growth equation; current 16 nanometer costs less and net is better. 3D more likely in 2015 as cost equation will get better, 3D performance will be better.
Growing free cash flow priority to reduce debt with dilution management important as in recent deal.
My opinion here. Micron stock goes above $20 within 30 days and above $30 by next September.