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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

jayand777 201 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2016 10:19 AM Member since: Aug 31, 2005
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  • Reply to

    8150 buyback

    by conversionworrier Feb 4, 2016 7:42 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Feb 4, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Jam, based on the Taiwan daily trading volumes last August, it would appear they finished the buyback in about 3 weeks and it had a very negligible impact on the NT price. Hopefully this time will be different with all the other catalysts in place, especially an improving business cycle.

  • Reply to

    8150 buyback

    by conversionworrier Feb 4, 2016 7:42 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Feb 4, 2016 8:25 AM Flag

    Sean, this is good news!! I thought we were led to believe they could NOT do any buybacks until the Tsinghua deal closed. If NT goes above $40, our conversion price goes into the low to mid $20's. And if they are unable to buy all 15M shares, hopefully they will authorize another buyback with a higher cap. Although I agree it is smaller than I would have liked, at least it is something. And every share cancelled increases earnings.

    P.S. Himax announced a great quarter and guidance this morning. Chipmos needs to get a piece of this VR/AR business.

  • Reply to

    IMOS share price discussion

    by imos_is_garbage Feb 2, 2016 1:47 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Feb 3, 2016 12:24 PM Flag

    Sean, my calculator shows the EXAS drop from $30 to $6 as even worse than SGOC. Rough year or so for ALL of us, I might say.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Feb 2, 2016 1:07 AM Flag

    And things only get worse for HEAR tomorrow. They announced today a new sale of shares to raise badly needed cash. They should announce the price in the next few days, and it will likely be below market. They are headed for sub-$1.

  • Reply to

    I expect

    by carpinus1 Jan 29, 2016 8:42 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Feb 2, 2016 12:57 AM Flag

    Uptab has been right? Right????????? In which decade? The one where he said HTCH was headed for break-even in 2014? Or the one where he said it was headed for a $12 stock price? Or the one where he said OIS would take Penn and the shareholders to the riches?

  • jayand777 jayand777 Jan 28, 2016 1:32 AM Flag

    Micro, yours is the first credible post predicting strong numbers in 2016 from RB4. Most everybody else acts as if it was a one-Xmas story. The very real truth is that the console transition is still very early. It is widely predicted that the installed base of PS4 and Xbox1 is only now at about 50% penetration of the previous versions. That would explain why Harmonix is so actively updating the software and music selection- they know RB4 still has at least two more big years of sales ahead as more and more of the new consoles are sold. Of course, Harmonix hopes a big percentage of those RB4 sales are digital downloads, as they get 100% of those, but even those buyers will want new instruments.

    We need some really good analyst questions on the upcoming call. If they can get Darren to say that 2016 CALENDAR year sales will exceed 2015, we will be off to the races.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 6:46 PM Flag

    Why couldn't 8150 do a big buyback soon and instead of retiring the shares keep them as treasury shares? That would keep Tsinghua at the 25% Taiwan limit.

    Has anyone expressed their dismay today to either management or their worthless i.r. guy?

  • Reply to

    It's a good news

    by cliu1235 Jan 21, 2016 11:59 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 6:24 PM Flag

    When Chipmos did the 12.2% Thailin deal, they used a 20 day average closing price. This entire 2 year ordeal has been a never ending conspiracy to steal the company from the IMOS shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder activism and lawsuit

    by yksrivss Jan 21, 2016 5:12 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    My guess is Caff has already been assured by SJ/SK that a massive buyback of 8150 shares will be announced after the upcoming shareholder meeting.

    That would cause 8150 to rise swiftly, and bring with it the IMOS share price and in addition a better deal for us. A rise in price of $30 to $40 in 8150 would, in effect, give us a 33% better deal, or mid to high 20's instead of $19.77.

    The big holders would not be voting in favor of this #$%$ deal unless they were assured that the 8150 price would be rising, either through a big buyback or rapidly improving business conditions, or both.

  • Reply to

    how is the stock DOWN???

    by kapy15 Jan 21, 2016 9:35 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 10:04 AM Flag

    Yes, Buy, but that doesn't give someone that is fed up the option of selling today for $19.77. In effect, the cash portion of the deal forces one to be "held hostage" for another 7-8 months to get the full value of the deal if 8150 does not rise.

  • Reply to

    how is the stock DOWN???

    by kapy15 Jan 21, 2016 9:35 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    It will go through? So much for the theory spouted on this board by you for years that if we got an unfavorable deal, we would just vote it down.

    Clearly Caff and other large holders were privy to the details of this #$%$ deal and already gave management their assurance that they would vote in favor.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder activism and lawsuit

    by yksrivss Jan 21, 2016 5:12 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    Come on, Caff. They had TWO YEARS to get this done and you give them a pass because the deal "just happened" to get finalized during the worst month in the market since 2007???

    Quit being SJ's lapdog and call a spade a spade- IMOS shareholders got screwed.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 6:51 AM Flag

    The more I think about this, the angrier I get. They drag their feet on this for two-plus years and determine the price based on a stock price that has been pummeled just recently? It's almost like their whole strategy was to screw the Bermuda shareholders from the start. There is NO WAY this deal will close at these terms. A better offer will come in, and SJ/SK will regret this lowball offer when they lose control of their company.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder activism and lawsuit

    by yksrivss Jan 21, 2016 5:12 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 21, 2016 6:30 AM Flag

    Bermuda shareholders need to fight to retain their 58% control and find another buyer who will pay a fair price for the company. Many recent chip company sales (involving Atmel, Cypress, Anadigics, etc) have turned into bidding wars. This deal cannot close as structured.

    One could also surmise that IMOS stock is now capped at $19.77 for the next several months. Expect a flurry of shareholder lawsuit requests in the coming days. Shame on you, SJ/SK.

  • On behalf of any newbies that bought shares based on Jim's postings, I apologize on his behalf. Clearly he was above coming on the board to admit he was wrong. Just like Uptab, they pump and then quietly slither away when things go against them. I hope he was successful in whatever his motives truly were.

  • jayand777 jayand777 Jan 12, 2016 1:38 AM Flag

    Very clearly Madcatz is busy having SOMETHING being manufactured at the present time.

    We are assuming there was about $50M in RB4 sales shipped in September and October. That cash has been received by Madcatz by now. So why would they need further credit extended from the lenders for January and February? Only for additional manufacturing os something other than RB4. Saitek? Hotas? Something else not yet announced? Whatever it is, hopefully it bodes well for q4 and the next fiscal year beginning in April.

  • jayand777 by jayand777 Jan 11, 2016 10:16 AM Flag

    Ron, yes you have remained one of the few "sane" posters. I think we can agree the RB4 portion of the "specialty controller" segment was about $24m in q2. The CFO said they matched that in October. The we got the sales lull. Your assumption is that they then sold another $24m in Nov/Dec. Sounds realistic, if not even a tad low. Like you, my worry is that legacy products were disastrous. They were out of stock on many items for weeks at a time. Apparently all their focus and cash was producing more RB4.

    Note to those expecting higher overall margins: Clearly the best-selling non-RB4 product of the holiday season was the Tritton Katana headset . $20 to $30 headsets are margin KILLERS.

    Note to those expecting magical balance sheet appreciation in q4: You DO realize that net earnings of $7 million in q3 does not allow THAT much magic, right? The cash line grows larger to offset the inventory line going smaller, but only the net profit actually "grows" the asset total.

  • Reply to

    Uncertainty surrounding Samsung renewal.

    by qing_ma2000 Jan 9, 2016 10:17 AM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 11, 2016 1:13 AM Flag

    Just what they need- yet ANOTHER high priced VP. Overhead is already so bloated that they will never earn a decent net profit. A company this size should have no more than about $9m in total quarterly operating expenses. Yet they guided to $15M for the December quarter. With total company revenues expected to be $14M!!! Viegas truly does not get it.

  • Reply to

    Analyst Estimate - My guess

    by jjshooter05 Jan 10, 2016 7:14 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 11, 2016 1:04 AM Flag

    Shooter, I believe you are in the ballpark, but I still believe everyone is too high on revenues. A good chunk of RB4 was already booked in q2, followed by a well known soft-sales period after launch until late November. VG Chartz cannot be trusted as a reliable source. I really believe total company revenues will be closer to $80M than $90M, and I am cautious about margins due to the Target promotion.

  • Reply to

    wow, how long will this continue to go down

    by tlounsb2000 Jan 6, 2016 3:54 PM
    jayand777 jayand777 Jan 7, 2016 1:41 AM Flag

    The stock is still significantly over priced. Growth is only about 10%, and GAAP earnings are only about .25 a year. Overhead is obscene, and Vic just hired yet ANOTHER high paid VP. He just doesn't get it. After all these years, they should be printing money.

SIGA
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