Meanwhile, short interest in HIMX has TRIPLED to 10M shares.
Please don't try to spin this as any kind of good news, Has. Posters on this board have been telling you for months that you were riding the wrong horse...
Johnboy, I'm going to go with $19.88. I think it will surpass $20, but fall back a bit at year-end.
I also see Micron at about $22 by then, so MU wins the 2013 leg of the 3-year race that I think will see both stocks rise above $30.
Silly, you just keep showing your ignorance. The 4th quarter weakness will be expected, as it has already been guided towards. And Chipmos does not usually report year-end results until mid-March. The stock will be reacting instead to the impending Taiwan listing, new Taiwan analyst coverage, q1 revenues back in growth mode, and possible new Micron business.
Bob, where do you get this idea? I would think that depleting the Bermuda cash (stock buyback and/or dividend) would be a REQUIREMENT before the move to the big board/ADR transfer.
In any event, our boys have once again found a way to frustrate its loyal shareholders with additional delays on its long-awaited and long overdue share buyback. I guess this is why you don't buy options...
Notes from very bullish conference:
Enterprise SSD a big target and opportunity.
Embedded multi-chip a big opportunuty due to Elpida.
Capex of 2.6B to 3.2B in fy2014 after being about 300M below projections in fy13.
Some fy13 was pushed back to 14.
Capex in fy15 likely to be a bit less, but too early to guide.
2014 industry nand supply growth should match demand.
2014 industry dram supply growth will be at least 10 points below demand.
3D tech does not fundamentally change bit growth equation; current 16 nanometer costs less and net is better. 3D more likely in 2015 as cost equation will get better, 3D performance will be better.
Growing free cash flow priority to reduce debt with dilution management important as in recent deal.
My opinion here. Micron stock goes above $20 within 30 days and above $30 by next September.
Very bullish. Notes:
Expects DRAM supplies to remain tight throughout first half of 2014.
No new capacity has come on the market to replace Hynix product.
Micron continues to convert dram to nand despite dram shortages.
New gaming platforms a big opportunity.
Joint ventures with Inoterra and Intel are unique and very lucrative.
35% of Inoterra profits go to micron. And they are growing.
Single digit tax structure for the forseeable future.
More in a bit.
And historically Micron has always reported before Christmas. These results will be phenomenal, The window of opportunity to purchase sub-$20 shares is getting tighter by the day,
Does anyone know the method under which Sony pays royalties? If it's per-unit, any speculation as to what each PS4 might bring? 25 cents? 10 million units would add up to a lot of revenue in the March quarter.
Thanks for the clarification, Marnis. When you mentioned buying double-digit shares I was afraid you had graduated from the Silly School of Investing and dug deep for 15 more shares. Just keep repeating -"a buy at 8, a hold at 12, a sell at 16....."
I too purchased some March calls on the dip to the 15's. Good luck to all on Monday. After so many previous ball-drops, I truly hope management steps up and provides detail on the Thailin shares and their own stock buyback. I also want to hear that the application to the big board will occur this month so the 6-month clock can start ticking.
P.S. As for earnings and guidance, I'll go with .47 in earnings and down 2-4% for q4 guidance.
Torry, you wrote on 9/24:
"The stock is only 89 cents. Pretty low price still and $4 going up. This looks like a no brainer."
Then, on Oct 4, you posted:
"Buy more MCZ at 0.82. INUV first batch buy at $1.42. Who else is in?"
Finally, Oct 9, you posted:
"Foggyswamp Sardonicwanker, I just loaded up on MCZ in high 60 cent range. INUV is rock solid even after huge run up. Very bullish. MU working nicly. Still hold 1/2 IMOS."
Now, you want to say you never recommended MCZ??? Go away for good, loser.
Since Sardonicperv and Torrygenius came here to pump Madcatz at .84, it has fallen to .47. Nice job, boys. Have any more great stock picks for us?
I will only speak for myself, but I think these numbers are another in a long line of disappointments. For over a year now, management has spoken of growth opportunities and strong business, but as of yet, that has not shown up in the revenue numbers. To be down 4% from the quarter a year ago is a disgrace. And nobody in the industry is talking about anything but a slowdown in the current q4. I remain hopeful that things will improve, but so far the execution is lacking. Management has been successful in generating significant profits and cash flows from the current revenue levels, but they have been unable as of late to improve revenues, and that is disappointing. Having said all that, I still believe the stock is undervalued based on p/e and other metrics. I just hope they execute the buyback quickly and aggressively to take advantage of this weakness.
Still see no way they hit the $19-21M "adjusted ebitda" guidance. What will the excuse be when they have to eventually lower the guidance or miss the number? They are half-way through the fiscal year and haven't hit $7M yet.
Still cannot locate a bank that has deposit slips for "adjusted ebitda".
Physical distribution of goods to big box retailers still makes up 70% of all revenues. Revenues that keep declining and revenues without any profits whatsoever.
Bottom line is another loss. "adjusted ebitda" is a fancy way of saying "we cannot report any true net earnings once again, but look at what we WOULD have made if not for all these pesky stock options and expenses".
Not impressed. Again. Make some REAL profits and maybe I'll start to be impressed.
Great MF article today.
Basic summary is that the new CEO and his cronies have run the company right into the ground. Author says when the new CEO was hired, same store sales were still positive. New CEO, as they all do, decided to "change" the company with his great new ideas, a brilliant strategy, and a new management team built from all his buddies at past jobs.. And almost from that very day, sales have imploded. Author says that while management blames all its problems on the economy and previous management blunders, many of its competitors have flourished. How long until the board wises up and cleans house? Are they going to wait until all the cash is wiped away and customers have abandoned RT for its competitors? Because both of those scenarios are well underway.