The prospectus said that the warrants and common will be separated when issued. I assume they WILL start trading when they are separated as are the WS warrants...We'll see.
Just did the calculations...the existing warrants are trading at a 50 volatility. So the new options, at a 50 volatility, will be worth between .30 and .40. So there is little to be gained by buying the common stock and selling these warrants. The actual play here would be to just buy the new warrants at around .30 and hope the stock goes over 1.09 in five years.....Probably what I will do if I can buy them around .30. Management has to keep the share count low--via reverse splits--to actually profit when/if a drug gets approved and a value can be determined. If there were a billion shares outstanding--there were--then a $500 million valuation would mean .50 a share.....I think they're screwed.
Be interesting to see where the new warrants are priced...the WS warrants are around .20. If I owned the stock here I would actually be looking to sell my stock and buy the .79 warrants. A reverse split would also reverse split the warrants. I would have a 5 year option on the stock at .79 cents and little downside risk owning the common stock. Of course at .75 there is also little risk owning the stock. So either the WS warrants have to go down or the new warrants have to be priced around .30. I guess we'll see in about a week once the warrants are trading.
No. New share count immediately goes to 92+20=112m. Potential dilution will then be existing 42m warrants and new 20m warrants. Yes..CVM will receive the exercise price of the warrant. Existing warrants are exercisable from .52 to 3.00 and I do not know the breakdown of that. New warrants are exercisable immediately at .79. So impossible to guess when new warrant holders will exercise their options and income will be realized by company. My guess is that all these holders are in to for the homerun ball rather than the small profits above .79. I guess is if you are knowledgeable about their science(which I am not) then this is a lottery ticket much like all other small biotechs. And yes, dilution is a natural fundraising for these companies. My only discomfort here is that they have already done a 1-10 reverse split which didn;t work to keep the stock above $1. Without that split there would be almost a billion shares outstanding. I have already probably lost money in this one over the years and have gotten a little wiser I think. So for now, I will probably stay away from this one.
warrants=35m shares at avg 1.72
warrants=6.7m at 3.00 avg
New warrants=20m at .79
New total share count 112m a 23% dilution
Outstanding warrants now=20m at .79, 35m at avg 1.72, 6.7m at 3
Total new share count between now and 3/share=174 million up from 92m...So about a 50% dilution if stock ever rallies.
The AEZS warrant situation was so complicated it took a forensic accountant to do the math and post on Sa---a website I sincerely distrust and avoid. However his analysis was correct and he was the only one outside or even inside the company that understand the new financial structure of the company and potential dilution. I doubt even the officers understood the structure that the underwriters created--it was so dilutive and crippling financially especially when a reverse split was
going to happen anyway to reduce the float and regain compliance. I will do the math on this one.
Does anyone know the details of the secondary. Especially the composition of the warrants. I just was involved in a secondary offering for AEZS where deep in the offering was the disclosure that there would be a,b, and c class warrants that would effectively double the outstanding shares of the company and people who bought the offering would in fact get free shares through the warrants. Once this came out on SA the stock went from 1.00 to .27 in a few days. Don't want to get caught again in this.
Will be 180m shares outstanding soon so .29 a share cash. Discount their burn rate and the stock may be worth .15-.20 cents after the dilution.. Then a 30 for 1 reverse split will get the stock to 6.00 where it will probably go back down..
The stock trades horribly. Only slightly, teeny tiny positive is that the volume seems to be drying up a little. Are there new warrants with an exercise price of .52 ????
There is no surprise that this is happening during this latest downturn in drilling. Cyclical. what I like about this time around is that all these companies have seen these downturns before, and are reacting immediately by cutting costs and restructuring debt at historically low interest rates. Good old Texans are strapping down until oil rebounds. They have learned how to do this.Good business practice in a cyclical market. At this price, I think it's definitely worth a shot.
How can you call a guy right when he rode the stock down from $7.00 or higher to .70 when he pulled the sell trigger ?
Idiot analyst has been wrong for 3 years and now goes to a sell at .70. Why would he be right now after being so wrong all these years?