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Paragon Offshore plc Message Board

jayjayvee 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 10:55 AM Member since: Mar 11, 1998
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  • jayjayvee by jayjayvee Dec 24, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Approaching $64 now. As I thought, until we get a clear sign that the FTC won't impose any roadblocks for approval, it will be a deliberate climb to the ultimate closing price level.

    So, LO longs, 'patience is a virtue."

    In the meantime, a happy holiday season to all, and a healthy and prosperous 2015!

    JJV

  • Reply to

    if the votes passes in late Jan,

    by joehall2020 Dec 18, 2014 7:57 AM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Dec 19, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    FTC approval's timing is a wild card.

  • Reply to

    RAI

    by on3fr33bird Dec 1, 2014 9:45 AM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Dec 1, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    When the deal was first announced (seems like ages ago!) a value of $69-70/ LO share was cited. This implies a RAI share price of up to $67 (for $70 for LO). So RAI's current level at $65-66 is likely within expectations. Next quarterly result will clearly have an impact.

  • jayjayvee jayjayvee Dec 1, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Positive news, but not at all surprising: RAI and BTI would have deployed significant research/intelligence on the expected menthol outcome before making the overture for LO. What we need is a clearer signal that the FTC won't muddy the waters with any delay or request for alternations to the deal as agreed to. With LO still in the $63/share range, the markets still see some risk of non-closure.

    Good luck to all LO longs!

  • Reply to

    $63

    by jayjayvee Nov 20, 2014 1:35 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 26, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    The official word when the deal was announced was first half of 2015. My guess is mid-year.

  • Reply to

    what to do with LO

    by daytrade50 Sep 20, 2014 11:52 AM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 21, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    cobra's formula is correct but he understated the RAI price; at yesterday's $65.20, at closing LO would be worth $69.47. Don't forget that almost $19 of that is in the form of RAI shares which you'd then need to sell (if you want to realize the entire profit); tax implications of that are unclear.

    In my opinion (NOT ADVICE!) LO price should rise and approach the merger-deal value as it becomes clear that the FTC will approve the deal in its current form. We've seen it increase to $63 from the $58-59 level in the past month or so; this trend should continue barring bad news on the merger front. So if you wanted to get out before closing you likely can and make a $3 or $3.50 profit/share.

  • jayjayvee by jayjayvee Nov 20, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    Creeping up there, as the perceived risk of non-closure of the RAI merger lessens. Bigdopey63 and the other shorts must be crying...

  • Reply to

    Care to guess our divvy increase end of Nov?

    by stockgumshoe Nov 11, 2014 3:25 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 13, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    yes -- 1Q15 is what my "projection" was for. I don't think board will do anything aggressive; that, and modest EPS is why my increase is paltry.

    But let's hope that FTC clears the merger and we can get on with the share price where it should be!

  • jayjayvee by jayjayvee Nov 13, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Given that the Duracell deal was transacted largely via P&G shares, how will this translate into value for PG longs? Is it strictly in the share valuation given fewer shares outstanding? Insight welcome!

  • Reply to

    Care to guess our divvy increase end of Nov?

    by stockgumshoe Nov 11, 2014 3:25 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 12, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Based upon EPS for the 3rd qtr and 9 months to date, if 4th qtr is similar, then we're looking at $3.18 to $3.20 EPS for 12 months. At an 80% payout, which is high, the $3.20 implies $.64 for the dividend ($2.56 annualized). I'll be cautious and say $.635, which is only a 3.25% increase, but unless 4th qtr is way better than the recent past, I don't see it much beyond this level. IMO!

  • Reply to

    Speculation

    by blackoutbuzz Nov 5, 2014 12:04 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 10, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    One aspect that has not been discussed (as far as I've seen) is the tax treatment of the deal. Assuming it closes then a buyer of LO would receive $50.50 in cash plus the .2909 share of RAI. I have not seen/read what the basis of any capital gains would be, say on the large cash element (assuming the RAI piece is held). Would it be pro-rated? Say one buys LO at $62, and the value at closing is $70, split $50.50 cash and $19.50 for the RAI partial share. The cash represents 72.1% of the value - would this be applied to the $62 LO cost to determine the basis for the gain on the cash, i.e., 72.1% of $62 or $44.73? Probably not, but if there is uncertainty as to how much profit would be eaten up by tax, this could be reason for hesitancy now. Insights welcome!!

  • Reply to

    JOE earnings

    by richardjlai Nov 6, 2014 1:20 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 7, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    From Business Wire 11/6/14:

    The St. Joe Company (JOE) today announced a Net Loss for the third quarter of 2014 of $(0.1) million, or $(0.00) per share, compared with Net Income of $4.2 million, or $0.05 per share, for the third quarter of 2013. For the nine months ended September 30, 2014, the Company reported Net Income of $417.6 million, or $4.52 per share, compared to Net Income of $4.4 million, or $0.05 per share, for the same period last year.

    Third quarter 2014 update includes:
    • Total revenue for the third quarter of 2014 was $24.0 million.
    • Residential real estate revenue decreased from $10.7 million in the third quarter of 2013 to $3.7 million for the third quarter of 2014 due to a decrease in finished lot availability and the timing of a sixty-two homesite sale to a homebuilder during the third quarter of 2013. During the third quarter of 2014, there were no significant commercial real estate sales as compared to $2.1 million in the third quarter of 2013.
    • Resorts, leisure and leasing revenue increased $2.7 million, or 17%, during the third quarter of 2014 to $19.0 million as compared to $16.3 million in the third quarter of 2013. The increase includes $1.7 million of incremental resorts and leisure revenues primarily due to an increase in room nights rented and $1.0 million of incremental leasing revenue from leases in the Pier Park North joint venture as retail stores become occupied by tenants.
    • Timber sales decreased to $1.1 million during the third quarter of 2014 as compared to $7.7 million in the third quarter of 2013 due to the AgReserves sale which closed in March 2014. Tons delivered were less than 80,000 during the third quarter as compared to 373,000 during the third quarter of 2013.

  • Reply to

    real weak today

    by wnlsworld Nov 6, 2014 11:16 AM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 6, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Good point; strong dollar has been adversely affected stocks with significant foreign exposure since early summer.

  • Reply to

    Sell LO now?

    by habitsowner Nov 6, 2014 1:23 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 6, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    No one says you need to retain the RAI shares you would obtain in the merger. Sure, you can sell now at c. $62, or wait and then sell the RAI shares upon closing. The value, any tax considerations aside, of the RAI shares should not be less than $18.50 to $19, an advantage of a bit more than $7 for each LO share involved.

  • Reply to

    Senate victory

    by notsoobviousman1 Nov 6, 2014 9:39 AM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 6, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Makes sense; let's hope it's so.

  • Reply to

    Speculation

    by blackoutbuzz Nov 5, 2014 12:04 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 6, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    I see BTI making some move with or without the merger, though any action will be farther into the future post-meager (I'm being optimistic!) given operational action steps that will occur and a much larger capital base to deal with.

    In terms of pricing, in my calculation the market is still assessing about a 27% probability of non-merger, which is down from the low 30%s a few weeks ago. RAI would prosper regardless, but uncertainty with menthol and the FDA makes this a more acute need for LO operations IMO.

  • Reply to

    I think its time for a MO split

    by ownever Nov 3, 2014 4:15 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 4, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Last split was back in 1997, and this was of course prior to the separation of the international business into PM.

  • Reply to

    Shorting 800 in the morning.

    by jjohns8181 Nov 2, 2014 7:01 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 3, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Agree wholeheartedly, which is why these shorting advocates are totally clueless!

  • Reply to

    Shorting 800 in the morning.

    by jjohns8181 Nov 2, 2014 7:01 PM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Nov 3, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Why? Do you believe that the RAI merger/acquisition will not occur?

  • Reply to

    look out beeloooowwwww!!!!!!!!!

    by bigmittys63 Oct 30, 2014 10:14 AM
    jayjayvee jayjayvee Oct 30, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Don't quit your day job

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