- see eia.gov for weekly WTI prices. Halfway through quarter average is about $41 and will be higher second half of quarter - maybe $47+
- CLR reports an achieved price about $7.5 below WTI (last q) but that could improve as rail transport decreases
- barnburner production getting achieved on cheap wells while Bakken strictly cost-controlled
- 1Q realized was about $26. 2Q should be north of $35? - that + production means revs up 30%+
Do the math: decent chance they'll blow out 2Q estimates top and bottom. After that, it gets better...
keep an eye on oil sands production and ymm fire - "Syncrude joins Shell and Suncor in cutting production to focus on helping evacuees". that's this afternoon. up to 2M bpod can be exposed here. just another catalyst. I don't see the pullback in oil going anywhere, it's going to resume moving higher. CLR's fine
Shorts have a classic problem here. When a stock starts moving up and the fundamentals are in transition, how do you tell the difference between the stock making a short-term move that "isn't justified" versus the stock starting to make a long-term move that IS justified because the fundamentals are at an inflection point and buyers are out there willing to bet on it. Inventory levels are a current-indicator. Rig counts, production trends, and capex plans are forward indicators and they are all saying "shorts shoulda covered a month ago"...
The LAST piece of the puzzle will be a sufficient (not big, just o.k.) recovery in CLR earnings that the debt armageddon shorts are counting on will be taken off the table. Any short still counting on that has already failed to read the tea leaves, specifically, the fact that CLR's line of credit drawdown did not budge - at all - last q.