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jbcguy 84 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2015 5:54 PM Member since: Oct 21, 2000
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  • jbcguy by jbcguy Nov 23, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    Did any one ever say this guy is a scummy shill?

    After all the hype he has been putting out for the last couple of years, now the unitholders take it in the shorts.

    If ARP has any sense left at all, they will sell some of their longer dated hedges and buy back debt and pfd at a huge discount.

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  • is why Bluemountain Capital has bought such a large position in CDE.

    These are big time guys at Bluemountain. Know way of knowing why they are buying CDE--could be the specifics at CDE, the improvement in reserves, etc. Or it could be they are buying as a bet on higher gold and silver prices, weakness in the dollar. They could be short other mining names and long CDE as a hedge.

    Goofy Yahoo won't allow links to be posted, but just do a search on Bluemountain Capital, and you'll find their web site.

  • harehau has been right and for the right reasons. I am not harehau.

    ARP is a con game, a ponzi scheme. Cohen is a shill. Did any of you ARP losers notice that ARP wants to sell more pfd through an ATM?

    Only dummies would buy that pfd because the proceeds will be wasted if ARP pays ANY distribution to the limited partners. If buying that preferred is dumb, guess where you limited partners stand on the IQ totem pole?

  • jbcguy jbcguy Nov 14, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    60 cents annually?

    MEMP management seems incoherent. They buy back over $20 mill worth of their units at over $15, and then they cut the distribution. Did they think the price would go up after such a cut? What's really disgusting is that there was insider selling prior to the distribution being cut.

    Then they borrow $100 mill for the acquisition. What the heck are they thinking about except the long term incentive comp plan they want unitholders to approve.

    What they should have done first was to cut the distribution. No stupid buyback, how incompetent.

    Then explain to unitholders that the distribution was cut to help finance the acquisition. I would have been fine with that because it made sense.

    Now they should find some good operating people to help them get costs down. Terrible performance on their part.

  • Reply to

    Up over 10% on lower than average volume

    by jemcekbruce Nov 13, 2015 4:40 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 13, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    The oil market is being hit not only with OPEC overproduction, but it's been kind of blindsided by a jump in offshore production.

    Everyone knows that onshore production is bound to decline, but the onset of new offshore production is from projects started long before oil prices tanked. The last thing the market needs is any new supply, but that's what it's been getting. Noble just put into service a platform producing 20,000 bbls per day. Ugh.

    Yet analysts get bullish when they say (onshore) production is dropping about 100,000 bopd PER MONTH. Wake up out there. This is a glut we're talking about.

    Wish I could be bullish, but the reality is that we've got too much. Only hope I see is that mideast violence cuts opec exports. It hasn't so far, and the amount of oil Syria produces is peanuts, maybe 30k bpd.

    Mere mortals like us can't know what's going on behind the scenes. These oil prices are killing Russia, who gets about 50% of its tax revenue from the value of its oil and gas exports. You just know they'd like to see exports cut by OPEC, especially the Saudis, who are undercutting them in Hungary, Poland, and Sweden.

    Tough times in the oil patch.

  • Reply to

    Stil waiting

    by jbcguy Nov 13, 2015 3:41 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 13, 2015 7:11 PM Flag


    What makes you think they can't eliminate the distribution?

    Of course they can, and should in my opinion. Cooperman is right.

  • Reply to

    Stil waiting

    by jbcguy Nov 13, 2015 3:41 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 13, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    That is ATLS your are citing, not ARP.

    ATLS is what Cooperman bought. ARP is what he sold, still has around 8% though, unless he's still dumping.

  • jbcguy by jbcguy Nov 13, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    to see Cohen or any other ARP/ officers directors buy ARP for themselves, even in the 2's.

    They may be in a blackout period for a few days after the conference call.

    I'm guessing the distribution gets cut by at least 60%. They should do what Cooperman said. Eliminate the distribution entirelyand buy back their debt, which is yielding over 30%.

    No way ARP earns that kind of return by drilling wells, not at today's prices.

  • jbcguy by jbcguy Nov 9, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    I like the progress they are making in bringing operating costs down. With these lousy o&g prices, that's the only way they can improve margins and cash flow.

    On the q2 call, ARP said it expected g&a to be down 20% YOY by the end of 2015.

    My guess is that there will be little reaction in the price of ARP tomorrow unless they hint at something on the call tomorrow. I'd like to hear them say they may sell some of their more distant hedges. If oil is still in the 40's a couple of years from now, there won't be much of an oil industry left. Meanwhile, those paper gains aren't doing them any good right now except maybe as a mental security blanket.

    Will be interesting to see the trading on ARP's Nov options tomorrow.

  • jbcguy jbcguy Nov 9, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Cohen always seems happy.

    Why not, he hasn't bought any ARP units lately.

    Last year with ARP in the teens, he said they'd never raise new equity at such a low price. They sold some for less than $8 earlier this year.

    Last year, he said he expected ARP's 2015 distribution to be at least $2.40 per unit. Now it's $1.30.

    These are the facts, folks. Believe this guy at your own risk. He does have a track record, and no doubt he'll spew a lot of hype on the call tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    APA offer

    by bioimmunomabman Nov 9, 2015 9:29 AM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 9, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    Quit dreaming about a buyout.

    MEMP is too small to be of interest to any of the big strong players, and the rest of the companies in this space are are too broke to buy anything.

    Best hope is that MEMP starts buying its units. Their yield is now higher than what they earn in the Eagleford.

  • Reply to


    by k444buying333 Nov 9, 2015 4:22 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 9, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    What are you talking about?

    Q3 results haven't been released yet.

    Nobody in this sector is going to "hit it outta the park", period. ARP has already said q3 is going to look a lot like q2. Nothing to write home about, and cash flow short of covering the distribution again.

    Now if there is a big deal announced, then it could be a different story. I would alert you to the lack of insider buying.

  • During the q2 conference call, Cohen was asked about what kind of financing leverage they would have in a "strategic transaction". He said-

    "The fact that we have positive operating cash flow really gives us strength. So we'll pick and choose our situations, but I think any transaction we do should result in bringing our followers to their feet with joy."

    We're all waiting. Maybe we'll hear on Monday or Tuesday. Buyers of those calls may know something the rest of us don't.

  • Reply to


    by jbcguy Nov 5, 2015 4:14 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 6, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    Same here in my broker and retirement accounts.

    Tax-loss selling could still knock the price down imo, but I think memp is worth keeping. They have the strongest balance sheet in the mlp industry and the best hedges.

  • Reply to

    The debt covenants will improve

    by blotechproflteer Nov 6, 2015 4:18 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 6, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Just how will they do that?

    They've already said gas production will dropping, and so will their revenue. Debt is certainly not dropping.

    What, they are going to raise a lot of money for their drilling partnerships? With prices like these?

  • Reply to

    Hard to believe

    by jbcguy Nov 6, 2015 2:01 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 6, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    My take is that Cooperman wants some kind of distribution. He always asks about it on the conference calls.

    Leon has also taken a beating on RSO, a reit that's run by another Cohen, another hypster. Gotta wonder about Leon.

  • On the call MEMP said it still had $82 mill available on its unit repurchase authorization.

    I'd rather see them repurchase debt, but at this price on the units they'd get a higher return than the 20% they say they are getting in the Eagleford.

    New 10-Q hasn't been filed yet, but the last one said their credit line was at an interest rate of 2.08%.

  • that someone is still paying 20 cents for the ARP Nov calls with a $3 strike price!

    Gotta wonder if the buyer knows something the rest of us don't, like what's going to be said on the conference call next week. I hope that's the case, because the buyer of those calls is going to have to see a big % gain in just two weeks to come out even.

    Would love to have my ARP called away from me. I get the distribution, keep the option premium, and say adios to ARP.

  • Reply to

    Leon Cooperman

    by harehau Nov 6, 2015 1:21 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Nov 6, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Cooperman now owns 25% of ATLS, the GP. And yes, he's proven to be a moron in oil and gas.

    I suspect something is about to happen between ARP and ATLS, because ARP's financings are just a ponzi scheme for ARP to keep paying ATLS.

    If something good were about to happen to ARP owners, the insiders would have been buying. My guess only is that Cooperman and his firm will provide a big infusion of capital into ATLS, which will then acquire ARP for a song.

    ARP does have some good properties and is going a good job of bringing down LOE. They have some big gains in their hedge book which could be monetized--I'm talking the more distant gas hedges.

5.71+0.21(+3.82%)Nov 27 1:00 PMEST