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Sanofi Message Board

jbcguy 74 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Oct 21, 2000
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  • the forced selling by MLP etf's has passed.

    Forced selling due to margin calls may also be over or at least subsiding.

    Selling has just been insane, especially in companies like MEMP that are low cost producers and hedged to the gills.

  • jbcguy jbcguy Jul 27, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    Keep in mind that by selling Pinedale, ESCR lost the cash flow from that great asset, which has been responsible for 20-30% of its cash flow.

  • jbcguy jbcguy Jul 27, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Funding is the ONLY issue.

    How will ESCR raise money? Sell more stock? To whom?

  • jbcguy jbcguy Jul 25, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    I hope you are right, but I am skeptical. ESCR will still have over $35 mill in bank debt after the sale and isin violation of a couple of its bank loan covenants.

    Even if ESCR can't pull off the financing to acquire Warren's interests, other companies may be interested.
    GRMR would be at the top of my "guess list". They are drilling the first of 3 Niobrara tests, not far from Warren's acreage.

    GRMR is private, so you can't get info from them. ANYONE who owns Warren should be following Entek Energy, the little Australian company that farmed out part of its Niobrara acreage to GRMR.

    Entek is public. Just do a search on Entek Energy--they provide very thorough updates and should have another one in about a week. First well is down to 6000' headed for 10000'. GRMR should have results on its first well by the time Warren is scheduled to present at the big Enercom conference in Denver around Aug 17.

  • jbcguy by jbcguy Jul 25, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    MEMP may be prohibited from any buyback until it issues a press release on its next dividend.

    That pr should come on Monday or Tuesday.

  • Reply to

    Another contributor to the weakness

    by jbcguy Jul 22, 2015 8:36 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 23, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    I'll be surprised if the dist is cut.

    ARP is not as well hedged as MEMP, and they just declared their regular distribution. ARP bears could get sheared tomorrow.

  • jbcguy by jbcguy Jul 23, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Hope you choke on the crow you are about to dine on.

    You thought the distribution would be slashed.

  • Forced selling due to margin calls. An investor has 3 days to meet it, so unless MEMP bounces back soon, this will be another source of selling.

    This is a real panic we have going, and even the company's buyback program would not be able to absorb the kind of volume that hit today. No telling when it will end, but MEMP is due to announce its next distribution early next week.

    Let's not forget that MEMP has the best hedges in the industry! And that its operating costs are dropping.

  • jbcguy by jbcguy Jul 21, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Update from Entek Energy today.

    WRES has acreage about 2 miles from the drilling.

  • Reply to

    The Basics

    by mysonchino Jul 21, 2015 2:15 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 21, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    Cohen stinks, and there has been NO insider buying. He is a promoter. All talk, no performance.

    I took a loss here the other day, very painful. Another Cohen has run ARP into the ground. Just the name makes me feel ill.

  • Here's an excerpt. Does this sound like a company that's about to cut its distribution?
    If they are, I think it's already priced in to MEMP's prices.
    As discussed in the fourth quarter conference call, we expected the first quarter 2015 to be a low point of our plan for the year, as we will see production building, along with continued operating capital cost declines throughout the year. As such, we expect to see cash flow and coverage build over the year.

    Now, moving on to a discussion of debt and liquidity; in March during our regularly scheduled semi-annual borrowing base redetermination and as a result of sustained low commodity prices, the borrowing base in our MEMPs senior secured credit facility was decreased from $1.44 billion to $1.30 billion. We view this 10% decrease as comparing favorably, with the majority of the E&P revolver market, which solved declines broadly in the range of 10% to 30%, and was in line with our expectations, given our strong hedge book.

    Total debt outstanding as of April 30th was $1.8 billion, including $1.2 billion of senior notes and $613 million of revolver debt. This leaves revolver availability of $682 million, including the impact of $4.8 million in letters of credit. This liquidity position sets us up very well to take advantage of future acquisition opportunities, and what we expect, to be a very active A&D market as the year progresses.

    Next, I would like to talk about our hedging strategy and execution; our hedges remain a vital part of our discipline strategy and still play an integral role in the success of the partnership. Our hedges extend through 2019 and are essentially all swaps, which are very transparent and easy to evaluate. We are fully hedged to our maximum capability on natural gas through 2019, crude oil through 2018, and we have NGL hedges going out to 2017. This equates to 84% of our total current expect to production being hedged to 2015, at a weighted average equivalent price of $7.51 per MMBTU.

  • Reply to

    MEMP Specific Issue?

    by jmm_5_2000 Jul 20, 2015 12:47 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 21, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    It was only a month or so ago that RJ had an outperform rating on MEMP with a $19 target price. I used to think RJ had some good analysts.

  • Reply to

    Declining share price

    by ronstults Jul 20, 2015 4:02 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 20, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    smart money doesn't own rso.

  • Reply to


    by bobbyjopro Jul 20, 2015 1:00 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 20, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    Most disgusting part of ARP is that there has been no insider buying.

    The Cohen wealth effect. Wonder if he is short.

  • Reply to

    Let's not forget

    by jbcguy Jul 18, 2015 2:52 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 20, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    I'm not aware of any lockouts that would be in force right now, but if they have another acquisition they're about to announce, that would surely keep them from buying.

    Repurchase regs allow a company to buy a daily amount of its shares no greater than 25% of its average daily trading volume over the most recent 4 weeks.

    There a few other regs, like not being able to buy on the open or within a certain time before the close,15 or 30 minutes as I recall. Buying can only take place at the bid, or the last traded price, whichever is higher. All these regs didn't keep MEMP from buying nearly $40 mill worth earlier.

    Let's hope they are not in some kind of lockout period. This is a golden opportunity IMO, and MEMP is the only upstream MLP that I know of that has a repurchase authorization in effect.

  • that MEMP still has about $100 mill left on its unit repurchase authorization.

    It would be very timely for them to start buying back units. Not only is the price low, but ex-date is only about 3 weeks away. They could save 55 cents per unit on any repurchases between now and then.

    That would equate to an annualized return of around 50%--minus borrowing costs of 2-3%.

    Repurchasing units is a no-brainer.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by armchairprophit Jul 17, 2015 8:43 AM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 17, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Forget about a share buyback, just forget. Lenders won't allow.

    That is really naive to even bring it up. First thing WRES will do is pay down debt--IF they have excess cash after capex--which their announcement essentially says they will NOT.

  • Reply to

    Entek mention

    by jbcguy Jul 13, 2015 12:36 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 16, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    Kind of doubt it on getting to TD this soon. The well is going to nearly 10,000', and drilling gets slower the deeper it gets.

    Also possible they'll run into to some tough sandstone and water. That's what happened to Escalera's Niobrara well to the north.

    As the operator, GRMR is not required to disclose any info to working interest owners unless they choose to do so. Doesn't matter what the regs are on the Australian stock exchange.

    If I were GRMR and thought I had a good well, I'd keep quiet until I could acquire more acreage. All smart companies operate this way in a new play. Of course GRMR may already have all the acreage it wants.

    Getting interesting, for sure. ESCR wants to buy Warren's acreage and production in the Atlantic Rim. Financing it will be a big problem, given the strained finances of ESCR.

    Note that Warren wants to keep a big chunk of its deep rights and says it has acreage just a couple of miles from GRMR's well. Lots of eyes on this well.

  • Reply to

    Entek mention

    by jbcguy Jul 13, 2015 12:36 PM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 15, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    I'm showing 360 shares traded today in the US market. Whew, be still my heart.

    All the oils are getting killed today. No prisoners being taken.

    We should get an update from Entek at the end of the month.

  • Reply to

    Still think Cohen and Cooperman will

    by dragon.slipper Jul 13, 2015 11:25 AM
    jbcguy jbcguy Jul 13, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    You might want to look back and see how much ARP Cohen and Cooperman bought in the 18-20 range last year. A lot.

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