I think the greatest bust ever will begin in the next year. Subprime AUTO loans default rates are increasing and with oil set to plunge under $40.00/barrel the fracking boom will go bust in a hurry!
Price/revenue is 1.78 now and the highest since February 2001 so the stock market has a lot of room to fall a huge percentage from current levels.
The small investor has the highest allocation to stocks in history! Do not believe the lies from the Wall Street crooks.
The recent plunge in oil prices has caught the attention of Wall Street. As usual the stock market promoters on CNBC say the drop in oil prices will spur consumer spending. Is this even significant though even IF oil prices continue to plunge? No, and here is why, energy spending is only about 6 percent of income so even IF oil prices plunge significantly more, there will be little impact on consumers to spend more on other things. The negative impacts are far more profound and will mean the loss of millions of high paying jobs and drastic declines in economic activity in some parts of the USA.
Not all oil is the same grade and this is pertinent to the oil from fracking in the Bekken and Canada. The oil from these areas are much much lower grade than the USA light sweet crude now priced around $76/barrel. Much of the Bekken oil is under $60.00/barrel far lower than the light sweet crude price. This is big trouble if oil continues to drop. Keep an eye on oil prices and DO NOT assume that falling oil prices is good news as falling prices have negative impact far greater than any benefit.
The bull market in stocks is very near the end and the next bust will begin soon. Do not be fooled by this V bottom, it is smoke and mirrors. The next bust coming soon will crush the bulls and this bubbly stock market will fall 60 to 80 percent from the top. The prosperity over the past five years is false! The stock market is a debt fueled bubble! There is more corporate debt relative to GDP than ever before by a huge margin. It is not just a stock market bubble but also a corporate debt bubble too. Risk assets will get crushed in 2015, bet on it.
The market hissy fit is underway and should force the FED to come up with another massive new QE this time over 100 billion per month! The rot will continue until people realize NOT only is the FED not omnipotent like a God but they are in fact human like we are and prone to making mistakes and, yes, have created and continue to create a great conundrum that will lead to mother of all busts. Since when has any bull market in history been sustained on bubble finance?
It does not matter if it is pushed or not, eating insects is very healthy and raising insects is inexpensive. We could grow a food source that would eliminate two problems: food shortages and unhealthy diet. The processed foods that are a big part of the western diet are expensive and unhealthy. This MUST change!
For the past 130 years we have relied increasingly on others to provide for our needs from big government and greedy employers, but what if you could drastically reduce your dependence on others for the things you need for survival? You can start by growing your own food and eat healthier. It is not surprising at all that there is a global epidemic for diabetes, obesity, cancer, heart disease, and neurological diseases like ALS, but this problem can be drastically reduced or eliminated by growing your own food. A diet of insects, vegetables, and fruits would allow people to live better and more healthy and by growing these foods yourself you become less dependent. I know you are probably thinking that eating insects is disgusting but that is nonsense. Insects have a lot of nutritional value and a great source of protein and are very easy to raise without need for a lot of land. The ultimate satisfaction in life is providing for yourself without government welfare or salary from some employer. Try to reduce your dependence as much as possible. It is time for us to start working for ourselves.
The sad reality of stock market speculation and investment is that only a very small percentage of stock holders can possibly escape a bear market. After five and one half years of parabolic rise in risk assets so many speculators feel invincible and have been rewarded repeatedly for buying the dips. They think they can sell before the top and preserve their capital but all stock must ALWAYS be held by someone and only a small percentage of total shares of stock can be sold to a bag holder before or near a top with minimal or no losses. It is a fantasy to believe this FED induced bubble in risk assets can continue forever.
Pay attention to the dollar index. The dollar has been parabolic since July this year rising from around 80 to over 86 which is a huge move in such a short time. Europe and Japan economies are like house of cards which is why the dollar has been so strong lately. A parabolic rise in the dollar could signal a currency crises ahead which would be very bad for stocks and other risk assets. This could be a black swan that could surprise Wall Street and send the bubbly stock market into a water fall decline like what happened in year 2008. This development is a potential fly in the ointment in my bullish call for the stock market. Buy stocks now but be ready to sell in a hurry!
Gold and silver are heading for a HUGE decline from these high prices. Short gold and silver now and make a fortune. My target for Gold at the end of the year is $950.00 and Silver $12.00 Next year it will get even worse with gold possibly falling to $600.00
Buy stocks now and watch now that the correction is over. The stock market will resume its parabolic rise for at least another year. My target for S&P 500 for the end of the year is 2300 and a year from now 2650. Buy now and make a fortune! The stock market has been transformed into a huge casino by the Wall Street fast money trash and it is now a one way market with perpetual rising prices. Honest price discovery has been destroyed by central bankers and their awful misguided monetary policy, but that OK while the stock market is soaring and disaster when all the bubble finance that has been building for the last five blows up sky high. But that is a worry for another day for now just chase the stock market higher. Have a great day!
Debt greatly exceeds cash so they are really debt bombs and it will take much to crash this bloated stock market.
After years of pre market pumping this house of cards stock market higher, the tables have finally turned and the bull dies! YESSIREE it is dead!
Pumpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Pumpty Dumpty had a great fall and all the FED's men and women could not pump Pumpty Dumpty again! That is the end!
The valuation is so high that there is no way the buyer can make money for at least the next 15 years. The P/E is 22.7, price/sales is off the charts and the dividend is huge percentage of cash flow and will be cut drastically! This is perfect short. The strong dollar will kill this stock for sure. YESSIREE
It is less than one percent from all time high. It is NOT oversold. It is in fact grossly over bought long term!