you do know what tomorrow is? the third Tuesday of the month! this market is so overbought and is being chased by short sellers covering and money managers who were left behind from 1800 that we are primed for a big drop on any reversal in trend. frustrated by the action but no losing either, so whatever. this market will pull back big time as soon as the next rate hike is telegraphed...next week probably.
my puts are worthless...to people who don't know how to make money! sold half at a double, now waiting to see how low we go today! I'm out of here though, suckers...
a lot of newbies are chasing the heck out of this. no position, but looking to buy puts again. this is untradeable since everyone has been chasing the vix. this is vix futures, so I hope longs realize they are bought in at a futures price of 17.73 (weighted) at yesterday's close...rolling at 10%.
i think we're going to meander around this area for a little while and the next move will be down in the market ahead of the fed in june, or after! either way everyone will reset again.
I've been playing these vix products for 5 years, since tvix was the greatest short of all time when it mispriced by 50% back in 2012... the only reason you were able to make money long was because backwardation reigned for far too long and sentiment was more negative then march 2009! we will sell off again and uvxy will pop, but you could be waiting for a long time for the next run. by your momentum thinking, we should have kept going up in vix futures for the last 5 weeks, but that was wrong wasn't it? when is momentum right to play, and when is it wrong? I'm not a fortune teller, I will buy puts when we get oversold in the market and ride them out, but to time the ups and downs...impossible.
I never go long uvxy. I had a large number of puts for last week's expiration that were bank, but now I am sitting here waiting for the next spike. the longer we go without a spike, the higher the wall to climb for someone who is long. if you see a profit, take it and run away from this garbage.
I don't care if uvxy goes to $2,000 by march 18th, that's what buying puts means, I have limited risk. uvxy is a guaranteed loser, it can remain elevated through a time of great uncertainty like the last 6 months, but it will fall due to the leverage, period. now insert something about backwardation remaining for the remainder of history, not going to happen!
and I will add I haven't eaten into all of the gains from previous years, not even close! I will load up on December puts on uvxy in march. just remember, the higher uvxy goes, the harder it falls.
i haven't lost 100%???? I'm going to lose 20% on this bet because that's the biggest I go on any bet. I primarily am long spy and cvx/xom. you know that because you also attack me on cvx and xom.