The next several years will be very interesting from an investment standpoint. Look for the following:
1) Oil and gas to increase in price for a few years.....before cratering
2) Infrastructure plays (especially commercial infrastructure related to energy and infrastructure in general) to grow over the next several years.
3) Solar and alternative energy to grow SIGNIFICANTLY for the next decade +
Now....since this research is based on current facts and science as we know them....I didn't get this from FOX. This is from real science...and real research.....not hype and deceit.
Going to be a very interesting decade. How will FOX News explain that they lied about global warming? That will be fun to watch...:)
Looks like nat gas is making a run at $5. The rise in nat gas prices over coming years will increase demand for alternative energy like wind and solar TREMENDOUSLY.
HLF is one press conference away from starting its LONG AND WINDING ROAD DOWN to zero. It will be a long and painful ride DOWN.......
Weekly logarithmic chart. Just have to watch volume CAREFULLY. Charts don't make the stock price movements......stock price movements make the chart:).
No...not SCTY. But Herbalife is getting close to shorting. Going higher and higher on weaker and weaker volume. It is the NEXT ENRON.....but I would like to see an $80ish print before I short.
SCTY might be shortable at $75ish......but ONLY FOR A SHORT TERM (couple of months).....and only sometime in January AFTER it gets to new highs.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will issue a "buy recommendation" in January. Funny how their buys usually tend to be good times to short:)..... I'm sure it is a coincidence ......:)
...$70 - $75ish will be the next "intermediate high" before it pulls back. Market is likely to have a significant SHORT TERM pullback (10 - 15%) starting in January sometime....and ending towards the last couple weeks of March...to the first week in April. There are reasons that that SPECIFIC RANGE of time is a "normal stopping point".....
But for right now......SCTY heading UP towards its intermediate term high in the $70's....
Several of the alternative energy stocks (as well as the fossil fuels) are setting up to breakout to the upside.
Natural gas price "needs a rest"......it has risen a LOT over the past few weeks. Likely to see some pullback in nat gas over the next 2 - 3 weeks....
Oil has one more MULTI-YEAR run to the upside. That will also help the alternative energy stocks.....as "breakeven point" with alternative vs fossil fuels becomes the "rear view mirror".
....see you at $70 - $75 on SCTY. Other alternative energy stocks also playing along on this leg.....
Natural gas heading higher over next year (s).
....will happen quickly.....by sometime in January before the market pulls back. And again, I expect SCTY to ready for a significant pullback starting somewhere in the $70 - $75ish area...and maybe pulling back to the low $50's area....
Natural gas, after a very steep rise over the last couple months....is likely to "consolidate" for a while. The $4.70ish area is resistance. It may take weeks....it may take months, to go above that level.......but nat gas will continue its run UP in 2014. The next level of resistance after $4.70ish is the $5.80ish level.
As nat gas prices continue to increase over the long term.....that will continue to be very bullish for SCTY.
....is only starting. Here are a couple of good articles to look at. First...here is an article that reports two things: (1) the world just had the WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD, and (2) the article also discusses two recent scientific studies that show the warming over the last 15 years HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN at all.
The oil and gas industry is lying through their teeth....just like the tobacco industry did from 1950 THROUGH the 1990's.
As LNG exports increase......(which will increase the price of natural gas here in the US)....the world will continue to wake up to the fact that the world is indeed warming......in fact, warming at an increasing rate.
EVERYONE thinks that the absolute worst will happen in these three areas:
1) Middle East (Iran, Syria, Israel...primarily)
2) North Korea
3) Cuba (in Cuba...people likely think just "more of the same"
So......since we have "priced in" the above feelings for the past 60 years in the Middle East, the past 60 years in Korea, and the past 60 years in Cuba.....
....what happens IF something good happens? Then what? The market HASN'T priced that in.....yet.
...after we reach new high's in the market in January.....we will have a MORE PRONOUNCED and LONGER pullback of 2 - 3 months.....STARTING SOMETIME IN JANUARY.
Other solars look good....some "gaps" getting tested....and buyers showing up.
There are a few "events" that will occur as time goes on over the coming months...and years. Those "events" will provide much greater incentives for alternative energy stocks like SCTY.
1) Looks like solars are ready to continue their LONG TERM CLIMB...
2) Nat gas.....likely to pull back for a couple weeks or so. Has gone up 30% in 5 weeks...and yesterday looks like a SHORT TERM TOP. Not a big deal....nat gas and solars DON'T work together in the SHORT TERM...but they DO work together in the LONG TERM.
3) Still watching the mining stocks correct....and silver right along with them. Looking for a bottom in silver sometime in 2014 (March/April...maybe....Sept/Oct maybe??). Silver is used in some SOLAR APPLICATIONS, as well as by biotech applications. Silver at $15 - $16 looks like a POSSIBLE bottom. It has a VERY GOOD LONG TERM OUTLOOK.....but short term and intermediate term are still bearish. I'm sure all those people who listened to Glenn Beck to buy gold when it was between $1,200 and $1,850 are thrilled with his astute advice since it is now back down to the $1,200 level. Long term...it is heading higher....but short/int term bearish. Having mines close down will bring supply/demand back into sych eventually.
That sometime in January.....this market is going to correct sharply.....and SCTY will likely come BACK towards 50ish (after going up TOWARDS $70 - $75ish BEFORE heading back down). High beta stocks like SCTY do that.
December is always an interesting month. Well heeled individuals do their "year end tax planning" in the later half of November and into the end of December. S Corps and "cash basis" corps determine what their bonus payouts are going to be. Other corps that are accrual basis tax payers that have 12/31 year ends, pay out their bonuses in January.
So in January....one of the "sources" of cash to buy stocks.....drys up. THAT is one of the reasons that MANY TIMES (not always) January is the START of at least an intermediate term downtrend. And many times...it ends in the 2-3 week period between the end of March....and the middle of April.
High Frequency Traders move the market....of which Goldman Suchs and Morgan Stanly, etc....all play.
Covering my short on TSL....and looking to go long in the next couple of days.....
SPWR needs a couple days to "ripen" as well.
When the other solar plays are finished with their consolidation....SCTY will be able to move up...
1) Heading higher to upper end of channel $70 - $75ish...
2) Will be "shortable" when it gets there..
3) Intermediate term, continue to watch NATURAL GAS. The price of nat gas will be the LONG TERM driver of solar stocks.
4) Most solar stocks have been consolidating the last couple of months....SCTY likely won't move up until the group moves up...
5) Goldman and others will be shorting the begeebees out of this after it gets to the upper end of the channel......
...a downward swoon in coming AFTER the market completes its current run up. Swoon likely to take START sometime in January...and run until end of March. Maybe Goldman will give a "strong buy" recommendation at the TOP like it usually does. In my next life if I have NO ETHICS, maybe I'll work for Goldman:)