....see you at $70 - $75 on SCTY. Other alternative energy stocks also playing along on this leg.....
Natural gas heading higher over next year (s).
One interesting thing to watch over coming months/years.....is the money that will be moving OUT OF Oil and gas stocks......and into "new era energy" companies.
There is a LOT of money tied up in oil/gas/coal companies in the stock market. Companies like the French oil company Total (pronounced TO-TAL.........Tal as in Al with a T) is changing from an oil and gas company......to a total energy company that is increasing its emphasis on alternative energy. It was also the first company to say NO to drilling in the Arctic.
It will be a LONG PROCESS....but all that money that is "parked" in oil and gas companies will be coming out and looking for a home.
One of the things that is given almost no attention.....is how the new "energy market" will be EXPLOSIVE for both business AND individuals.
Think about it: The "old energy system" is (a) unsustainable, (b) unhealthy, (c) increasingly expensive. The "new energy system" that is in its early days of development is (a) sustainable, (b) healthy, (c) will be LESS EXPENSIVE as it continues to grow.
That will be a HUGE plus for EVERYONE on the planet.....
Weekly logarithmic chart. Just have to watch volume CAREFULLY. Charts don't make the stock price movements......stock price movements make the chart:).
.....you can NEVER trust Goldman Suchs. EVER. You see....they come out and put SCTY on its "conviction buy list" after it as gone up 700% from its bottom near $10. And they JUST NOW come out with a "conviction buy". LAUGHABLE. I guess that is why you can't have ethics to work at Goldman.
Again...look for SCTY's INTERMEDIATE MOVE UP to top out in the $75ish range. Goldman will be shorting between $75 and $80.
The real interesting short in a few years.....will be the oil and gas companies. And when they are flying high, you can count on Goldman to be pumping as much as they can. Oil and gas companies will be the SHORT OF THE CENTURY in a few years.
SCTY continues up (as expected and noted before). Look for a SHORT TERM TOP in the $75 - $80 range.....and look for a "short term top" to be reached by the end of this month AT THE LATEST.
I FULLY expect a pullback in SCTY as well as the overall market for a "couple of months" (likely until the last week of March or the first week of April........but it is certainly too early right now to make a "call").
Not surprising to see more upgrades now....it will provide much easier shorting in the SHORT TERM.
NOTE: I am BULLISH in the long term (in fact....EXTREMELY BULLISH on SCTY and some other alternative energy stocks). Just realize that they get "run up" in the short term at tops......and "run down" in the gutter at short term bottoms.
High frequency traders (Goldman, Morgan, and others not affiliated with "investment banks") run the markets. You have to understand that.
SCTY has another short term foray into the mid $70's coming during the last couple weeks of this month. After that....it is correction time for a couple months back into the low to mid $50's.
Nat gas continues its run...........and this is just the start of a multi year run UP in nat gas.
Out of the water kids. Banks, precious metals, and Asian stocks are NOT TELLING A GOOD STORY.
Next couple of months likely to be SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DOWN SIDE.
Just when Goldman Suchs says that Asia is now a buying opportunity. They will lie about ANYTHING to suck investors in.....
No...not SCTY. But Herbalife is getting close to shorting. Going higher and higher on weaker and weaker volume. It is the NEXT ENRON.....but I would like to see an $80ish print before I short.
SCTY might be shortable at $75ish......but ONLY FOR A SHORT TERM (couple of months).....and only sometime in January AFTER it gets to new highs.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will issue a "buy recommendation" in January. Funny how their buys usually tend to be good times to short:)..... I'm sure it is a coincidence ......:)
The next several years will be very interesting from an investment standpoint. Look for the following:
1) Oil and gas to increase in price for a few years.....before cratering
2) Infrastructure plays (especially commercial infrastructure related to energy and infrastructure in general) to grow over the next several years.
3) Solar and alternative energy to grow SIGNIFICANTLY for the next decade +
Now....since this research is based on current facts and science as we know them....I didn't get this from FOX. This is from real science...and real research.....not hype and deceit.
Going to be a very interesting decade. How will FOX News explain that they lied about global warming? That will be fun to watch...:)
...for this INTERMEDIATE TERM RUN. Market pullback starting sometime in January....and lasting until late March early April (March 15 - April 7 three week time frame).
SCTY: Same story.....heading to $70 - $75ish
HLF: This puppy is levitating on fairy dust. It MAY have one more "higher high" before it starts to tank....but I wouldn't buy this for myself WITH YOUR MONEY. This has ENRON written ALL OVER IT.
Nat Gas: Looks to be near a short term bottom....and heading higher.
It is fascinating to me that people actually watch FOX in the first place. Now.....I'm an Independent voter....so I'm constantly looking for THE TRUTH on any issue....not just opinions.
But for FOX to bash global warming.....is so ridiculous.....that FOX only attracts people who are to the right of Atilla The Hun. If they are so "fair and balanced", why are 90% of their pundits conservatives?
When FOX viewers wake up in America, England, and Australia......and find out that they have been LIED TO for 10 - 15 years on global warming......they will pay a heavy price. Right now, their viewership is primarily made up of 50 - 90 year white males.
SCTY and other alternative energy sources are in a VERY LONG BALL GAME over the next few decades.
SCTY: Changing my low point in SCTY to $60ish (59 - 60) from "low $50's). Look for light volume pull back from the $80 high to continue. Long term VERY BULLISH.
Nat Gas: Short term/intermediate term high was hit 2 days ago. Expect a month or two of consolidation (choppy and down).
Market: Still looking for an "intermediate term bottom" sometime between the last 2 weeks of March and the first week of April (that 3 week "window"). Buy on increased FEAR during that window.
A) Nat gas is up to $4.69 as of yesterday. Couple things pushing it up: (1) cold weather on the east coast for next 10 days or so, (2) markets for nat gas becoming tighter as exports of LNG increase around globe.
Expect nat gas prices to continue to increase over coming years.
B) Melt season in the Arctic will begin in April. There are several indications that this will be another "nasty" melt season......perhaps like the record melt of 2012.
The next decade will continue with a ONSLAUGHT of new solar and wind projects.....and growing amount of individual's moving to solar.
FOX News is going to be working overtime to lie about climate change........
We're CLOSE to an intermediate top in the market....AND....SCTY. As I have stated for several weeks...I expect the market and SCTY to be weak in Feb and March.
Also look for weakness in the payroll and jobs numbers. That will be the "line" that is followed by the talking heads. I'm not talking SEVERE job numbers...I'm just talking about mildly disappointing jobs numbers...which is all it will take to help the market correct for a couple of months.
Remember.....the "western" economies are very much in a "transition phase"....as is the whole world in some respects. (1) many western countries are slowly LOSING population (Japan, some western European countries, US is slowing down), (2) also in a LONG transition away from fossil fuels. That is also going to be a LONG transition (multi decade).
Also looking for gold/silver to have MORE DOWNSIDE. Everyone seems to think that things are going to "blow up" in the Middle east....and that thought has been pervasive for the last 10 - 20 years. If the "markets" all think that things are going to blow up in the Middle East......then worst case scenarios are already "price in". The possibility of "peace breaking out" at some point is NOT PRICED IN.
If we have inflation stagnant.....and a somewhat peaceful scenario possible.....I think gold and silver are both continuing to head south. I think we could see gold head towards $750 and silver head towards $10 and that might happen this year.
One other thing to note regarding the movement of money out of oil and gas companies (over coming months/years/decades) is that SOME of that money initially.....is though a "divestment campaign" much like the campaign in the 1990's and onward.
As climate change continues to impact more and more people in their own backyards......the money will slowly move out of the fossil fuel industry. Just keep in mind that this is something that will play out over DECADES. There is a LOT of money "camped out" in oil and gas companies.
Also.....the coal industry is, and will continue to be, the FIRST fossil fuel industry impacted because it is the worst offender. That will actually help the natural gas companies INITIALLY......because electric utilities are replacing coal plants with natural gas. Also....in Florida you have the first utility that is running on a combination of SOLAR and NAT GAS. So they got rid of their coal.....and utilize solar as much as possible, except at night when they utilize natural gas. So you can see that coal is definitely the "ugly sister/brother" that is being impacted first. And....initially this will help natural gas (and one of the reasons I expect nat gas to CONTINUE TO RISE IN COMING YEARS). At some point down the road, however.....I expect nat gas to ALSO start a LONG DECLINE. No idea when that will happen.....but it could be many years down the road.
10 trading days left in the month. Looks like SCTY will need to go higher to wash out shorts....and temporarily (maybe 2 months) run out of new longs. When it gets too far above the bollinger bands....it will come back.
Tops take a little bit of time for the market. It's like an elevator.....at the top floor you have people shoving and trying to get out, and people shoving and trying to get in. Hedge funds can't ALL get out at the same time...they need some time....
HLF: To the guy who was long Herbalife.....I told you that it was a disaster waiting to happen. I hope you sold it (or even better....went short). It's going to ZERO over coming months...
1) SCTY still heading to 60ish towards the last 2 weeks of March or first week of April
2) Arctic ice sheet CONTINUES to LOSE ice over the last week. Now at record lows for this date.
3) Continue to watch market for increased volatility as it moves LOWER over coming 4 - 6 weeks...
BULLISH long term on SCTY......but its heading lower in the short term.
Just for clarification.....I am a SCTY BULL....LONG TERM. Long term....this will sell much higher. Short term....we're closing in on a top at $75ish. You can check my prior posts if you want to..