Red Hat, Inc. Message Board

Look for China and commodities to rally over next few months....and that includes MCP. Will likely be met with short term selling the first time up through the daily Bollinger band....but longer term looks very good.

Covered my short (finally). Would not be surprised to see a "basing period" for 2 - 4 months, where the stock bounces from the low $5's to the $6.50ish area (and may do so 2 or 3 times before breaking UP. Big buyers will add to positions on the dips when it gets in the low $5's. Traders will be selling the first time or two when it gets into the mid $6's.

Fundamentally....it is also toast. Big holders are going to be bailing as fast as they can. Get out now...before it gets to zero.

Heading towards zero....

MCP still accumulating in high $4's and low $5's. Remember....this is NOT going to be rising quickly to high levels. This puppy has a lot of "repairing" to do. Intermediate term traders will sell this in the mid $5's the first time through the bollinger bands. AAPL....will be a buy when it announces earnings (and gets the obligatory sell rating from Goldman....just when you should be buying:). Silver is close to a bottom....any day between NOW and this coming Monday. We're definitely getting in the ball park....look for mining companies to rise BEFORE silver bottoms (that could be TODAY by the way).

We ARE in a recession that likely started in July of 2012....and we WILL get some rather news that will likely disappoint...so we WILL get a pretty descent pullback that could last a month or two. I would look at DOW 15,000 as a likely point where the hedge funds (algo traders) will start dumping. Watch this Thursday morning jobs report.....the weekly jobless numbers should start rising. By the time they "announce" we are in a recession in a month or two...we will likely be OUT of the new recession.

Commodities are going to be on a TEAR over the next 3 years. This should help MCP significantly. I see that Goldman Suchs has downgraded oil in the short term. I love listening to Goldman. I expect West Texas Crude to hit somewhere between $150 - $165 over the coming 3 years (it will then have a LONG decline into oblivion after that). But the next 3 years for commodities will be huge. Silver will also head MUCH HIGHER. We could see $80 and ounce or greater (its now at $23). Shanghai heading much higher and will help commodities prices as well.

I LOVE Goldman Sachs. LOVE THEM. in October of 2007....just as the economy was TOPPING....they come out with a bullish call. Just like today. They come out and RAISE their forecast. But do you think that Goldman is LONG on the investment side? NO. They are short. And they will become shorter over coming days and the next week or two.

Look for banks and commodities to weaken....and for Molycorp to continue its slide over coming weeks (maybe 2 - 3 months).

Remember...MCP is accumulating in the low $5's (and high $4's)....but intermediate term traders will be selling in the mid $6's on the first push through the daily bollinger band. Apple will be a BUY AFTER IT REPORTS EARNIGS NEXT WEEK and is pushed DOWN during the morning. Silver and mining stocks likely to bottom this week. Silver is VERY CLOSE to a LONGER TERM BUY right now. Look for volume to dry up over the coming days.....and it will be a buy.

Remember..the recession we are now in, started in July of 2012 (about 9 months ago). I would expect them (there is a group that "calls" recessions) to announce that the US entered recession last year......within the next 4-6 weeks. Usually when they announce the date that the recession started.....we are very near the END of the recession. I expect the recession to end within a couple of months. They won't announce the end of the recession until 6 - 9 months AFTER IT ACTUALLY ENDS. Commodities are always the last to fall. Looking for Apple to hit 350 - 380ish on the first hour after they announce earnings.

Look for China rally over coming few months....and MCP to play along. Remember that the first trip UP through the daily Bollinger band....intermediate term traders will sell....and then likely fall back to the lower Bollinger band.

Apple.....look to buy the first hour AFTER earnings have been announced. Look for algo's (algo traders....like Goldman and others) to push Apple down at the open.

1) China will continue move up....and expect MCP and commodities to follow along over time
2) Apple....as I have said before....will be a buy now that the earnings announcement is out of the way. Expect a few downgrades....and more guidance lower. Expect to see Apple between 350 and 380 today and it is an "intermediate term buy". I would be a SELLER as it approaches $700 in 6 - 9 months from now.

This is going to be a long multi-year run for China and many of the commodity related stocks. MCP should grind higher in fits and starts. Higher highs....and higher lows.

Market will be starting a pretty good pull back Thursday (or possibly even today). Jobs reports over the next month or two should deteriorate some. MCP likely headed down to the mid-to-high $4's again (to the bottom or slightly below the daily Bollinger band).

With a bad jobs number on Thursday....this could get pretty ugly. Remember....you don't need a LOT of shorts to move a stock, or for that matter....the market. Take a look at the exchange traded fund TZA. It is a BEARISH etf (triple bearish) against China. Look at all the volume over the last 3 weeks as hedge funds go in to gobble up some bearish bets. Also, look at yesterdays "hanging man" in the S&P 500. This has all the markings of a coming blood bath in the market over the short-to-intermediate term (1 to 2 months).

I've never seen a stock that has such bad fundamentals, at the same time is has such horrible technicals. Look for a large "triangle" to break down over the coming week or so. This baby is heading to zero...just like its CEO. Word of an investigation will likely be the thing that pushes it over...

Won't be looking at going long until volume drys up to a shrivel....