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Advaxis, Inc. Message Board

jckrdu 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 6:07 PM Member since: Feb 27, 2013
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  • Reply to

    The gap at 2.59 has to close

    by voltmarkman Mar 3, 2015 11:12 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 26, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Yep, on the same page.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The gap at 2.59 has to close

    by voltmarkman Mar 3, 2015 11:12 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 26, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Volt - Good call on the gap between $2.59 to $2.66 filling. In all the stocks I invest in, I track the gaps... so I was watching that one in the ATHX chart. Because that gap formed on the Chugai news, and was larger at one point and then partially filled... I was on the fence on whether it would fill or not. Anyway, good call.

    On the gap in the low $2s.... yes, there's a very small gap between $1.99 and $2.02. That gap was created months ago. A couple of reasons why I don't think that gap will fill: 1) very small gaps like that sometimes don't fill after the stock has moved past it. ADXS is a good recent example; ADXS still has a small gap in the high $2.50s. It never filled and ADXS ran to over $13. 2) When the $1.99 to $2.02 gap formed, there was some very odd trading right at the end of the day when it closed at $1.99. It was trading at $2.01 to $2.03 for about 15-30 minutes prior to the close, and was trading at $2.02 right before the close. I remember being surprised when it closed at $1.99. It opened the next day at $2.02 (right where it was trading for 15 minutes prior to close the day before). I noted the gap, but made some comments to myself that it was an odd one.

    Anyway, for those reasons.... I'm not concerned about that last very small gap filling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ATHX RALLY COMING!!!!!!

    by siestadoc45 Mar 26, 2015 12:04 PM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 26, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Agree. I posted the below elsewhere. Good call Voltmarkman on the $2.59 to $2.66 gap...
    __________________________________________

    Same movie, different stock. :) Pretty much a textbook gap fill. Moved down quickly from $2.71 to just below the gap at $2.58, and then 45 minutes later it recovered back to $2.71.

    Congrats to anyone who was able to pick up shares at the bottom of the gap. IMO, that was the bottom.

    Hopefully - with that gap now filled - we start to stabilize and trend back up. The 2 things that we now have working in our favor are 1) computer trading doesn't see a gap in sight that it wants to fill, and 2) retail shareholders that were selling because they thought the gap may fill... or who weren't buying because of the same reason, now are more apt to either add shares, or not sell the ones they're holding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interview with Gil back in 2013

    by kingfishercharters Mar 24, 2015 9:39 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 24, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Thanks Bio!. The below is the full text of the question and answer.

    Sam: Gil, your board saw the unblinded data for the first cohorts in the stroke trial that enhanced their excitement for the program. Can you shed more light on that, please?

    Gil: I don't want to go into too much detail yet because it's very much a study in process, but we actually have the opportunity as a board to look at the data from the first two cohorts of the study, the low-dose cohort and the higher-dose cohort. Without going into the specifics, I can tell you that what we and the clinical safety committee observed is one, a clean and consistent safety profile, even at the very high dose level, which people are very excited about, and two, we and the board were excited about encouraging signs from the interim data, and as a result prioritized moving the study ahead as quickly as possible. There's no guarantee of success, obviously, but we like where we are.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interview with Gil back in 2013

    by kingfishercharters Mar 24, 2015 9:39 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 24, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    King - Thanks for that quote. Very promising, as fast forward 2 years to the deal with Chugai which tells us that both ATHX and now Chugai are liking what they're seeing.

    Do you have the date of that interview or the link?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jckrdu jckrdu Mar 23, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Did MEIP announce a $200+ million licensing deal to commercialize their therapy in Japan prior to results like ATHX did?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is Gil so Confident?

    by jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 5:14 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 19, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Thanks for that information Btb! Promising.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is Gil so Confident?

    by jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 5:14 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 19, 2015 7:29 AM Flag

    Hey Matty - Good thoughts. I guess my response would be that Gil doesn't want to say much more about it because he'd be going down the path of speculation... speculating that the different types of responses are due to Multistem. IMO, he stated his overall opinion that he believes the trial is likely to succeed, but just wasn't comfortable going further until he sees the unblinded data.

    But good question... something to think about.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is Gil so Confident?

    by jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 5:14 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Good thoughts Cychbull.... I hadn't thought of that angle.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is Gil so Confident?

    by jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 5:14 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Agree Doe. Thanks for weighing in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is Gil so Confident?

    by jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 5:14 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    David,

    Many thanks for that information. That's what I thought... very happy to see you confirm it.

    jck

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is Gil so Confident?

    by jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 5:14 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 18, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Good thoughts btbkc, and thanks for the response. Yeah, I'm a little skeptical on the blinded data part as well, and if Athersys does have all the data.... but that's the only thing that makes sense to me.

    In a non-blinded trial, the sponsor of the trial gets to see all the data as it comes in so they can assess any safety issues that may have occurred, etc.... so why wouldn't ATHX have all the data as its coming in over the years, with the only caveat being that its blinded? It doesn't make sense to me that ATHX would run a 2+ year trial, and only see the data at the very end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I've been thinking more about Gil's statement during the last conference call where he stated "This trial is likely to succeed for a variety of reasons." Why would Gil be comfortable making that bold and public statement? My thoughts...

    My assumptions are that Gil has seen 1) the un-blinded data from the first 2 cohorts (so he knows how Multistem performed against placebo in some cases), and 2) the blinded data from the entire stroke trial broken out by each site. (Please correct me if these assumptions are wrong.)

    With regard to #2 above, if the blinded data was showing that all patients were responding/recovering somewhat the same, I don't think Gil could or would make the statement he made.

    In my opinion, I believe that the blinded data Gil saw - and shared with Chugai - shows a somewhat consistent separation across all trial sites, where some patients are doing better than others. While Gil doesn't know who got Multistem or placebo, the only way I believe Gil would be comfortable stating that he believes the trial will succeed, is if he saw some type of consistent pattern of some patients doing better than others across all trial sites.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jckrdu jckrdu Mar 17, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Do some research on the recent regenerative medicine legislation in Japan, the Athersys/Chugai partnership, and the implications of positive results given both of those factors.

    Revenue will come much earlier via Japan because of the above.

    Athersys hasn't guided any specific timeframe for revenue if they see positive results, but IMO it'll be soon enough for analysts and the market to start pricing it into the pps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Athersys Trading

    by wahnton1138 Mar 2, 2015 7:25 AM
    jckrdu jckrdu Mar 2, 2015 7:38 AM Flag

    IMO, this news makes the $5-$6 pps range pre-data very likely, maybe higher. If you can still buy anywhere in the $3s today, risk/reward still very good at those levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jckrdu jckrdu Mar 1, 2015 11:25 PM Flag

    I liked this line as well. More deals coming...
    _____________________________
    "Athersys and Chugai are committed to working together to establish a leadership position in the regenerative medicine cell therapy area in Japan."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jckrdu jckrdu Feb 18, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    If the data is good we should see a lot more than $7-$8 in the first 90 days. Why? If the data is good, they'll announce that they've applied for conditional approval in Japan per Japan's new regenerative medicine legislation. Japanese partner will also be announced IMO within 90 days after results... CEO has been laying the groundwork for close to 2 years in Japan. ATHX should be at $10 on news they've applied for conditional approval (as good results should allow approval)... market cap would still be under $800 million. Award of conditional approval in Japan will take it to $20 - $30 range IMO, maybe higher. A $20 pps is only a $1.5B market cap... and IMO that's low for a company that would be on the verge of generating revenue in Japan at $25k per treatment if results are good. IMO, ATHX is a stock not to sell too soon if good results are announced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    a perspective from a cautious long

    by cychbull Feb 14, 2015 12:01 PM
    jckrdu jckrdu Feb 15, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    Wow. Really showing your ignorance here. Thanks for clearing things up for us.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exit Strategy Post #2

    by arkasious Feb 12, 2015 11:22 PM
    jckrdu jckrdu Feb 13, 2015 7:28 AM Flag

    The legislation only went into effect 3 months ago in November 2014. Companies like ATHX and Meso are on the leading edge on leveraging the new legislation. Hard to say how quickly they'd be granted conditional approval after positive results are announced, as we don't have any other examples... no one else has gone through the process. Regardless, news of decent results, an application for conditional approval, and some more definitive news on the partnering front in Japan are likely to come very soon after results... and IMO will send the pps much higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exit Strategy

    by arkasious Feb 12, 2015 1:22 PM
    jckrdu jckrdu Feb 12, 2015 8:41 PM Flag

    Agree. Read the legislation Cych... it was specifically written to allow data from trials run outside of Japan to qualify for early conditional approval in Japan. Japan is serious about getting these regenerative treatments to market sooner... and ATHX is in the catbird seat with Phase 2 stroke results coming out. If that first domino falls (probable efficacy) all of the others are IMO almost certain to fall... conditional approval, revenue, partnerships, non-dilutive funding, etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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