I am not going to try to pick apart your arguments but I do not think the pain has stopped. It is good to note that TPLM has not gone back to the level of $3.10 and then dropped below there.
Saudia Arabia was being asked to suck up the excess supply by unilaterally withdrawing supply while the Bakken players pump all they can and continue to do so and will continue to do so as prices drop in order to meet their obligations.
While SA can agree with its OPEC partners to move the market one way or the other, any agreement between the American producers would be collusion and would bring the BOJ down on the heads of the American executives.
This is yet to play out and find a bottom.
I know of no other investment sector that has taken any losses of the magnitude that the energy sector has this year. For those who have losses in taxable accounts I suspect many will capture such losses and this may roil the market for energy stocks until the new year.
Those who fear a stock will get away from them in a possible rising market can buy their second best idea to protect them from such a rise until the 30 day period passes and they can re-purchase their first choice stock.
On the prospect of a drastic drop in prices in the near future due to tax selling or other factors, I have placed GTC orders on several pipelines and other oil related stocks that can only be called dream prices. If any of the orders are filled I should be happy some months down the road when the oil market settles at a higher level.
Just some thoughts.
The problem I have with your posts is that you never suggest the probability of something happening--you state it as though you have absolute command of the future.
Now a long streak of such successes and we are off to the races. Seriously, I have never seen a day when my oil related investments blink the "high of the day" indicator so often and that, when the overall market is down 170 points. Is this the turn we have awaited?
I do not agree with your point of view. New procedures and processes are being developed in the oil industry and the companies that do survive this downturn will, no doubt, be looking for mergers and other corporate changes to enhance their positions. In the future they may be respected for their cutting edge technology or other features that improve their economic lot. Thus, they may just sell for something of a premium. At your suggested maximum PE of 6, earnings would only have to rise to about $1.70. Is that beyond the realm of possibility.
OK, so I guess I need to ask which drillers have the most acreage not currently held by the operating metrics that allow them to keep the leases?
Aren't there some of the baby oils that have leases that require drilling/pumping at some definite point in time to retain their leases? If so, anyone know which companies may face this additional headwind?
This is probably billnuts98 from the KOG message board. He was not welcome there either.
When you get your certificate in grammar from elementary school, please come back and explain what you mean. Re: title of your post.
Contra: I believe in the power of politics. When the right people feel enough pain from losses in oil the ban will then be lifted. But what is the difference in exporting oil as opposed to just not importing it?
Various articles I read suggest the oversupply is 2 million barrels per day. A vast difference from the 200k you suggest. Are you sure your numbers are correct?
Aren't there international laws against dumping products to hurt a given group or country? I can not remember the specifics but seems like steel was a product that was dumped on the US some years back that resulted in international sanctions? Is this possible with oil?
It seems to me the American companies in the shale plays will keep pumping as much as they can to keep their revenue up or increasing even as prices are falling. If this is to be the American action, it seems SA would be likely to cut their production only if they are in the most severe pain. If they have the low cost product, seems they are likely not to give in to us. Just my take on the situation.
I fear what you suggest about the babies getting together would violate the "whatyoumaycallit" law about collusion. Only in America, land of opportunity.