This just in from flyonthewall. Not as bad as JPM, I suppose.
16:43 EDT TNK
theflyonthewall.com: Teekay Tankers initiated with a Neutral at UBS
Target $4.50. :
If the BO group garners enough yes-votes to win, could/would dissenting shareholders seek damages? What I'm asking is, if the BO group wins the vote, could they nevertheless be in a position of having to consider increasing the price to avoid the cost/risk of protracted litigation? Or is the BO a "done deal" if approved?
From Flyonthewall today:
Teekay Tankers upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill upgraded Teekay Tankers two notches given seasonal and secular growth. Price target raised to $5 from $2.50.
It appears as if SNTA's Hsp 90 results have created concern about OGXI's heat shock protein pipeline. While SNTA's P2 results were disappointing, lung cancer is a notoriously difficult target (I'm bearish on 011's prospects in this application.) Additionally, there was some insider buying after SNTA tanked - for whatever that's worth.
SNTA's Hsp90 seems effective, but perhaps not effective enough. I believe the recent downward pressure on OGXI shares has more to do with doubts about 427 than pricing in a 011 failure. Investors may be concerned (or shortsellers may be hoping) that heat shock proteins, in general, will produce the kind of results recently released by SNTA.
The latest dip coincides with SYNTA's decent but disappointing ASCO presentation. SYNTA's Hsp90 inhibitor extended OS in a lung cancer trial, but the benefit was not as great as had been expected.
Correct, Ayers had no OGXI per its last 13F (covering Q4.) Highly unlikely that the fund accumulated and liquidated the same position in Q1 since Ayers does not appear to be closing and OGXI is a lame trading stock. While someone else could be selling, I'm wondering if a more jaded view might apply. With a OGXI-011 binary event approaching, this might be a case of a fund seeking to accumulate shares ahead of the event by "shaking the tree" (trying to buy low by bear raiding the stock to shake out jittery shareholders.) Stock price manipulation has become a hackneyed expression among retail investors, but absent any unfavorable news, I'm at a loss for another explanation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Greg Wade, Wedbush (3/11/13) "OncoGeneX Pharmaceuticals Inc. reported Q4/12 earnings per share of ($0.28) based on timing of collaboration revenue from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., ending the year with $75.7M in cash. . .the key catalyst for OncoGeneX shares remains data from the phase 3 Synergy trial of OGX-011 (custirsen) in the H1/14 time frame. . .we reiterate our Outperform rating."
Douglas Loe, Byron Capital Markets (3/8/13) "There is no change in our valuation or investment theses or positive view on the medical potential of OncoGeneX Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s OGX-011 in castrate resistant prostate cancer, with OGX-427 providing future upside to our forecasts; we maintain our Buy rating and $30.50 target. . .the company continues to drive clinical programs for both OGX-011 and OGX-427 in what is among the most robust clinical pipelines in our coverage universe."
Philippa Flint, Bloom Burton & Co. (3/8/13) "We continue to rate OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals Inc. shares positively as we believe the company's shares are attractively valued for risk-tolerant investors. Pivotal phase 3 data is expected around year-end for custirsen in first-line prostate cancer. . .we are encouraged by the survival data seen in phase 2. . .and recommend investors buy shares at current levels, as we expect them to gain in value in H2/13 as we approach phase 3 data readout."
Katherine Xu, William Blair (2/13/13) "We believe the chance for success is higher for OncoGeneX Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Synergy (custirsen plus Taxotere) study than the other phase 3 studies conducted to date in this setting, based on robust data observed from custirsen's randomized phase 2 study. Should top line data from the company's phase 3 Synergy study demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in overall survival versus Taxotere alone, we believe the combination could grab substantial share of the front line as well as second line chemotherapy settings; top line data from Synergy are anticipated during Q4/13."
Douglas Loe, Byron Capital Markets (2/12/13) "OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals Inc. will be starting a new phase 2 cancer study testing its ISIS-licensed heat shock protein 27 (Hsp27)-targeted antisense drug OGX-427; this will be a 200-patient second-line active-controlled metastatic bladder cancer study combining OGX-427 with the taxane drug docetaxel (Sanofi's Taxotere), the same drug with which OncoGenex's lead antisense drug OGX-011 is combined in an ongoing pivotal prostate cancer trial. . .we view the commencement of Borealis-2 as positive to OncoGenex's phase II/III oncology pipeline, a pipeline in which OGX-427 is growing in status with now five phase I/II oncology trials."
Posting here has become so frustrating (Yahoo's infernal spam filter swallowed several previous attempts.) In any event, following is Adam Feuerstein's synopsis on 011. AF is a biotech journalist (not an analyst.) Although he is sometimes accused of bashing, I've found most of his articles to be substantive rather than subjective. I've taken a 50% position in OGXI, and intend to buy the rest (double down) if 011 disappoints. Of course, I'd be very happy with what I have if OGXI were to surprise to the upside based on 011 news. FWIW, AF on 011:
OGX-011 is designed to inhibit a protein known as clusterin that plays a role in cell survival. By knocking out clusterin in tumors, OGX-011 makes cancer cells more vulnerable to chemotherapy and other tumor-killing drugs.
OGX-011 is being developed in prostate cancer as an add-on to Taxotere, the chemotherapy drug considered standard of care for patients with advanced disease. In a phase II study enrolling 82 patients and presented in 2009, the median overall survival for the men treated with OGX-011 plus Taxotere was 23.8 months compared to 16.9 months for men treated with Taxotere alone -- an improvement in survival of 6.9 months favoring OGX-011. Expressed another way, treatment with OGX-011 reduced the risk of death by 39% compared to treatment with Taxotere alone.
While this result was not statistically significant, the strong trend favoring a survival benefit for OGX-011 was compelling because the data came from a randomized, controlled trial.
Doubts cast upon the reliability of the phase II data centered mainly around the fact that OGX-011's survival benefit came despite the drug having little or no measurable effect on tumor progression compared to Taxotere alone. Fifty-eight percent of men treated in the OGX-011 arm reported a PSA response compared to 54% of men in the Taxotere-alone arm. PSA is a commonly used biomarker for prostate tumor growth. Progression-free survival was 7.3 months for the OGX-011-treated men compared to 6.1 months for the men treated with Taxotere alone. The median number of treatment cycles administered was also greater in the OGX-011 arm (nine cycles) compared to seven cycles for men in the Taxotere arm of the study.
Q4 whale (big fish) activity was released mid-month. Some interesting OGXI activity:
Jeffrey R Jay (Great Point Partners), the fourth largest OGXI shareholder, increased his OGXI position by 101,383 shares (+14%) and held 822,492 shares as of 12/31/12. Jay's history isn't perfect , but he has a good track record and his credentials are respectable.
RA Capital Management purchased 370,807 shares in Q4 (+70%) and became OGXI's second largest shareholder with 894,232 shares on 12/31/12. I believe RA's biotech stock picker is Peter Kolchinsky, who has a PhD from Harvard and a good track record, as well.
As of 12/31/12, OGXI was about 10% of Jay's portfolio and a little more than 4% of that of RA. I'm actually surprised that they'd be buying OGXI ahead of 011 P3 news (which I think will be disappointing), but their timing certainly suggests it.
The filing states that the affair is a "developing personal relationship." If it's ongoing and on good terms, why does the Board need to pay Burris not to sue? Smells like a shakedown to me.
"If Ms. Burris agrees to release all claims against the Company, the Company has agreed to engage Ms. Burris as a consultant for a period of one year, beginning on the date she agrees to release all claims ... . Following the end of the consultancy, if Ms. Burris agrees to release all claims against the Company, the Company will pay Ms. Burris a lump sum payment of approximately $410,000, which is consistent with the severance payment in her prior employment contract ..."
Why couldn't Cormack be like other CEOs and just bang his secretary? Biotech investing is risky enough.
BTW, anyone seen her picture (Google it)? What a waste of money!
John McCamant, Medical Technology Stock Letter (12/21/12) "OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals Inc. has done a good job building a pipeline behind its lead drug-development candidate, custersin, which is in multiple phase 3 trials. While 427 was barely on the radar screen when custersin entered phase 3 development, the drug development candidate is poised to deliver multiple phase 2 results in 2013; we continue to believe that the company is undervalued and that 427 is basically a free 'wild card' for OncoGenex's shareholders."
Greg Wade, Wedbush (12/19/12) "OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals Inc. has begun the phase 2 (PACIFC) study of OGX-427 and Zytiga in prostate cancer patients. . .we view the PACIFC study as a logical continuation of the positive data seen for OGX-427+prednisone compared to prednisone alone that was reported in September. Recall that study showed patients treated with OGX-427+prednisone had a 71% disease control rate, compared to 48% of prednisone-treated patients, with 56% of OGX-427 patients having a 50% or greater prostrate-specific antigen decline, compared to 27% of prednisone-treated patients. . .we are maintaining our Outperform rating."
Katherine Xu, William Blair (12/19/12) "Top‐line data from OncoGenex Pharmaceutical Inc.'s SYNERGY (custirsen+Taxotere) is expected during Q4/13. . .we maintain Outperform rating and $21 price target. Our current valuation is based solely on the company's lead candidate, custirsen. . .in our probability‐adjusted NPV model, we assume peak worldwide sales of custirsen in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and non‐small cell lung cancer of $580M and $250M respectively, with 60% probability of success for custirsen in both indications. . .revenues from OncoGenex's second clinical candidate, OGX‐427, would provide upside to our current valuation."
Tsakos Energy COO says 'we think the worst is behind us', sees stong Q4
George V. Saroglou, COO of TNP stated, "Looking ahead, we think the worst is behind us as supply of vessels shrinks while global oil demand continues to increase." As freight rates seem to be slowly negotiating themselves out of the doldrums, we enter the expected "strong" Q4 of the year in the hope that the sector upturn evident in the prior quarter will eventually return to exhibit signs of a sustainable recovery. The improving supply situation is helping in that direction as the orderbook continues its downward trend. According to Clarkson Research Services, it stands at 11.7% of the fleet as opposed to 12.6% in June and 14.4% at end of 2011. By comparison, at end of 2010, the year when shipping rates took an abrupt and severe turn for the worse, the fleet orderbook stood at 22.3%. This declining orderbook is coupled with a healthy oil demand outlook for 2013, 90.5mbpd vs. 89.7mbpd in 2012 according to the International Energy Agency. In addition, special attention should be paid to certain geopolitical events around the world as they tend to increase oil demand and freight rates.
If you'd done your homework, you'd know that the target price reduction was due to Chinese macroeconomic concerns. The analyst clearly states that the revision was made out of concerns that Chinese advertising as a whole may be negatively impacted if there is a prolonged downturn.
Cover while you can.
Thank you for looking up the patent info. I only recently learned that BMY had terminiated their Hsp 90 P3 studies (partly) for patent expirations reasons, and have been fretting about history repeating itself in this case.
I thought similar policies already were in effect?
When does the patent on 427 expire? I seem to recall BMY halting P3 studies on its HSP-90 inhibitor due to patent expiration concerns.
Sorry to revive an old thread, but I'm wondering what evidence is out there that contradicts the results of the study cited at the top of this thread. TIA