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PHAZAR CORP Message Board

jdberwanger 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 2:38 PM Member since: Jan 19, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Who of Longs Still here?

    by lokeren45 Jul 18, 2014 7:48 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jul 18, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Haven't looked at the chart in detail for the last week or so but from what I recall 35 to 36 is either the 66% or 75 % Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend. Always looking for support levels but all the levels I thought would hold recently have not. I do think there is a better than 50% chance we will be up greater than $5 on the earnings report. On stocks that have options, I would be buying the cheapest call options right now (.05 to .10) for the nearest strike. Of course this would be after Ive already bought the common multiple times. Too bad their are no options on silc.

  • Reply to

    Who of Longs Still here?

    by lokeren45 Jul 18, 2014 7:48 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jul 18, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I've been here 8 years. I'm with you Sahmdars, fortunately we have the luxury of being in for awhile. Nothing has changed, in my opinion the company is in its best position ever at this point. Too many different irons in the fire.

  • Reply to

    Who of Longs Still here?

    by lokeren45 Jul 18, 2014 7:48 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jul 18, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Had 38k shares at peak. Sold 10 k in the 40s and 2k in the mid 60s. Bought back 3k around 41. What's a million here or there?

  • Reply to

    Second Quarter Earnings Announcement

    by schneider356 Jul 17, 2014 3:05 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    I saw the earnings announcement date put out o Thompson One. It was out a couple of weeks ago.

  • Reply to

    Steam roller coming

    by bird_splitter Jul 16, 2014 8:21 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jul 16, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Can't make the call as Im in Italy for a little vacation. If someone could ask the following on the call, it would be appreciated. Do they ship any products out of Israel? If so, are they seeing orders being pulled forward due to the possibility of the airport being closed? Might they think about a stock repurchase plan instead of a dividend given the current share price? What are they seeing with both the setac and time stamp products? Thanks in advance.

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Jul 9, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    They always say look at the debt of a company and that will give you an idea regarding the common. Has anyone noticed that the preferred d is now trading at the $ 50 par? Given it traded down to the mid 30's not more than a year ago, I think thats a very telling sign. People that own both the C and D preferreds have no doubt that those investments will be good given the prices.

  • Growing 25% to 30% per year with a 13 or so PE. Seems like a pretty good bet to me. Dont forget about:

    Standard bypass, non by pass business for Wan Op
    Setac business growing nicely
    Time Stamp business (will be significant - comments from CEO)
    New tech acquired from South Korea - another way to speed up the networks
    Smart Silc partnership with Intel
    Hadoop - growing a multiple of 10x over the next 5 to 10 years
    Internet traffic doubling every 6 months or so
    Founder of the company owns 22%
    No debt and $7 in cash, 2.5% dividend
    Expanded to larger facility to satisfy new business

    I'm 10 times more confident in this company than I was 2 years ago. Time to start with a little $ off the home equity line as we all know stocks go higher and lower than one could ever imagine. Snowman, feel free to press it down some more if you like. More than likely shorts will begin to cover before the next short reporting date and earnings report.

  • Reply to

    Has to Be a DEAL

    by innsbrooklad Jun 27, 2014 3:54 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jun 28, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    How about the reshuffling of the indexes that someone mentioned earlier. That is the most likely reason.

  • Reply to

    Handing out free money here!

    by jdberwanger Jun 21, 2014 1:59 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jun 25, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    Bought 4k shares between yesterday and today. Charts say that this will fill the gap to $ 38. The problem is everyone thinks the same way therefore it won't fill the gap. How many quarters in a row have they beat the analysts expectations? Maybe 12 or is it 14? Read some good news that will make it tougher for the market manipulators on the small/micro cap stocks. The SEC is going to do a trial period for one year on the spread between the bid and ask. It looks like it's going to a nickel from a penny or fraction of a penny. That will make it harder for the manipulators that are out there. I'd like to see the names of the instituions that are short stock published also. Notice they only publish the long players. You could then trace the bogus reports that are put out directly to who is short. It may take a few more years but I bet it's coming. Hedgies better take advantage of it while you can because that game will be over too.

  • I can't tell you how many times I've see this pattern develop. First the hedgies/market makers crush a stock under the 50 or 200 day moving averages. Then, they hold it down and make one last fake out by dipping below the lowest point of the base that is forming to make it look like the stock is continuing the downtrend. For those of you who know this story, you know what to do. I'll take all bets that we will be higher 2 weeks from now than we are today.

  • Reply to

    $20 DOLLAR PRICE TARGET IS INTACT !

    by grntip_2000 May 30, 2014 12:40 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jun 2, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    I think this next quarter will be the turning point as we will have for part of the quarter the 2 factories now combined into the new lower cost facility. Also, look at the earnings estimate jump from .26 to .83 for next year. I wouldn't be waiting until the next earnings report comes out as you'll be too late to join the party.

  • Reply to

    Observations

    by jdberwanger Apr 24, 2014 8:24 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger May 10, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Short numbers are out. 3/31 - 41k, 4/15 - 79k, 4/30 - 167k. I thought it might be 100 t0 150k on the number but Mr. Hedgie has been hard at work. Looks like his yelling "fire" in a crowded building did the job. This is a prime example of a low volume stock getting manipulated. Shaike has to get out there and do corporate presentations to attract some analysts and institutions. If we had more institutional support the yelling fire wouldn't have created a panic. Watch the short numbers, you will see the stock recover with the short interest numbers coming down. I know it won't happen but a power play right now by management would be a $ 5million stock buy back. If they have to discontinue the dividend so be it as we have no institutions to support the stock. A corporate buy back would be the next best thing. Long and strong for the next couple of years!

  • Reply to

    Price Prediction

    by judge2525 Apr 30, 2014 12:06 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger May 6, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    50% chance we see 20% upside tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    SFY ~ This Company is Handcuffed!!

    by oilman95762 May 3, 2014 2:40 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger May 3, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Oilman, I agree with your thoughts. It's as simple as this, whats the chance of a land sale or joint venture? I would peg that as at least 75%. Maybe I'm overestimating. Then if it does happen (assuming were not giving the house away) what does that do for the stock? If I look at a best case/worst case looking out 12 months, I could see $20 at some point on the upside and if no liquidity event happens, maybe $9 on the downside looking out 12 months from now. In my mind 80% up (driven by the shorts covering) and 20% down with no liquidity event. We have another 3 years before any debt comes due. If everything works out, I see another PVA or MHR where the price zooms higher quickly.

  • Reply to

    SFY ~ This Company is Handcuffed!!

    by oilman95762 May 3, 2014 2:40 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger May 3, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Your comment makes no sense. You say "looks like a lose lose to me". Then the next sentence you say that you are long. If things look so bad than why are you long?

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger May 2, 2014 7:34 AM Flag

    Investing is all about handicapping the odds and waiting for the event(s) to happen. After listening to the call I peg the chances of either the joint venture or sale of a portion or all the Louisiana assets as between 80% to 90%. In my mind you are looking at 50% to 60% that both of them take place. Looking out at stock price based on these odds, in 12 months if one takes place we see an upper teens stock price. If both take place we see a low 20s stock price and if neither take place the shorts will crush the stock temporarily (and will try to do the same prior to any announcement over the next couple of months) and wil keep the stock in the $10 to $12 range. This is just one man's opinion and if oil/nat gas prices decline significantly than these prices are subject to revision. (Although I wouldn't bet on it with the Ukraine situation)

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Apr 25, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    As of 4/15 79k vs 41k as of 3/31. Take away the 3 day settlement and you get shares traded betwen 3/26 and 4/10. Low and behold 3/26 was our announcement on the possible shelf filing. Imagine if your a short on a microcap like this and you sold 38k shares within 5 to 10 minutes. What happens? You get someone yelling fire and only one small door open for everyone to exit. Couple that with the shelf filing notice and you give someone like Snosurfer a reason to throw that order into the market. Notice what the price was on 4/10. It was about the same as the close on 3/26. My gut tells me we will see a 120k to 130k short number as of the 4/25 trade date on the next short number. The added shares will be another 40 to 50k short that happened on the earnings announcement day yesterday. Just some thoughts on how to look at things from a different angle. Long and strong. Not concerned as I learned my lesson about margin many years ago.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Apr 24, 2014 10:12 PM Flag

    Same thing will happen that happened at MHR. Short # sky rocketed at the bottom at less than $3. Now the stock is $8 plus. Wouldn't you think at some point these guys would learn? If they were a short only fund they'd be out of business. The long side of their portfolios is the only thing that keeps them afloat.

  • Reply to

    Observations

    by jdberwanger Apr 24, 2014 8:24 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Apr 24, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I'm disappointed and amazed where the stock is but am extremely comfortable holding at these levels. We have a market multiple stock growing at much better than the market.

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Apr 24, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    Just like a blowoff top, this feels like a blowout bottom. I kind of wonder how much of todays volume was "fake" volume, trading back and forth by the market maker/hedgies. It's been my observation watching the tape for years that more recently stocks with reasonable valuations that gap down in big volume end up making a bottom very quickly if not even that same day. This has started happening over the last 12 to 18 months in particular. Two stocks recently off the top of my head that did this same thing are MHR and SFY. Also note for you guys trying to buy or get out of a particular stock on a volatile day, when the market makers/hedge funds are manipulating a stock and have a strangle hold they will go to lunch at 12:30 eastern time and you'll notice the pressure on the stock will go away almost always for an hour or so. Look at the price action today, it was pressed down until that time and then rallied for the next hour up $2.

    To think that the growth rate has gone from 50% down to 10 to 15% is not the case in my opinion. Think of what the company has going for it: Setac, Time Stamp, partnership with Intel, Smart Silc, cloud computing trends, internet traffic trends to just name a few. (CEO said time stamp product could very well be $10s of millions of revenue per year down the road. Look at the corporate presentation and they expect the same out of SETAC.

    Were Q4 sales possibly sped up? Maybe Silicom gave better pricing to move revenue into the 4th quarter given their tax rate was 10% roughly versus 15% in the first quarter? A couple of million dollars in orders on January 2nd versus December 31 would mean a 60 to 70% growth rate in Q4 and maybe a 40% growth rate in Q1.

    Short interest cut off date is tomorrow for month end April. Expect the stock to be up tomorrow as market makers/hedge funds cover some of their shorts or if they decide not to tomorrow look for short interest number of between 100k and 150k when end of April #s come out.

ANTP
1.250.00(0.00%)Jul 31 1:39 PMEDT

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