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PHAZAR CORP Message Board

jdberwanger 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 25, 2014 2:04 PM Member since: Jan 19, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Hey Bobo

    by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 25, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    Bobo, glad to see you are finally taking my advice. See that you pulled in your short 200k shares or so over the last reporting period.

  • Reply to

    Insider Selling

    by jms54 Dec 23, 2014 8:13 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 23, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    Exercise of stock options and paying taxes. In transaction type is says "f". F — Payment of exercise price or tax liability by delivering or withholding securities incident to the receipt, exercise
    or vesting of a security issued in accordance with Rule 16b-3

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 23, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    No liquidity in bond market along with etfs and hedge funds using etfs makes for bond prices to be very inefficient.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bobo

    by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 22, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    Just increased one of their credit lines after the bell. Companies can't do this unless they are in better financial shape. You keep referring to the return vs. the S & P. Yes, you are correct about the past but what only matters from this point is the future. Look at those earnings estimates. Oh, I just checked again they are not up by 100% for next year but closer to 150%. P.S. - industrial companies seem to be getting stronger the last few days and rumor has it small caps will recapture some of their glory in 2015.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bobo

    by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 21, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    5 x ebitda - debt along with technical analysis. Ebitda KEM with NEC is now at 150 million. Once complete merger done, execs said they can see another 100 million in ebitda from combined entities. 5 x 250 million in ebitda = 1.25 billion less 500 million net debt = 750 million market cap. Today's market cap 175 million. $4 today's stock price x 4 (175 to 750 mil) = $ 16 . Put some growth on the revenue number and refinancing the debt at lower rates and that number could be conservative. Limited downside risk. If you counting on a liquidity squeeze to allow you to get out of your short, it's not going to happen. Company is cutting $ 15 million in salaries/people over next 12 months. Too much cash flow for any type of liquidity squeeze. Time to move on Bobo.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bobo

    by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 21, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    With 3% world GDP, $14 to $17 in 36 months. It will hit near the top end of the chart where it peaked out back in 2010/11 after coming out of the 2008/09 downturn. The one good thing you have going for you is that you don't have to worry too much except for the earnings reports/outlook. That gives you time to cover your 2 million shares. My friend, after the tax loss selling disappates I would suggest you pull in the reigns because this will be your last time to maximize your profit. Why don't you do like some of the hedge funds especially with the microcaps. Cover your position and then go long the same amount in a short period of time. You'll win on both sides of the trade that way.

  • Reply to

    THE BONDS HAVE REALLY BEEN POUNDED

    by cccbondguy Dec 19, 2014 5:46 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 20, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    Might be good opportunities in bonds in the oil patch. We have the advent of the etfs and the brokerage firms carrying limited inventory in bonds in today's world. As a result what would have gone down to .80 in the past now overshoots and goes to .60 or .65. Just one man's opinion but I think things have overshot on the downside in the oil patch. Also, I don't believe the banks are going to be pulling credit lines. They don't want to own a bunch of oil companies. They just went through this with the housing crisis.

  • Reply to

    Utica Natural Gas Prices

    by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 10:15 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    Let me clarify. I believe they are getting a much lower price (around $1 less) on unhedged production currently. Does anyone have any better information about their current selling prices?

  • Reply to

    I find it interesting

    by innsbrooklad Dec 18, 2014 12:19 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 10:25 PM Flag

    Tax loss selling in my opinion. Last year they knocked the stock down to .60 in December and within 2 months later it was around $2. It may take some time but too many irons in the fire. On last conference call CEO said they had more than 40 different projects they are working to get done. Look at the positives in the last 12 months. They have their plant up and running that they have I believe 97% interest in and just supplied a coal stock to reduce significantly their expenses. They have the other plant that's about to ramp that they own 25%. They have the energy plant with GE in Pakistan that they are progressing towards along with todays announcement of several plants with GE in China. They recently signed a contract (better than the GE Deals) with the Chinese Aluminum company that should produce revenues much faster. The CEO took 1/2 his comp last year in stock. They have Chinese financiang and Chinese ownership in Synthesis and the Chinese government wants to cut down on the smog which is a natural fit with Synthesis. It all adds up to me. Feel very comfortable with the addition of 15k shares in my Roth IRA. Call me crazy but I see $1 turning into $5 or more in 2 to 3 years.

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    First of all I'm long big time. Over 100k shares and am very comfortable that in 24 to 36 months I will see a double if not triple in return. I know that all the energy stocks are in the same boat as the computers/algorithms don't differentiate from gas to oil at this point. I'm comfortable because of the CHK sale to SWN, I'm comfortable because of being in mostly gas. I'm comfortable because GE locked in the credit line and therefore it can't be reduced. I'm comfortable because of the upcoming IPO on the pipeline. The one question mark in the short term that could keep us down here for longer than I like (until the IPO) is the price they are getting for their natural gas. It's my understanding that they are getting considerably less than the price at Henry Hub. Meaning they are getting closer to $ 2.75/btu rather than $ 3.75 at the Henry Hub. Now I realize this isn't forever but does anyone have any insight on when this will change and what will cause it to change? Does it have to do with the Mark West processing facility or is it more of where the pipelines go in that they can't get their gas down to the Henry Hub with out big costs?

  • Reply to

    Hey Bobo

    by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    By the way, I know you have noticed those earnings estimates. Happy Holidays.

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    I tell you what, I'll give you even money on a bet. I'll bet you that Kem does at least 4 times the return of the S & P 500 over the next 24 months. If the return is less than 4 times I'll by you one of those beers that Obama served and if it is greater than 4 x vice versa. You have been right so far and as anyone who has been in the markets for any length of time knows, small/micro cap stocks can be manipulated on a short term basis but over the long term the fundamentals/earnings always win out and I don't know if you noticed but the earnings estimates moving forward up over 100% from this year.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 18, 2014 7:51 AM Flag

    I agree but 2 billion in assets with 1 billion in debt and a market cap going into yesterday of 150 million? I think we all agree with the recent transactions in close proximity to Swifts land in the Eagleford that it would not come as a surprise at all that some one could come in and scoop us up. If I were an acquirer, I would be in buying all the stock in the open market I could get my hands on.

  • You can say short covering but given the TPL transaction and our proximity to their assets along with the Carizzo transaction recently and our own transaction with Saka and things add up to someone is snooping around. We'll either see a 10% filer or a takeover bid in the next two weeks. Just one man's opinion.

  • I know it won't happen but things are starting to get silly! 6 days at down .50/day and that wipes us out. I just assume we drop 1.75 today and get us down to $1 so we can build from there.

  • Reply to

    6 more days and we'll be at zero

    by jdberwanger Dec 15, 2014 5:58 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 16, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Down .45 a day from current levels and we get to zero. I just assume they take it down to $1 share and then we can start to recover from there.

  • This is starting to get silly now. Lets just take in down to $1 tomorrow and get it over with. Then we can start to rebound from there.

  • If it's down only .07, 50/50 we end positive today. The world isn't coming to an end after all.

  • Reply to

    Well control lost. Nobody injured.

    by heisoktoday Dec 14, 2014 6:09 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 14, 2014 10:26 PM Flag

    ht0629,
    The Stewart Winland Wells have more pressure than the Stadler wells. Have you heard anything as to those wells? I have to believe that if they are having trouble on this well what's to say the same won't happen to the Steward Winland? On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me that those are already turned on in that they received the permits well over a week ago and I have to believe given the production of those wells and the year end production estimates that they finished those wells before going to the Stadler wells. I have no idea but it would be nice to see a press release that the Stewart Winland wells are on line to offset this negative news. Thank you for the clarity as to the drilling.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Dec 14, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    I first read and was thinking this was the Stewart Winland Wells. At least that's a bit of good news. For someone who doesn't know much about drilling for natural gas, do we have one lost well or four lost wells because they are on the same pad or is it something in your opinion that can remedied in a few days and all the wells can be pumping. Anyone care to handicap?

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