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Silicom Ltd. Message Board

jdberwanger 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 4:59 PM Member since: Jan 19, 2007
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  • Reply to

    To all long time posters

    by jdberwanger Apr 11, 2014 4:56 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Apr 11, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    IMO, 75% chance the stock has found it's bottom. It seems to rise every day starting at 3:00. ETF and margin call selling prior to then. Volume then picks up the last hour as institutions come in or maybe it's Turb!

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Apr 11, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    By engaging Snosurfer you are feeding his ego and providing him a reason to continue to post here. Our silence will eventually run him off the board. He won't want to talk to himself for very long. Just a suggestion.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha to $100

    by bird_splitter Mar 20, 2014 7:47 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Mar 20, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    I agree with everything you say. Have approaching a 10 bagger on my hands. There was a time when I was questioning management believe it or not. It was back during the big downturn when the stock went from $ 28 to $3. On the way up management got some significant options at $12/share. After the stock went into free fall they cancelled those options and reissued them at $6/share. At the time I was ticked off. Now I forgive them.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha to $100

    by bird_splitter Mar 20, 2014 7:47 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Mar 20, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    Anyone can write for seeking Alpha. It's hard to say whether he was writing to unload stock or not. My guess is that he wasn't selling after publishing. The reason is that the gentleman is from Cobia Capital. If you've listened to the calls over the past 2 to 3 years there is a gentlemen that gets on and asks questions to Shaike from Cobia. I think the guy is long and truly believes the stock should be higher. By the way look at the number of institions that started positions in the stock last quarter. That is the most that I've ever seen in one quarter. My guess is that they aren't going to buy 5k or 10k shares and then blow them out in a few months. More likely if the stock goes down to any degree they will be in building out their positions. Watch for that list to continue to expand.

  • If the shorts would have not upped their position by 5.7 million shares in the last 45 days, I bet we'd be maybe at 6.25/share rather than at 6.50 on 12/31. It's been my experience that these hedge funds are getting more and more brazen. What I mean is that they short massive amounts of stock in very short time periods. This has been a more normal occurrence lately. In order to generate any type of positive return in an up market this is the only way they feel they can by shorting in this manner. I'd like to go head to head with these geniuses. I would take the long side and they could have the short side. I would eat them alive! Based on huge increase in the short #, low pe, improving balance sheet, lack of competition in the Gulf, possible increase in demand from Pemex, sale of noncore assets, refinancing of debt, experience of CEO and insider buying in the last couple of weeks, I'm going in and buying another 10,000 shares tomorrow morning! By the way, the recent massive call buying is the shorts covering some of their position.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Feb 16, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    The move will begin prior to the earnings. Get ready for takeoff!

  • If institutions could come in and buy maybe another 2 to 3 million shares (they own 51 million currently), this would push the shorts into a panic and we would see $17 to $18 quickly. I feel another PVA (Eagleford play went from $5 to $12 quickly) or MHR went from $4 to $ 8.50 quickly. Low and behold Soros owns both of those and entered recently. I can't stand him when it comes to politics but George I'm giving you a gift here if you come in and buy now.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Feb 13, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    Watch and learn Bobo, 100% return in the next 12 months. Want to bet?

  • jdberwanger by jdberwanger Feb 9, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    I would be willing to bet it comes this week. Then the naysayers will come out and say "yeah that was a good idea as they bought at 6.57 back in November". Stock has been absolutely crushed. I put the odds at 90/10 that if you buy now you will make money in one year. I'll take those odds anytime.

  • Hedge fund shorts held it down the whole day, even to the close. They have a big short position and will try to scare you out of your shares in the morning. Expect a wash out in the morning and then the climb begins. You have to think they have inside word on something going on with the company. The price has already played out being down 40% in 3 months. Buy all you can if you see a gap down in the morning!

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Feb 2, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Shorts are toast. Look for stock price to start moving 2 to 3 days prior to the mid February cutoff date on the short interest reporting. It's been my experience the shorts play games with the short interest cut off dates. In particular, if a stock is heavily shorted and they know they are in a box they will short heavily right after the cutoff date only to purchase the shares back the last couple of days before the next report date. Therefore, if the stock doesn't move this week, look for some buying on February 10th or 11th as the 11th is the last date they can buy to influence their short number on February 14.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Jan 31, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    Buying every .40 down. Eagleford drilling didn't slow down that much with the cold weather. How cold does it get east and South of San Antonio? I'd be willing to bet they put out an announcement prior to earnings about the sale of the Louisiana land so they can talk about it on the call. If that's the case, they will also have their game plan on their capital allocation with the proceeds from the sale. Just remember 71 wells drilled with no dry wells! The shorts have 4 weeks to buy some shares back before this stock explodes like a volcano!

  • Management seems to be delivering as expected now that the problem with their sourcing in Africa is under control. Average analyst was at -.07 for the quarter and they came in at -.02. Margins up with what they said last quarter. We need some revenue. I would expect the analysts to begin the upgrades.

  • Hedge fund needed to purchase 2 million shares, 30% return in very short time period assured! At 13.8 million, 30% is now short. Take a clue from Magnum Hunter, those shorts have lost 100% in a short time period! Where's Soros? He pushed up PVA from 5 to 12 in a few months. Watch and learn longs.

  • Reply to

    Cheezy PR Before Earnings

    by lucreton4 Jan 28, 2014 6:27 PM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jan 29, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    $ 6.50, 7.00 or 7.50 tomorrow, what's your guess? I agree with the PR, why even put that out? Put it out at the same time as the earnings report. The PR is meaningless to investors.

  • jdberwanger jdberwanger Jan 26, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I wouldn't trust Furuqi with a 10 foot pole. You can bet they give big donations to the Democrats. Haven't looked but good chance you will see donations to Schumer, Durbin, Pelosi, etc.

  • Reply to

    The $20 price target

    by con_law_misery Nov 10, 2013 1:01 AM
    jdberwanger jdberwanger Jan 26, 2014 8:17 PM Flag

    Watch and learn come earnings report on Thursday. Last conference call 30 days into the quarter, execs said revenue was up 10% Q over Q as of the date of the call yet they guided revenue up only 1% for the entire quarter. What are the odds they won't beat on the revenue and therefore earnings based on these comments? They would have to be -5% Q over Q for the last 60 days of the quarter to post flat revenue. It aint going to happen. Up $2 share this week, watch and see.

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