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Peabody Energy Corp. Message Board

jdellie 87 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 21 minutes ago Member since: Jun 24, 1998
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  • Gasman has warned you and I am also. If WTI cracks below $80 ALL financial assets tied to OIL will come down in price.......

  • Two days....one over $31 and today $30.98....Only to back off significantly. We're only up because OIL has had a reprieve and the overall market has moved higher. We can be back $28-$29 very quickly. Earnings don't occur until Nov 5th. That's two weeks away and a lot can happen......

  • Reply to

    Upward Price Pressure

    by snugly60031 17 hours ago

    I wish

  • Reply to

    Big Boys Told What to Expect Tomorrow

    by emjacl Oct 23, 2014 10:00 AM

    Today's action was absurd. I had to look to see whether today was the earnings announcement or tomorrow. We were also past ex-dividend. Tomorrow will either be good or dreadful....Let's hope for good......

  • Looking at the # Puts outstanding going out 6 months to 2 years the premiums you have to pay to protect your long stock puts the price down to at least $27.50. The spreads between buyers/sellers is also hugh. This suggests that expectations on the side of 'shorts' favours much lower prices for RIG. I underestimated the devastating impact the collapse in oil prices would have on the whole OIL industry. Officers of this company were SELLING when the stock was at 50 with more selling occurring around $38-$39. The short position on this stock is monstrous and the fundamentals of this company will probably deteriorate more unless by some miracle the oversupply of oil evaporates quickly and the price recovers into the mid nineties to 100. The fact that the stock has recovered to $30.50 and is higher in afterhours is small comfort to me. I was happy to unload 32% of my position today and hedge the balance of my portfolio at a ratio of 2 to 1. I don't view the dividend as being safe and fully expect within 6 months that management will need to cut......That's my assessment.....

  • Used some of my PUT profits to lighten up. Also HEDGED as I said this morning at $29,$30 in case oil turns around and goes back down......Chinese surprise DEMAND #'s may be a short term blip. In any case, we got a gift today. If we get more tomorrow, I may lighten up more...........

  • Not taking any chances here.......We might have been given a gift by going back to $30. Worst thing that can happen is the stock goes back to $32-$35 and I unload the entire position and break even....If it goes down I have a floor at $29......

  • A quick move to $32-$33 might be just enough for LONGS to re-establish portfolio protection at more reasonable prices. The cost for PUTS has gone ballistic with all the fear......

  • Go back about three years ago when COAL was king in everyone's book and now look at most of the companies (ones that are left)........Peabody was at 70. Today is trades hands around 11. Still pays the 8 cent per quarter dividend. The same type of arguments could have been made for short selling with Peabody as it is now for Transocean. I will say though that the two commodities are markedly different and the current selloff will stabilize at some point whether it is 80, 75, or possibly lower. Lower prices at this point will force change......When the change occurs those people that are short will need to react quickly........

  • Shorts hopped right on this one again once we got up over $30 again. The sentiment about RIG is about as horrible as you can get. I agree with Gasman that if there is going to be a dividend cut it will come in 2015. Earnings do matter though and what comes out of the conference call in early November will be managements discussion of what they see in the future next year for the business. A lot of investment decisions will be made. Unfortunately the 'market' is making those decisions now based on what's happening to growth in ( Asia, Europe ), ebola, terrorism, oil price for (WTI, Brent), periodic dayrate reports, # idle rigs, oil inventory #'s, FEAR, etc. 15 Million shares traded again today. They weren't all sellers......

  • jdellie jdellie Oct 17, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    Icahn is not making 10% on this investment and is seriously underwater. If anything, management of this company, including Ichan are scrambling to figure out how they are going to live through this collapse in oil prices, structural changes to the oil market, international oil producers trying to maintain their market share to position the company to survive and prosper going into the future. Its hard for me to believe that people who really understand the oil market didn't see this coming well before June. The question is what does the US Government do to help our domestic oil industry maintain our growing market share. I don't hear anything about that except the Fed chief remarks the other day that seems to have put a temporary floor under the chaos......

  • The fleet report wasn't bad. Maybe the long overdue bounce of a few points is in our future. When a stock does better than the overall market on a truly terrible that says a lot about who is buying....

  • Reply to

    Fleet report

    by akvette89 Oct 15, 2014 6:54 PM
    jdellie jdellie Oct 15, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    Yes, I viewed it positively.

  • Reply to

    What a crash......

    by jdellie Oct 14, 2014 8:21 PM
    jdellie jdellie Oct 15, 2014 7:13 PM Flag

    Glad I wasn't watching the market today. After hours is all over the place....Fear is everywhere. Bottom line,
    oil stocks, riggers, etc held up reasonably well. We'll see what tomorrow brings....

  • Oil sellers believe we're going to $76-$77 and they didn't wasn't anytime today knocking another $3+ off WTI down to $82. I fully expect somewhere in here some buyers are going to step in. If we go up the way we have come down a short term blip back up to $70 certainly is possible. Only people who have strong stomachs might consider buying 2016 calls around $67.50 and hedging with shorter term out of the money calls in case the downdraft continues before leveling off.

  • Everybody wants out.

  • I don't care whether you own RIG, PG, PFE, CAT, COP, FE, EXC, VZ, BBY, BAC like I do. I am not spending one penny more and I am not on margin. I have 20% cash...... Let this market go wherever it needs to. Do not average down. If oil continues to crater down into the mid to high 70's along with other commodities the whole house of cards is also going to come down. I have $30k of covered hedges and wish it were $60k. Don't sell naked puts like a lot of these CNBC experts suggest. You will get clobbered. Just wait. If this market is destined eventually to make higher highs you have to be in the game. Don't give anymore to the sellers.........

  • Saudis have drawn line in the sand with their pronouncements earlier this evening. So we're looking at $80 a barrel, maybe $76-77 for an extended period of time (two years) to knock out American competition. Price war if ever you saw one. We finally start to get the upper hand against a cartel that has bled us dry since the 1970's and they're fighting back with a destructive price war.......No one is going to win this one. This is sheer recklessness.........

  • I lost a fortune with this one when I finally traded out at about $20, two years ago. Did I think we would cross $10. There will be survivors in the coal industry when the dust settles. A return to $40-$70 will never happen as I think too much has happened structurally to permanently change how and when people use Coal. Not in the United States anyway. I remember when this company was on top of the heap and major publications like Barrons were singing the virtues of fantastic cash flow generation. Even after it had cratered down into the 40's people were still believers. At 10 it might be worth investing for the future. Best to all of you who believe.

  • jdellie jdellie Oct 12, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Good posts folks.....Boom/Bust cycles aren't rationale....What has happened overnight has scared the daylights out of a lot of people. The only thing they know how to do is sell now or desparately look to put a floor on their daily depreciating assets. Neither the technical or fundamentals now mean anything. Every time they knock market value off a company it changes how everything else is priced be it debt, future valuation, etc.....Markets need stability to be able to price financial assets fairly. We don't have that now. Any decision to 'buy' now is a guess. This company, like many others, might be a phenomenal investment now, but a decision to buy has to be one with a payoff in mind of two or three years out....

    Sentiment: Buy

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