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CVR Partners, LP Message Board

jdperezsr 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2016 9:31 AM Member since: Jun 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    dollar

    by jdperezsr Jan 28, 2016 7:21 PM
    jdperezsr jdperezsr Jan 29, 2016 9:31 AM Flag

    I agree but the market says otherwise and if it's one thing I have learned is the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. I have been so tempted to buy a boat load on margin. I will wait for distribution to return and the plants to become more operational.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jdperezsr by jdperezsr Jan 28, 2016 7:21 PM Flag

    Over the past five years, both the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee have depreciated against the dollar. This means that it takes more of the local currency to purchase a single dollar. As of January 27, it would take ~4 real to buy $1 compared to ~2.4 Brazilian real around the same date in 2015. The real depreciated by ~39% YoY (year-over-year).

    As of January 27, it would take ~62 rupees to buy $1 compared to ~68 rupees around the same date in 2015. In comparison to the real, the rupee did much better, depreciating only 7.4% YoY.

    The currency weakness affects the demand as customers may delay their purchases in hopes for the local currency to improve against the dollar. In some cases, they may switch to another crop that can cut their fertilizer usage.

    Outlook

    With that said, we are not seeing the market anticipating a reversal in trend in the rupee or the real against the dollar in 2016. Scotiabank forecasts the rupee to stabilize around 68 rupees per dollar in 2016 while the real could increase from 4 real per dollar to 4.3 real by the end of 2016.

    We believe that currency could continue to remain a headwind for global fertilizer players such as the Mosaic Company (MOS), Potash Corporation (POT), Israel Chemicals (ICL), and Agrium (AGU) in 2016. The Market Vector Agribusiness ETF (MOO), which invests about 30% of its portfolio in agricultural chemicals, should also be impacted.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jdperezsr by jdperezsr Jan 28, 2016 7:16 PM Flag

    Corn price outlook
    The average price of corn in 2015 was about $3.80, which is far from the levels between 2010–2013. As of January 28, corn prices were $3.90 per bushel. For the full year 2016, the analysts are expecting corn prices to stabilize around $3.87 per bushel. They are forecasted to increase to $4.07 per bushel in 2017.

    While the 2016 corn prices are forecasted to be at the 2015 levels, the increasing pressure of additional phosphate capacity increases the risk of having oversupply in the market. This may negatively impact the phosphate prices if producers decide to keep their production levels high to maintain their market share.

    This impacts the revenues of companies such as Potash Corporation (POT), the Mosaic Company (MOS), CF Industries (CF), and Agrium (AGU). These companies are also a part of the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO), which invests approximately 30% of its portfolio in the agricultural chemicals industry.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • to set things on fire. Sounds to me like they are hoping for a miracle on a data subset.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    between now and end of the year is a good time

    by jdperezsr Dec 11, 2015 10:47 AM
    jdperezsr jdperezsr Dec 14, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    anyones guess but I am picking up some. Sold some in Oct for tax loss and now I can buy them back without the wash sale affecting me. Bought some today and will buy more going into Christmas

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • to accumulate some shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • their bloated pay checks.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    My predictions are coming true

    by grandsportstage1 Nov 18, 2015 1:19 PM
    jdperezsr jdperezsr Dec 4, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    good call brother. It is rare that I see someone totally nail it. Good job

    Sentiment: Sell

  • I would love to hear their explanation for that. Oh, and let's be clear, one dollar is really one penny after the 1 for 100 reverse split so an 8 dollar move is like an .08 cent move so why the IIROC want's a comment is beyond me...idiots.

  • jdperezsr jdperezsr Nov 11, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    Well if we had an activist investor like Daniel Lobe it would. It's too bad no big boys are here to make these guys do what they should in the "best interest of the shareholders. Take a look at YRCW trucking company. Their CEO did away with his salary until the company turned the corner. This CEO is a joke.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • If you reject the idea of a share repurchase program to conserve cash as you say, then why not pay yourselves in AEZS shares if you are so confident in the company going forward. Heck I even say double your salaries as along as it is in shares. I would vote for that.

    Sentiment: Sell

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