This is why I have said S/SB should have offered $5+ right out of the gate; having done so would have given them a better shot at having Clearwire "in tow" going into their own vote. A lower $ bid from SB that has Clearwire as a controlled asset, is theoretically "worth more" than a higher $ bid (from DISH).... but Son did not choose to take that path, probably at the urging of his stooge, I mean puppet Herr Hesssssssee........
1. FCC rules Clearwire's spectrum subject to the carrier caps could lessen interest in the 2.5 Ghz CLWR holds
2. Ergen makes a deal with S/SB to go away "quietly" with a 25% piece of Clearwire and spectrum. These guys may yet find a way to all play nice in the sandbox together, sooner or later they will realize cutting a deal with Ergen may be the cheapest way to secure control of the majority of Clearwire's spectrum
3. Crest or Mt. Kellet consortium caves at $4.50 or $5.00 and sells their shares to S/SB thus assuring the 75% needed to gain full control going forward
4. PDB acts as advisor to DISH who folds upon hearing "risks" associated with bidding higher than $4.40 a share and S/SB reverts to $2.97 offer and tells minority holders "FINAL, FINAL OFFER!"
5. Hesssssee awakes from his stupor and realizes his job is teetering due to poor judgment and execution on all fronts, and convinces Son that he can deliver the minority votes needed at $3.40..... I think we've been down that road already
6. All bets are off, DISH continues bidding higher until Son says "uncle" or packs his bags for Japan and decides that Clearwire and Sprint were all a very bad nightmare.... the breakup fee should keep him from
committing hari-kari however.... ALL IMO - JDS - hold on for $6+ Charlie will deliver!!
As many here have posted, if S/SB had started out in the $5 range, the deal "probably" would have already have been done. Going from $2 range to $5+ bid would've seemed like a "fair value" deal had they offered that to start but who knows. The way I see it, as more time elapses, S/SB becomes more desperate because they NEED Clearwire's spectrum to build out their LTE network. DISH has spectrum, and would LIKE to have additional spectrum to give them adequate bandwidth for years to come, but their NEED is not as great #$%$/SB's.
So we "hurry up and wait" as the story further unfolds.....
correct as usual Smeth, keep 'em coming!
Smeth, I think the crux of the matter is that Sprint has the mentality that they are ENTITLED to the spoils of Clearwire, based on their long history of financial support, wholesale partner for WiMax, etc. We all know Sprint has dumped Billions into Clearwire, but as Spok has pointed out, it has been Hesse's mission all along to denigrate the value of Clearwire rather than "build it up" and create a WIN/WIN for the two companies. For whatever reason, Sprint chose to keep Clearwire in a stranglehold, rather than attempt to help it and raise equity value whereby Sprint would actually benefit in price appreciation for the shares they owned. Why didn't Hesse INCREASE the value of Clearwire, and in the process help SPRINT shareholders realize a higher value for those shares they owned? That is what most companies with a subsidiary would do, not drive it into "almost bankruptcy" to get it back cheaply....
My take on it anyway..... btw, keep up the good posts, I wish some WSJ , Bloomberg or Barrons journalists would take on this story of "bribery, corporate chicanery, etc." to expose to the entire investing world what is REALLY happening here.....
you are correct, T is more likely to work with DISH rather than try to "screw" Sprint for stopping the T-Mob deal... but you never know, they could be waiting to put in an 11th hr bid and "screw" Sprint in the process.....
they're both spineless puppets, they have to wait and see what they are both "told" to say before they make any kind of comments....
where did you come from? Showed up about 2 weeks ago and immediately became the board "expert" on what's going on.... Some are peeved by Smeth and his "frequent" posts, I say "nice job Smeth" for keeping issues front and center, especially those which involve the very apparent abuse of power, illegality, bribery, and so forth with this attempted merger by Sprint.
Lighten up PDB, you could learn a bit from the posters here who have been around the block a few more times than you on this puppy, and I'm excluding myself from the "experts" we have here.....
is going to be tough today...
I said I expected a new bid by s/sb later today, they have probably instructed CLWR not to comment on the new DISH bid until S/SB puts forth "something".... All IMO - JDS
Christmas in May??
If they lose you KNOW they will try to play the Lightsquared card again, not that it's going to get them anywhere....
Charley is now in the driver's seat. You KNOW that he has been accumulating as many shares as he possibly could over the past two months, he supposedly owns $800 Million of CLWR debt, he has the superior CASH offer for Clear, he is doing everything RIGHT to position DISH correctly to win the CLWR enterprise, as well as Sprint. Is he doing it alone or are their very deep pockets "to the right of DISH" as Ed surmises? Mr. Son has some real "splainin" to do to his Softbank shareholders back in Japan, if this deal for Clwr and/or Sprint starts negatively affecting the shareprice and shareholders back home......All IMO - JDS
they want to show they "are in control" of the bid process, and CE's new CASH bid of 4.40 is "illusory"!
Sprint will rebound once they clean house of (mis) management, and Joan will profit quite nicely I'm sure. Could be she went short Sprint, too!
will be at play in Overland Park this morning in anticipation of the phone call from Mr. Son......
exactly! It appears Son "misread" Ergen and Charley's resolve to "win" this hand.... Again, if Son had bid $5+ to start with, he probably would have won on the first vote, would've only cost him $1.4 Billion more, now if he wants it, the price tag is likely to cost him $3 - $4 BILLION more! Bring it on sukkas!
hang on tight, they may drop this to 3.75 or so before working it back up figuring there will be weak hands satisfied w taking a profit from low 3's up to 3.75
market digesting the offer, don't forget, there could be offshore accounts being directed to short the pizzz out of this to keep the price down (for ANY of the parties in the bidding) All IMO - JDS
gets us to $5+ as market will anticipate a higher bid, even from DISH. Spectrum NOT subject to caps by the FCC will DOUBLE in value because ANYONE (including VZ and T) can buy as much as they want/need. At least that's my understanding of it...Indano what say you on this?