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Perion Network Ltd. Message Board

jdsomers 67 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Mar 15, 2000
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  • jdsomers jdsomers 12 hours ago Flag

    Well, that price would be great if you are right!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers 12 hours ago Flag

    I sure hope you are right that the WIN could trade that high. That would leave it with a 4.11% dividend yield. It would be nice if that was enough to support the price at that level for the operating company, but I'm not sure its current earnings could support that price. The company though the CSAL could be worth about $42 per share based on comparable company EBITDAs, but it will be lower if just traded on comparable yields, but I hope not as low as you are suggesting, That would be a yield over 9%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers 12 hours ago Flag

    Yes, that is my opinion. However, if the pricing of the new CSAL doesn't hold up, then all bets are off. I thought the yield on the debt it just placed seemed a bit high and that could be competition for the stock, itself, so I'm leaning toward the lower side of my CSAL price estimate at this point.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers 12 hours ago Flag

    jbloss2, that is rather pessimistic on CSAL Other similar REITS trade in the 7-8% yield range. There is no way that WIN can trade for $24. That would mean its value represents $4 per current share. No one thinks that the operating company is worth half of the current price. Most of the asset value (and virtually all of the physical assets go to CSAL. The new WIN will have to valued on its potential for actual earnings. Your price would assume at least $1.50 per share earnings at current market multiples to even attempt to support a $24 valuation. Do you think that is realistic? Also, at that price the yield on WIN would only be 2.5%. Is that high enough for this business?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    financing placed

    by smulloy98 Apr 16, 2015 3:01 PM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 16, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    I haven't followed the current debt on WIN. Is the new financing costing less, more or the same as compared to its current note/bond rates?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers Apr 16, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    I would say your guess is not even close. If I have to pick a specific price, I would say that CSAL will close at $36.00. If I were giving a range, I would go with $34-$42. WIN is a bit trickier, but I would guess about $8.00 per share. For a range, it is likely to be between $7.00-$10. By the way based on my specific guesses, the current value of WIN would equal $8.53, and it could end up as much as 20% higher than that fairly soon. If CSAL does grow by acquiring more assets, then its share price can grow after that and so can WIN if it manages to make a profit as the slimmed down operating company.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers Apr 16, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    Rebuying at these lower prices would be smart. The lower price is likely from just this type of confusion and the parts will be worth more than the whole -- maybe quite a bit more in percentage terms.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So who did they pump it for?

    by floopyball_442 Apr 15, 2015 3:44 PM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 16, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    We are saying the same thing as you now pointed out the actual situation to readers. I was referring to those who were thinking of a normal ex-date that does occur before the record date (and does appear to be confusing people in this case). They can refer to either earlier date, but they no longer have any of the shares if they have sold already, and get all of the shares if they buy now. As you said, nothing changes as far as trading the shares until the distribution date, which makes the "true" ex-date the day after that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So who did they pump it for?

    by floopyball_442 Apr 15, 2015 3:44 PM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 15, 2015 9:12 PM Flag

    No. The record and ex dates mean nothing in this case. After those dates, WIN still trades as the original shares but changed into the package which is the new WIN plus the new REIT, which then reverse split, at the same time as the distribution. That is how the exchanges trade a stock that involves a spinoff or recapitulation of shares. Anyone buying up to the distribution date gets the whole package (just like those who held prior to the ex and record dates). After the distribution date, then the shares (as reverse split) trade individually.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers Apr 15, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Probably should not wait much longer, but another day or two might not hurt The confused people have probably already sold, and as more investors and/or professionals understand that buying now still get them the whole package, the price should move back up. Either way, the increase value will be there once the distribution date passes and the new stocks trade on their own.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So who did they pump it for?

    by floopyball_442 Apr 15, 2015 3:44 PM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 15, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    The deal is people do not understand the value of the spinoffs and are confused by the ex-dividend date (which is irrelevant in this case) and wondering if they get the new stock at the distribution date so they hold off buying. At this point, they may also delay buying because they can wait and buy either piece of the company separately if they prefer, although they will be likely paying a higher price than they could get as part of the current "package." Bottom line, confusion always dries up purchases and makes the short term trading unpredictable.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers Apr 15, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    You are incorrect. The WIN that is trading is technically the old WIN plus due bills for the new WIN and the new CS&L. It is the same package as before. For trading purposes, it is the same "shares" as before until distribution date. That's how it works for spinoffs rather than cash dividends. If you sold yesterday (or the day before), you still sold the whole package one way or the other. It is basically invisible to your brokerage account. Whomever purchased from you either got the original shares and will get everything or they got the new win plus "due bills" for the other shares and will end up with the same thing. You have nothing left.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally dumped my WIN

    by ancientphotons Apr 10, 2015 1:28 PM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 14, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Sorry, your math is wrong. On the equivalent shares you hold, you new dividend amount was going to total $3480 per year, not $2980. The new WIN shares are going to pay 60 cents per year (not 10 as you are showing). That is the equivalent to .10 per old share -- perhaps that is where you became confused.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Timber.......

    by mpcs2007 Apr 8, 2015 10:39 AM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 8, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Nonsense. the gyrations are mostly caused by the funds exiting and adding holdings due to the changes in the indexes. Brokerage firms and investors are starting to realized the value of the pieces that will be in the market after the distribution so overall there should be a firming trend in the price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I be a buyer?

    by beartrap1941 Apr 6, 2015 10:15 AM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 7, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    I should also add that you will probably be better off buying sooner rather than later because this is starting to be recognized -- one brokerage has suggested a $10 target. However, you do not have to be concerned about the ex-date (except perhaps for the approximately .06 dividend) because the shares of WIN will continue to trade including the spun off shares until the distribution date. Technically, the trading is for the ex-shares PLUS due bills for the others, so it is still the same "package" until the distribution date.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I be a buyer?

    by beartrap1941 Apr 6, 2015 10:15 AM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 7, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Yes, you should be a buyer at this low price as the parts seemed destined to be worth more than the whole. You can even sell in the money puts if you want to get in cheaper and hedge your bet a bit more.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I be a buyer?

    by beartrap1941 Apr 6, 2015 10:15 AM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 7, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    To repeat the earlier posting: If you have 1000, you will be left with 200 shares of CSAL, paying an annual dividend of $2.40 per share, and 166 shares of WIN, paying an annual dividend of $0.60 per share, cash for 2/3 of the value of one new WIN share and a $60.00 cash dividend, representing the final old WIN prorated dividend for this partial quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cost basis for CSAL

    by nnrpro48 Apr 7, 2015 11:47 AM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 7, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    No. You will have to wait until the first day of trading to figure it out. Based on the average of the high/low trading for each security (CSAL and WIN), you will then divide the CSAL average by 5 and the WIN average by 6. Using those two figures will give you the ratio to use to divide your original basis in WIN between the two stocks. As WIN will be coming up with a figure for the new WIN shares to pay cash for fractional shares, you would probably be very safe with the IRS to use that price for the new WIN for your ratio calculation (instead of the high/low average for the first trading day, but they may be the same thing they use).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I be a buyer?

    by beartrap1941 Apr 6, 2015 10:15 AM
    jdsomers jdsomers Apr 7, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Do you know how to read? This has been explained in detail by the company and with that exact example on this board. If you go back and read the responses to the writer that has 1000 shares, the responses told you EXACTLY what you end up with.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsomers jdsomers Apr 3, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    They do not go out in the afternoon. Margin calls are always sent out before the market opens based on the previous day's close. As far as forced covering, different brokerages act at different times if the customer fails to cover the call, but the latest time I have seen is around 2:30 PM.

    Sentiment: Buy

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