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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

jdsstevens55 43 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: May 4, 2009
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  • Reply to

    New Director of Investor Relations

    by neuworld3 Oct 20, 2014 10:45 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 16 hours ago Flag

    Except for those last two positions. CycleGlide an infomercial type company. I think Scott is on the rebound. Anyway, as you have seen on my IV comments, it is being totally overhyped. Qmingin above has the right take on this hire.

  • Reply to

    New Director of Investor Relations

    by neuworld3 Oct 20, 2014 10:45 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 16 hours ago Flag

    Finally, something you and I agree on. Well done with your post.

  • Reply to

    New Director of Investor Relations

    by neuworld3 Oct 20, 2014 10:45 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 16 hours ago Flag

    Because it is not a position that impacts the company that much. You and others need to take a look at the Fortune 2000 companies, just do a sample of their websites and show me the ones with an IR person in the "Key Leadership". Good luck with that.

  • Reply to

    Investors Relations Job Description.

    by lfyoung59 Oct 20, 2014 3:48 PM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 16 hours ago Flag

    S9, the problem is that it matters but not that much. Are you saying it matters more than drug development, pipeline progression, sales and marketing? I don't think so. Again, people are going overboard with the hype on this position.

  • Reply to

    Investors Relations Job Description.

    by lfyoung59 Oct 20, 2014 3:48 PM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 16 hours ago Flag

    You are a loser. Cindy McGee did the ball girl thing as a hobby. She has a BS degree and several years of experience. Except for the last two years. Check out CycleGlide, you know the infomercial sheet you see on TV. Man, you are an idiot of the highest order.

  • Reply to

    Investors Relations Job Description.

    by lfyoung59 Oct 20, 2014 3:48 PM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 16 hours ago Flag

    Bullshit on the IR person impacting SP. They don't for Apple, Intel, Google, and on and on. You trying to say otherwise shows you not to be that smart.

    Point out to me in the exaggerated list above what would cause the SP to rise. Nothing is the answer.

  • Reply to

    IMS Week Ended 10/10/14... Unconfirmed

    by gscgaryc Oct 17, 2014 10:25 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 18, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    Not really. It is us the investors that created the thought that Belviq was going to fly off the shelves based on many false assumptions. I for one made some of those false assumptions along with many other Arena longs on this board and the IVB. Until most overweight/obese people really become unhappy with their being overweight/obese, the numbers are going to grow at a slower pace than most of initially thought.

    All you need to do is go out to several restaurants and observe the overweight/obese people and you won't see any of them crying or acting sad. You will see them consume large quantities of food and that makes them happy. Based on that realization that all of us need to come to grips with, Belviq is going to grow but at a slower pace. With a SC indication, belviq sales will grow at a faster rate because there are more people that smoke that are willing to try something to stop smoking vs. people willing to stop eating. Yes, there are the health issues, but the reality is that their Doctors are more concerned about it than the people are. In addition, when a Doctor still sticks to the "D+E" mantra, it turns people off.

  • Reply to

    IMS Week Ended 10/10/14... Unconfirmed

    by gscgaryc Oct 17, 2014 10:25 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 18, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    No, HR, the only thing that counts is actual bottle sales and if Symphony script numbers are higher, then the bottle sales will be higher and the logic that revenue per script is lower with Symphony is a bunch of pure hogwash created by Spencer Osborne. Last quarter there was an inventory adjustment that affected the actual bottle sales for that quarter.

    The point is that nobody knows is that whose script numbers are closer to forecasting the actual number of bottles sold and in my keeping track, Symphony numbers are more accurate. The other point is not using revenue per script but revenue per bottle. That is determined by subtracting out the discounts, other adjustments -- free samples, which everyone knows is a .5 bottle from the gross revenues. The credit for the free samples has to work it's way back from Eisai to the Distributor and finally to the retailer. Of course Arena gets paid back the cost of producing and handling of that free sample.

    Based on the Symphony script numbers so far, I project 140K-150K bottles. Based on the IMS numbers, I project 125K-135K bottles. Thus, the total revenue is greater based on Symphony vs. IMS numbers.

    But in the end, it is all circle jerk stuff in that both Eisai and Arena know how many bottles are shipped to the distribution network and in the end that is the only number that counts.
    Finally, more scripts should equal more bottles. That is correct logic.

  • Reply to

    IMS Week Ended 10/10/14... Unconfirmed

    by gscgaryc Oct 17, 2014 10:25 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 17, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Symphony's numbers are the only ones that count. They are more accurate than the BS IMS numbers. At least 25% under-reported. Basically who Freakin cares! Show me the Symphony!

    The morons on the IVB are going rabid led by one of the biggest moron to frequent message boards.

  • jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 15, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    HR - don't complicate what is really simple, throw all that analyst BS out the window. Forget about price to book, WS is only interested in revenue growth. Yes revenue growth will increase book value. But going thru that process is not necessary.

  • jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 15, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Maybe by your thought process ADP811 orphan drug status was going to hike price by 20% but that is not rational thinking. WS wants revenue not potential of revenue at this time. Orphan drug status does not move the timeline along any quicker. Yes, there are tax advantages and Arena could apply for grants, etc. but really nothing there to hike the price by 20%. Solid SC results could hike price by 20-30% because WS understands it can be prescribed off-label for SC as Eisai and Arena move it forward. The price we are at today is in the range we should be at this point in time. But again, every quarter where we see at least 50% bottle sales growth will drive the stock price higher. Nothing magical and all of the other stuff you mentioned, plus patents (sorry S9) don't produce one cent of revenue, when they do, they will help the price but until that happens only Bel revenue is mainly the only thing (SC is the exception) that WS cares about.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 15, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    The current price is exactly where it should be. If bottle sales growth is 50% for Q3 vs Q2, that should allow another 50 cents to a dollar growth in the stock price. When Arena exceeds $10M+ in Bel revenue only which will happen in Q4, the stock price will move to between $5-$6. If BelRev is at $15M or greater, price will move to $6-$7. Solid SC study results will bump price at least a buck on top of the revenue bumps.

    Don't listen to an over analyzer like Hedge_Risk. It ain't all that hard. Now there are people who think the share value should be at $8-$12 but at this time there is nothing to support that price level. It is very simple and we don't need a self proclaimed genius like HR telling us anything. WS wants higher revenue growth per quarter and as the trending of that revenue marches Arena to break-even and then profitability, WS will reward Arena with higher stock price values. It is as simple as that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 15, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    Continuously a moron is all you are Dr #$%$!

  • Reply to

    IMS Scripts ending week of 9/26/2014

    by sharonconk Oct 3, 2014 10:15 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 3, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Let's see if we can get the thumbs down number to over ten! You dummies are not working hard enough.

    Anyway, the good news is that because the Addressable Market for Belviq is very large, there are enough people that will over time take Belviq because it works and it will still become a BB drug. In the meantime, the EM device will fail and anyone investing in that piece of #$%$ and it is a piece of #$%$ needs to have their brain examined.

    Now get it up to 10+ dumb arises!

  • Reply to

    IMS Scripts ending week of 9/26/2014

    by sharonconk Oct 3, 2014 10:15 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 3, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Rosh Hashanah had nothing to do with the numbers being down. You are entitled to your opinion and normally you have excellent opinions but this one is a stretch at best.

  • Reply to

    IMS Scripts ending week of 9/26/2014

    by sharonconk Oct 3, 2014 10:15 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 3, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    It won't get approval, it is not sound and if it is approved, it will be a complete and utter failure. Take my word on that.

  • Reply to

    IMS Scripts ending week of 9/26/2014

    by sharonconk Oct 3, 2014 10:15 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 3, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    The EnteroMedics device will be a complete and utter failure. The weight loss numbers are overstated and most Doctors will shy away from it. If you have read any of my posts where from my observation experience over the last few months (not scientific at all) is that most people that are obese/overweight don't have a problem being obese/overweight. Still too many Doctors that think "Diet and Exercise" is the only way to go. The device in my educated opinion will be a debacle of laughable proportions.

  • Reply to

    Per John Galt Symphony numbers

    by sharonconk Oct 3, 2014 10:28 AM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Oct 3, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Symphony per my sources does have better tracking than IMS. Now, we are not talking that much better but more scripts leads to more bottle sales and in the end that is all that counts.
    Spencer uses iMS mainly because that is what Arena/Eisai use. The fact that they use IMS numbers does not mean that Symphony numbers are not accurate. As I have always said, who cares what service that Arena/Eisai use because since they count revenue as POP - Point of Purchase - it is based on how many bottles were shipped to Eisai's Distribution Network. Since it is Arena and Eisai doing the shipments, they actually know what the gross revenue is going to be. Example: If Eisai in a quarter ships 150K bottles to their Distribution Network, that is $30M in gross revenue. $200,00 (rounded up a few cents) times 150,000. Simple as that.

    Script numbers tells us how many potential people are using Belviq but because a written script might have one 30 day supply and 2 or 5 refills. It is hard to estimate the number of bottles. But that is at our level. The reality is that Eisai/Arena know exactly how many bottles are shipped and if they say otherwise, then they are full of sheet.

    The accounting that comes into play is how many samples were given out in a quarter (.5 bottle per sample); how many people used the $75.00 discount card, inventory returns for various reasons, etc.

    Last quarter 88K bottles were shipped but we also know that there was an inventory adjustment that took place.The amount of the inventory adjustment in bottles did subtract from how many bottles were actually shipped by Arena/Eisai.

    Script numbers are important in that they tell us that if they are growing, logic dictates that bottle sales will grow. By how much is the question and as stated above, it is hard to estimate accurately by analysts and retail investors. My projection is that bottle growth will at least 50% greater than Q2 or 132K+ Bottles.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The ObesityWeek Audience -

    by raqfield Sep 29, 2014 4:12 PM
    jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Sep 29, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    Thanks for the informative post.

  • jdsstevens55 jdsstevens55 Sep 29, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    Thanks Dr. Dan for the detailed post. Again as always, you show your importance to this board.

ARNA
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